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TÜRKİYE’DE PETROL FİYATLARI, PETROL TÜKETİMİ VE ÇEVRESEL BOZULMA ARASINDAKİ ASİMETRİK NEDENSEL İLİŞKİLER

Year 2022, , 241 - 253, 29.06.2022
https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.1058585

Abstract

Küresel ekonomi, birincil enerji kaynağı olarak yoğun kullanımı nedeniyle büyük ölçüde petrole bağımlıdır. Bu nedenle petrol fiyatlarında meydana gelen değişimler ülkeleri ekonomik ve çevresel pek çok kanaldan etkileyebilmektedir. Bu motivasyondan hareketle bu çalışmada, 1987-2020 döneminde Türkiye’de petrol fiyatları, petrol tüketimi ve çevresel bozulma arasındaki ilişkiler pozitif ve negatif şokları dikkate alan Hatemi-J (2012) asimetrik nedensellik analizi ile araştırılmaktadır. Ampirik bulgular; incelenen dönemde Türkiye’de petrol fiyatları, petrol tüketimi ve çevresel bozulma arasında pozitif ve negatif şoklara göre farklılaşan nedensel bağlantılar olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna göre; petrol tüketimindeki negatif ve petrol fiyatlarındaki pozitif şoklar çevresel bozulmadaki pozitif şokların, çevresel bozulmadaki negatif şoklar petrol tüketimindeki pozitif şokların ve petrol fiyatlarındaki negatif şoklar ise çevresel bozulmadaki negatif şokların nedenidir. Petrol fiyatları ile petrol tüketimi arasında herhangi bir nedensel ilişki bulunmamasına karşın çevresel bozulma hem petrol fiyatları hem de petrol tüketimi ile ilişkilidir. Bu bulgular; Türkiye’de çevresel iyileşme politikaları içerisinde petrolün önemli bir bileşen olarak ele alınması gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

