Türkiye'de hidroelektrik enerji potansiyeli araştırması ve doğal gazdan hidroelektriğe geçiş politikası

Year 2018, Volume: 24 Issue: 6, 1014 - 1023, 18.12.2018

Mutlu Yaşar

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye'nin hidroelektrik
potansiyeli literatür ve Devlet Su İşleri planları çerçevesinde
araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen hidrolik potansiyele dayanarak iki senaryo
oluşturulmuştur. İlk senaryoda, mevcut eğilimin sürdürülmesi durumunda elektrik
üretimi için gerekli yatırımlar değerlendirilirken, ikinci senaryoda yeni
hesaplanan 156 TWh'lik potansiyele sahip olan hidroelektrik santrallerin
elektrik üretimindeki payının %35 olması durumu incelenmiştir. Türkiye'nin
hidroelektrik potansiyelinin literatürde belirtilen 140 TWh değerinden %12
fazla yani 156 TWh olduğu ortaya konulmuştur. Senaryo 1'e göre elektrik
üretiminde hidrolik kaynakların payı %25'ten %26'ya çıkarken doğal gazın payı
değişmemiştir. Senaryo 2'ye göre doğal gazdan üretilen elektriğin payı %42'den
%30'a düşerken, hidroelektriğin payı %26'dan %35'e yükselmiştir. Sonuçlar,
Senaryo 2'nin Senaryo 1'e göre 2043 yılı için %32 daha karlı olacağını ve
kazancın bugünkü değerinin yaklaşık 25 milyar dolar mertebesinde olacağını
göstermiştir.

Keywords

Enerji politikası, Yenilenebilir enerji kaynakları, Hidroelektrik

Investigation of hydropower energy potential and policy shift from natural gas to hydropower energy in Turkey

Abstract

This
study investigates the possible hydropower potential of Turkey, using
literature and the General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works plans. Based on
the obtained hydraulic potential, two scenarios are proposed. The first
scenario is an electricity investment and share of electricity production
continuing as a historical trend, while the second scenario is the increase in
the share of hydropower plants in total electricity production as 35%,
including a newly calculated potential of 156 TWh. The results show that the
hydropower potential of Turkey increased from 140 to 156 TWh with a level of
12%. Scenario I shows that the total share of electricity production from
hydropower changed from 25% to 26% but natural gas did not change. Scenario II
shows that natural gas power production will decrease from 42% to 30% and
hydropower production increase from 26% to 35% in 2023. The results also show
that if Scenario II is applied, the cumulative present value of gain will be
approximately 32% in 2043 with a savings of about $25 billion.

Keywords

Energy policy, Renewable energy sources, Hydropower

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