Uluslararası Ekonomik İlişkilerin Türkiye’de Sabit Sermaye Oluşumu Üzerine Etkileri

Year 2024, Volume: 13 Issue: 1, 56 - 68, 24.06.2024

Polad Aliyev , Melahat Batu Ağırkaya , Şenol Çelik

Abstract

Araştırmamızın amacı, Türkiye’de dış ekonomik ilişkilerin sabit sermaye oluşumu üzerine etkisini incelemektir. Bu amaçla, Dünya Bankasından elde edilen 1987-2022 dönemini kapsayan sabit sermaye oluşumu, ihracat, ithalat, dış dünyadan ülkeye ve ülkeden dış dünyaya yapılan doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, dış borçlar, net yabancı varlıklar değişkenlerinin yıllık verileri kullanılmıştır. Verilerin analizi için gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif sınır testi (ARDL) yaklaşımı uygun görülmüştür. Uygulanan test değişkenler arasında uzun dönem ilişkisinin var olduğunu doğrulamıştır. Uzun dönem katsayılarına göre, bağımlı değişken üzerinde pozitif bir etkiye sahip olan ithalat, negatif bir etkiye sahip yurtdışına yapılan doğrudan yatırımlar dışında diğer değişkenlerin anlamlı bir etkisinin bulunmadığı belirlenmiştir. Kısa dönem katsayıları incelendiğinde, ithalat, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve dış borçlar değişkenlerinin sabit sermaye oluşumu üzerinde anlamlı pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğu görülmektedir. Ayrıca, ülkeden yurtdışına yapılan doğrudan yatırımların mevcut değerinin bağımlı değişken üzerine olumsuz bir etkisi olduğu, ancak gecikmeli değerinin olumlu bir etki gösterdiği tespit edilmiştir. Net yabancı varlıkların ise anlamlı bir etkisinin olmadığı gözlenmiştir.

Keywords

İhracat,, Sabit sermaye,, Büyüme,, Borçlar

The Effects of International Economic Relations on the Fixed Capital Formation in Turkey Abstract

Abstract

The aim of our research is to analyse the effect of foreign economic relations on fixed capital formation in Turkey. For this purpose, annual data on fixed capital formation, exports, imports, foreign direct investment (outflow and inflow), foreign debt, and net foreign assets variables obtained from the World Bank for the period 1987–2022 are used. Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test (ARDL) approach was deemed appropriate for the analysis of the data. The applied test confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables. According to the long-run coefficients, except for imports, which have a positive effect on the dependent variable, and outflow of direct investments, which have a negative effect, other variables do not have a significant effect. When the short-run coefficients are analysed, it is seen that imports, foreign direct investments (inflow), and external debt variables have a significant positive effect on fixed capital formation. Moreover, it is determined that the current value of direct investments (outflow) has a negative effect on the dependent variable, but the lagged value has a positive effect. Net foreign assets, on the other hand, do not have a significant effect.

Keywords

Export, Fixed Capital, Growth, Debts

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