References

  • Abumunshar, M., Aga, M. ve Samour, A. (2020). ‘’Oil Price, Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions in Turkey. New Evidence from a Bootstrap ARDL Test’’, Energies, 13/21, 5588.
  • Agbanike, T. F., Nwani, C., Uwazie, U. I., Anochiwa, L. I., Onoja, T. G. C. ve Ogbonnaya, I. O. (2019). ‘’Oil Price, Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions: Insight into Sustainability Challenges in Venezuela’’, Latin American Economic Review, 28/8, 1-26.
  • Alkın, H., Işık, S. ve Çağlar, A. E. (2019). ‘’Türkiye’de Taylor Kuralının Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi’’, Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 35, 211-225.
  • Aydın, L. ve Acar, M. (2011). ‘’Economic Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Turkish Economy in the Coming Decades: A Dynamic CGE Analysis’’, Energy Policy, 39/3, 1722-1731.
  • Balaguer, J. ve Cantavella, M. (2016). ‘’Estimating the Environmental Kuznets Curve for Spain by Considering Fuel Oil Prices (1872011)’’, Ecological Indicators, 60, 853-859.
  • Blanchard, O. J. ve Gali, J. (2007). ‘’The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?’’, NBER Working Paper, 13368.
  • Blazquez, J., Martin-Moreno, J. M., Perez, R. ve Ruiz, J. (2017). ‘’Fossil Fuel Price Shocks and CO2 Emissions: The Case of Spain’’, The Energy Journal, 38/6, 161-176.
  • Boufateh, T. (2019). ‘’The Environmental Kuznets Curve by Considering Asymmetric Oil Price Shocks: Evidence from the Top Two’’, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26/1, 706-720.
  • Boufateh, T. (2021). ‘’ The Environmental Issue Facing Asymmetric Oil Price Shocks and Renewable Energy Challenges: Evidence from Tunisia’’, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 1-15.
  • British Petroleum (2022). Statistical Review of World Energy (01.01.2022). https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
  • Cavalcanti, T. ve Jalles, J. T. (2013). ‘’Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks in Brazil and in the United States’’, Applied Energy, 104, 475-486.
  • Chai, J., Zhou, Y., Liang, T., Xing, L. ve Lai, K. K. (2016). ‘’Impact of International Oil Price on Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction in China’’, Sustainability, 8/6, 508.
  • Chaudhry, I. S., Azali, M., Faheem, M. ve Ali, S. (2020). ‘’Asymmetric Dynamics of Oil Price and Environmental Degradation: Evidence from Pakistan’’, Review of Economics and Development Studies, 6/1, 1-12.
  • Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanlığı (ETKB) (1987-2020). Enerji İşleri Genel Müdürlüğü, Enerji Denge Tabloları. (01.01.2022). https://enerji.gov.tr/eigm-raporlari
  • Haque, M. I. (2020). ‘’Oil Price Shocks and Energy Consumption in GCC Countries: A System-GMM Approach’’, Environment, Development and Sustainability, 23, 9336-9351.
  • Hatemi-j, A. (2012). ‘’Asymmetric Causality Tests with an Application’’, Empirical Economics, 43/1, 447-456.
  • International Energy Agency (IEA) (2004). Analysis of the Impact of High Oil Prices on the Global Economy, (01.01.2022) https://www.iea.org/papers/2004/high_oil_prices.pdf
  • Jiménez-Rodríguez, R. ve Sánchez, M. (2005). ‘’Oil Price Shocks and Real GDP Growth: Empirical Evidence for Some OECD Countries’’, Applied Economics, 37/2, 201-228.
  • Kilian, L. (2014). ‘’Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences’’, Annual Review of Resource Economics, 6/1, 133-154.
  • Kumar, S. (2005). ‘’The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Empirical Evidence for India’’, Available at SSRN 900285.
  • Leng Wong, S., Chia, W.-M. and Chang, Y. (2013). ‘’Energy Consumption and Energy R&D in OECD: Perspectives from Oil Prices and Economic Growth’’, Energy Policy, 62: 1581-1590.
  • Mahmood, H., Alkhateeb, T. T. Y., Al-Qahtani, M. M. Z., Allam, Z., Ahmad, N. ve Furqan, M. (2020). ‘’Urbanization, Oil Price and Pollution in Saudi Arabia’’, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10/2, 477-482.
  • Maji, I. K., Habibullah, M. S. ve Saari, M. Y. (2020). ‘’Does Oil Price Shocks Mitigate Sectoral CO2 Emissions in Malaysia? Evidence from ARDL Estimations’’, Kasetsart Journal of Social Sciences, 41/3, 633-640.
  • Malik, M. Y., Latif, K., Khan, Z., Butt, H. D., Hussain, M. ve Nadeem, M. A. (2020). ‘’Symmetric and Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price, FDI and Economic Growth on Carbon Emission in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL and Non-Linear ARDL Approach’’, Science of The Total Environment, 138421.
  • Mert, M. ve Çağlar, A. E. (2019). Eviews ve Gauss Uygulamalı Zaman Serileri Analizi, 1. Baskı, Detay Yayıncılık, Ankara.
  • Murshed, M. ve Tanha, M. M. (2021). ‘’Oil Price Shocks and Renewable Energy Transition: Empirical Evidence from Net Oil-Importing South Asian Economies‘’, Energy, Ecology and Environment, 6, 183-203.
  • Shaari, M. S., Pei, T. L. ve Rahim, H. A. (2013). ‘’Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Sectors in Malaysia’’, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 3/4, 360.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) (2022). Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi (EVDS). (01.01.2022) https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/serieMarket
  • Ullah, S., Chishti, M.Z. ve Majeed, M.T. (2020). ‘’The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Changes on Environmental Pollution: Evidence from the Top Ten Carbon Emitters’’, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 29623-29635.
  • Zaghdoudi, T. (2018). ‘’Asymmetric Responses of CO2 Emissions to Oil Price Shocks in China: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach’’, Economics Bulletin, 38/3, 1485-1493.
  • Zhang, H., Cai, G. ve Yang, D. (2020). ‘’The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Clean Energy Stocks: Fresh Evidence from Multi-Scale Perspective’’, Energy, 196, 117099.
  • Zhao, Y., Zhang, Y. ve Wei, W. (2020). ‘’Quantifying International Oil Price Shocks on Renewable Energy Development in China’’, Applied Economics, 1-16.

ASSYMETRIC CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN OIL PRICES, OIL CONSUMPTION AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION IN TURKEY

Year 2022, , 241 - 253, 29.06.2022
https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.1058585

Abstract

The global economy is highly dependent on oil due to its densely use as a primary energy source. For this reason, changes in oil prices can affect countries through many economic and environmental channels. Based on this motivation, in this study, the relations between oil prices, oil consumption and environmental degradation are investigated with Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality analysis, which takes into account positive and negative shocks, in Turkey in the 1987-2020 periods. Empirical findings show that there are causal links between oil prices, oil consumption and environmental degradation in Turkey differs according to positive and negative shocks. According to this; negative shocks in oil consumption and positive shocks in oil prices cause positive shocks in environmental degradation, negative shocks in environmental degradation cause positive shocks in oil consumption and negative shocks in oil prices cause negative shocks in environmental degradation. Although there is no causal relationship between oil prices and oil consumption, environmental degradation is associated with both oil prices and oil consumption. These findings reveal that oil should be considered as an important component in environmental improvement policies in Turkey.

