Türkiye'de hidroelektrik enerji potansiyeli araştırması ve doğal gazdan hidroelektriğe geçiş politikası

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 6, 1014 - 1023, 18.12.2018

Mutlu Yaşar

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye'nin hidroelektrik
potansiyeli literatür ve Devlet Su İşleri planları çerçevesinde
araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen hidrolik potansiyele dayanarak iki senaryo
oluşturulmuştur. İlk senaryoda, mevcut eğilimin sürdürülmesi durumunda elektrik
üretimi için gerekli yatırımlar değerlendirilirken, ikinci senaryoda yeni
hesaplanan 156 TWh'lik potansiyele sahip olan hidroelektrik santrallerin
elektrik üretimindeki payının %35 olması durumu incelenmiştir. Türkiye'nin
hidroelektrik potansiyelinin literatürde belirtilen 140 TWh değerinden %12
fazla yani 156 TWh olduğu ortaya konulmuştur. Senaryo 1'e göre elektrik
üretiminde hidrolik kaynakların payı %25'ten %26'ya çıkarken doğal gazın payı
değişmemiştir. Senaryo 2'ye göre doğal gazdan üretilen elektriğin payı %42'den
%30'a düşerken, hidroelektriğin payı %26'dan %35'e yükselmiştir. Sonuçlar,
Senaryo 2'nin Senaryo 1'e göre 2043 yılı için %32 daha karlı olacağını ve
kazancın bugünkü değerinin yaklaşık 25 milyar dolar mertebesinde olacağını
göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enerji politikası, Yenilenebilir enerji kaynakları, Hidroelektrik

Investigation of hydropower energy potential and policy shift from natural gas to hydropower energy in Turkey

Öz

This
study investigates the possible hydropower potential of Turkey, using
literature and the General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works plans. Based on
the obtained hydraulic potential, two scenarios are proposed. The first
scenario is an electricity investment and share of electricity production
continuing as a historical trend, while the second scenario is the increase in
the share of hydropower plants in total electricity production as 35%,
including a newly calculated potential of 156 TWh. The results show that the
hydropower potential of Turkey increased from 140 to 156 TWh with a level of
12%. Scenario I shows that the total share of electricity production from
hydropower changed from 25% to 26% but natural gas did not change. Scenario II
shows that natural gas power production will decrease from 42% to 30% and
hydropower production increase from 26% to 35% in 2023. The results also show
that if Scenario II is applied, the cumulative present value of gain will be
approximately 32% in 2043 with a savings of about $25 billion.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Energy policy, Renewable energy sources, Hydropower

Kaynakça

• Hepbasli A, Ozgener O. ”Turkey’s renewable energy sources: Part 1. historical development”. Energy Sources, 26(10), 961-969, 2004.
• Ozgener O. “A review of blade structures of swtss in the aegean region and performance analysis”. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 9(1), 85-99, 2005.
• Akdeniz RC, Acaroglu M, Hepbasli A. “Cotton stalk as a potential energy source”. Energy Sources, 26(1), 65-75, 2004.
• Erdogdu E. “An analysis of turkish hydropower policy”. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15(1), 689-696. 2011.
• Toklu E, Güney MS, Isık M, Comaklı O, Kaygusuz K. “Energy production, consumption, policies and recent developments in Turkey”. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14(4), 1172-1186, 2010.
• Capik M, Yılmaz AO, Cavusoglu I. “Hydropower for sustainable energy development in turkey: the small hydropower case of the eastern black sea region”. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(8), 6160-6172, 2012.
• Bakir NN. “Turkey’s Hydropower Potential and Review of Electricity Generation Policies from EU Perspective”. http://www.ere.com.tr/pdf/HYDRO_POL_PREZ_EN.pdf (15.01.2016).
• Yuksek O, Kaygusuz K. “Small hydropower plants as a renewable energy source”. Energy Sources, 1(3), 279-290, 2006.
• Kaygusuz K. “Renewable and sustainable energy use in turkey: A review”. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 6(4), 339-366, 2002.
• Yuksek O, Komurcu MI, Yuksel I, Kaygusuz K. “The role of hydropower in meeting turkey’s electric energy demand”. Energy Policy, 34(17), 3093-3103, 2006.
• Devlet Su İşleri. “Devlet Su İşleri Genel Müdürlüğü”. http://www.dsi.gov.tr/faaliyetler/hessu-kullanim-anlasmalari (16.01.2015).
• Berkun M. “Hydroelectric potential and environmental effects of multidam hydropower projects in Turkey”. Energy for Sustainable Development, 14(4), 320-329,2010.
• Dursun B, Gokcol C. “The role of hydroelectric power and contribution of small hydropower plants for sustainable development in Turkey”. Renewable Energy, 36(4), 1227-1235, 2011.
• Yuksel I. “Renewable energy status of electricity generation and future prospect hydropower in Turkey”. Renewable Energy, 50, 1037-1043, 2013.
• Yüksek Ö. "Reevaluation of Turkey's hydropower potential and electric energy demand". Energy Policy, 3 (9),3374-3382, 2008.
• Turkish Electricity Transmission Company. “Turkey Electricity Energy 5-Year Generation Capacity Projection 2015-2019” http://www.teias.gov.tr/YayinRapor/APK/projeksiyon/KAPASITEPROJEKSIYONU2015.pdf (08.02.2016).
• Turkish Statistical Institute. “Electricity Generation and Shares by Energy Resources”. http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreIstatistikTablo.do?istab_id=1578 (08.02.2016)
• Electricity Generation Company. “Electricity Generation Sector Report” http://www.enerji.gov.tr/File/?path=ROOT%2F1%2FDocuments%2FSekt%C3%B6r+Raporu%2FSektor_Raporu_EUAS_2011.pdf (08.02.2016).
• Melikoglu M. “Hydropower in Turkey: Analysis in the view of vision 2023”. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 25, 503-510,2013.
• Energy Market Regulatory Authority. “Total Unit Investment Amounts by Source“. http://www3.epdk.org.tr/index.php/epdk-yayinrapor/elektrik-dogalgaz-verileri/11-icerik/819-epd-kaynakbazindabirimyatirim(08.02.2016).
• Turkish Court of Accounts. “Accountability Report 2013”. http://www.sayistay.gov.tr/rapor/kit/2013/17-E%C3%9CA%C5%9E%202013.pdf (08.02.2016).
• Akkuyu Electricity Generation. “Akkuyu Nükleer“. http://www.akkunpp.com/index.php (08.02.2016).