TÜRKİYE’DE PETROL FİYATLARI, PETROL TÜKETİMİ VE ÇEVRESEL BOZULMA ARASINDAKİ ASİMETRİK NEDENSEL İLİŞKİLER

Öz

Küresel ekonomi, birincil enerji kaynağı olarak yoğun kullanımı nedeniyle büyük ölçüde petrole bağımlıdır. Bu nedenle petrol fiyatlarında meydana gelen değişimler ülkeleri ekonomik ve çevresel pek çok kanaldan etkileyebilmektedir. Bu motivasyondan hareketle bu çalışmada, 1987-2020 döneminde Türkiye’de petrol fiyatları, petrol tüketimi ve çevresel bozulma arasındaki ilişkiler pozitif ve negatif şokları dikkate alan Hatemi-J (2012) asimetrik nedensellik analizi ile araştırılmaktadır. Ampirik bulgular; incelenen dönemde Türkiye’de petrol fiyatları, petrol tüketimi ve çevresel bozulma arasında pozitif ve negatif şoklara göre farklılaşan nedensel bağlantılar olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna göre; petrol tüketimindeki negatif ve petrol fiyatlarındaki pozitif şoklar çevresel bozulmadaki pozitif şokların, çevresel bozulmadaki negatif şoklar petrol tüketimindeki pozitif şokların ve petrol fiyatlarındaki negatif şoklar ise çevresel bozulmadaki negatif şokların nedenidir. Petrol fiyatları ile petrol tüketimi arasında herhangi bir nedensel ilişki bulunmamasına karşın çevresel bozulma hem petrol fiyatları hem de petrol tüketimi ile ilişkilidir. Bu bulgular; Türkiye’de çevresel iyileşme politikaları içerisinde petrolün önemli bir bileşen olarak ele alınması gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Petrol Fiyatları
• Petrol Tüketimi
• Çevresel Bozulma
• Hatemi-J Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi

ASSYMETRIC CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN OIL PRICES, OIL CONSUMPTION AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION IN TURKEY

Öz

The global economy is highly dependent on oil due to its densely use as a primary energy source. For this reason, changes in oil prices can affect countries through many economic and environmental channels. Based on this motivation, in this study, the relations between oil prices, oil consumption and environmental degradation are investigated with Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality analysis, which takes into account positive and negative shocks, in Turkey in the 1987-2020 periods. Empirical findings show that there are causal links between oil prices, oil consumption and environmental degradation in Turkey differs according to positive and negative shocks. According to this; negative shocks in oil consumption and positive shocks in oil prices cause positive shocks in environmental degradation, negative shocks in environmental degradation cause positive shocks in oil consumption and negative shocks in oil prices cause negative shocks in environmental degradation. Although there is no causal relationship between oil prices and oil consumption, environmental degradation is associated with both oil prices and oil consumption. These findings reveal that oil should be considered as an important component in environmental improvement policies in Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Oil Prices
• Oil Consumption
• Environmental Degradation
• Hatemi-J Asymmetric Causality Test.

Kaynakça

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