References

  • Abumunshar, M., Aga, M. ve Samour, A. (2020). ‘’Oil Price, Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions in Turkey. New Evidence from a Bootstrap ARDL Test’’, Energies, 13/21, 5588.
  • Agbanike, T. F., Nwani, C., Uwazie, U. I., Anochiwa, L. I., Onoja, T. G. C. ve Ogbonnaya, I. O. (2019). ‘’Oil Price, Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions: Insight into Sustainability Challenges in Venezuela’’, Latin American Economic Review, 28/8, 1-26.
  • Alkın, H., Işık, S. ve Çağlar, A. E. (2019). ‘’Türkiye’de Taylor Kuralının Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi’’, Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 35, 211-225.
  • Aydın, L. ve Acar, M. (2011). ‘’Economic Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Turkish Economy in the Coming Decades: A Dynamic CGE Analysis’’, Energy Policy, 39/3, 1722-1731.
  • Balaguer, J. ve Cantavella, M. (2016). ‘’Estimating the Environmental Kuznets Curve for Spain by Considering Fuel Oil Prices (1872011)’’, Ecological Indicators, 60, 853-859.
  • Blanchard, O. J. ve Gali, J. (2007). ‘’The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?’’, NBER Working Paper, 13368.
  • Blazquez, J., Martin-Moreno, J. M., Perez, R. ve Ruiz, J. (2017). ‘’Fossil Fuel Price Shocks and CO2 Emissions: The Case of Spain’’, The Energy Journal, 38/6, 161-176.
  • Boufateh, T. (2019). ‘’The Environmental Kuznets Curve by Considering Asymmetric Oil Price Shocks: Evidence from the Top Two’’, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26/1, 706-720.
  • Boufateh, T. (2021). ‘’ The Environmental Issue Facing Asymmetric Oil Price Shocks and Renewable Energy Challenges: Evidence from Tunisia’’, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 1-15.
  • British Petroleum (2022). Statistical Review of World Energy (01.01.2022). https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
  • Cavalcanti, T. ve Jalles, J. T. (2013). ‘’Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks in Brazil and in the United States’’, Applied Energy, 104, 475-486.
  • Chai, J., Zhou, Y., Liang, T., Xing, L. ve Lai, K. K. (2016). ‘’Impact of International Oil Price on Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction in China’’, Sustainability, 8/6, 508.
  • Chaudhry, I. S., Azali, M., Faheem, M. ve Ali, S. (2020). ‘’Asymmetric Dynamics of Oil Price and Environmental Degradation: Evidence from Pakistan’’, Review of Economics and Development Studies, 6/1, 1-12.
  • Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanlığı (ETKB) (1987-2020). Enerji İşleri Genel Müdürlüğü, Enerji Denge Tabloları. (01.01.2022). https://enerji.gov.tr/eigm-raporlari
  • Haque, M. I. (2020). ‘’Oil Price Shocks and Energy Consumption in GCC Countries: A System-GMM Approach’’, Environment, Development and Sustainability, 23, 9336-9351.
  • Hatemi-j, A. (2012). ‘’Asymmetric Causality Tests with an Application’’, Empirical Economics, 43/1, 447-456.
  • International Energy Agency (IEA) (2004). Analysis of the Impact of High Oil Prices on the Global Economy, (01.01.2022) https://www.iea.org/papers/2004/high_oil_prices.pdf
  • Jiménez-Rodríguez, R. ve Sánchez, M. (2005). ‘’Oil Price Shocks and Real GDP Growth: Empirical Evidence for Some OECD Countries’’, Applied Economics, 37/2, 201-228.
  • Kilian, L. (2014). ‘’Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences’’, Annual Review of Resource Economics, 6/1, 133-154.
  • Kumar, S. (2005). ‘’The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Empirical Evidence for India’’, Available at SSRN 900285.
  • Leng Wong, S., Chia, W.-M. and Chang, Y. (2013). ‘’Energy Consumption and Energy R&D in OECD: Perspectives from Oil Prices and Economic Growth’’, Energy Policy, 62: 1581-1590.
  • Mahmood, H., Alkhateeb, T. T. Y., Al-Qahtani, M. M. Z., Allam, Z., Ahmad, N. ve Furqan, M. (2020). ‘’Urbanization, Oil Price and Pollution in Saudi Arabia’’, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10/2, 477-482.
  • Maji, I. K., Habibullah, M. S. ve Saari, M. Y. (2020). ‘’Does Oil Price Shocks Mitigate Sectoral CO2 Emissions in Malaysia? Evidence from ARDL Estimations’’, Kasetsart Journal of Social Sciences, 41/3, 633-640.
  • Malik, M. Y., Latif, K., Khan, Z., Butt, H. D., Hussain, M. ve Nadeem, M. A. (2020). ‘’Symmetric and Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price, FDI and Economic Growth on Carbon Emission in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL and Non-Linear ARDL Approach’’, Science of The Total Environment, 138421.
  • Mert, M. ve Çağlar, A. E. (2019). Eviews ve Gauss Uygulamalı Zaman Serileri Analizi, 1. Baskı, Detay Yayıncılık, Ankara.
  • Murshed, M. ve Tanha, M. M. (2021). ‘’Oil Price Shocks and Renewable Energy Transition: Empirical Evidence from Net Oil-Importing South Asian Economies‘’, Energy, Ecology and Environment, 6, 183-203.
  • Shaari, M. S., Pei, T. L. ve Rahim, H. A. (2013). ‘’Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Sectors in Malaysia’’, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 3/4, 360.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) (2022). Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi (EVDS). (01.01.2022) https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/serieMarket
  • Ullah, S., Chishti, M.Z. ve Majeed, M.T. (2020). ‘’The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Changes on Environmental Pollution: Evidence from the Top Ten Carbon Emitters’’, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 29623-29635.
  • Zaghdoudi, T. (2018). ‘’Asymmetric Responses of CO2 Emissions to Oil Price Shocks in China: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach’’, Economics Bulletin, 38/3, 1485-1493.
  • Zhang, H., Cai, G. ve Yang, D. (2020). ‘’The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Clean Energy Stocks: Fresh Evidence from Multi-Scale Perspective’’, Energy, 196, 117099.
  • Zhao, Y., Zhang, Y. ve Wei, W. (2020). ‘’Quantifying International Oil Price Shocks on Renewable Energy Development in China’’, Applied Economics, 1-16.
There are 32 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Kumru Türköz 0000-0002-0640-4212

Publication Date June 29, 2022
Acceptance Date March 13, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022

Cite

APA Türköz, K. (2022). TÜRKİYE’DE PETROL FİYATLARI, PETROL TÜKETİMİ VE ÇEVRESEL BOZULMA ARASINDAKİ ASİMETRİK NEDENSEL İLİŞKİLER. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi(51), 241-253. https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.1058585
AMA Türköz K. TÜRKİYE’DE PETROL FİYATLARI, PETROL TÜKETİMİ VE ÇEVRESEL BOZULMA ARASINDAKİ ASİMETRİK NEDENSEL İLİŞKİLER. PAUSBED. June 2022;(51):241-253. doi:10.30794/pausbed.1058585
Chicago Türköz, Kumru. “TÜRKİYE’DE PETROL FİYATLARI, PETROL TÜKETİMİ VE ÇEVRESEL BOZULMA ARASINDAKİ ASİMETRİK NEDENSEL İLİŞKİLER”. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, no. 51 (June 2022): 241-53. https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.1058585.
EndNote Türköz K (June 1, 2022) TÜRKİYE’DE PETROL FİYATLARI, PETROL TÜKETİMİ VE ÇEVRESEL BOZULMA ARASINDAKİ ASİMETRİK NEDENSEL İLİŞKİLER. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 51 241–253.
IEEE K. Türköz, “TÜRKİYE’DE PETROL FİYATLARI, PETROL TÜKETİMİ VE ÇEVRESEL BOZULMA ARASINDAKİ ASİMETRİK NEDENSEL İLİŞKİLER”, PAUSBED, no. 51, pp. 241–253, June 2022, doi: 10.30794/pausbed.1058585.
ISNAD Türköz, Kumru. “TÜRKİYE’DE PETROL FİYATLARI, PETROL TÜKETİMİ VE ÇEVRESEL BOZULMA ARASINDAKİ ASİMETRİK NEDENSEL İLİŞKİLER”. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 51 (June 2022), 241-253. https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.1058585.
JAMA Türköz K. TÜRKİYE’DE PETROL FİYATLARI, PETROL TÜKETİMİ VE ÇEVRESEL BOZULMA ARASINDAKİ ASİMETRİK NEDENSEL İLİŞKİLER. PAUSBED. 2022;:241–253.
MLA Türköz, Kumru. “TÜRKİYE’DE PETROL FİYATLARI, PETROL TÜKETİMİ VE ÇEVRESEL BOZULMA ARASINDAKİ ASİMETRİK NEDENSEL İLİŞKİLER”. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, no. 51, 2022, pp. 241-53, doi:10.30794/pausbed.1058585.
Vancouver Türköz K. TÜRKİYE’DE PETROL FİYATLARI, PETROL TÜKETİMİ VE ÇEVRESEL BOZULMA ARASINDAKİ ASİMETRİK NEDENSEL İLİŞKİLER. PAUSBED. 2022(51):241-53.

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