SAVUNMA HARCAMALARI, İŞSİZLİK VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİLERİNİN ANALİZİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2023, , 39 - 55, 02.01.2023

Aslı Özen Atabey , Mustafa Karakuş

https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.1130118

Abstract

Savunma harcamaları ülke güvenliği için zorunlu olarak nitelendirilmekle birlikte ekonomik büyüme, istihdam gibi toplum refahını belirleyen değişkenleri de etkileyebilmektedir. Bu bağlamda savunma harcamalarının, söz konusu değişkenler üzerindeki olası etkilerinin ortaya konması, alan yazınındaki ihtiyaçtan ve toplum refahı açısından oldukça önem arz etmektedir. Nitekim bu çalışmanın amacı savunma harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme ve işsizlik arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini Türkiye ekonomisine yönelik olarak ekonometrik yöntemlerle incelemektir.
1988-2020 yılları arasındaki süreçte Türkiye’deki savunma harcamaları, işsizlik ve ekonomik büyüme değişkenlerine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak yapılan çalışmada, Toda - Yamamoto (1995) Nedensellik Testi uygulanmıştır. Yapılan ekonometrik uygulama neticesinde, savunma harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme arasında çift taraflı bir neden-sonuç ilişkisi bulunduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca işsizlikten savunma harcamalarına doğru olmasa da savunma harcamalarından işsizliğe doğru olmak üzere sadece tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Çalışma kapsamında yapılan ekonometrik analizde ekonomik büyüme ile işsizlik arasındaki ilişki de araştırılmış ve ekonomik büyümeden işsizliğe, işsizlikten de ekonomik büyümeye doğru nedensellik ilişkisi olmadığına dair bulgulara ulaşılmıştır.

Keywords

Savunma harcamaları, İşsizlik, Ekonomik Büyüme, Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi

THE RELATIONSHIP OF DEFENSE EXPENDITURES, UNEMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EMPIRICAL FORECAST ON TURKEY

Abstract

While defense expenditures are considered obligatory for national security, they can also affect variables that determine social welfare such as economic growth and employment. In this context, revealing the possible effects of defense expenditures on the said variables is very important in terms of the need in the literature and the welfare of the society. As a matter of fact, the aim of this study is to examine the causality relationship between defense expenditures, economic growth and unemployment with econometric methods for the Turkish economy.
In this econometric study, which was conducted using annual data on defense expenditures, unemployment and economic growth variables between the years 1988-2020 in Turkey, the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) Causality Test was applied. As a result of the econometric application, it has been concluded that there is a bilateral cause-effect relationship between defense expenditures and economic growth. In addition, only a one-way causality relationship has been detected, from unemployment to defense expenditures, but not from defense expenditures to unemployment. In the econometric analysis carried out within the scope of the study, the relationship between economic growth and unemployment was also investigated and it was found that there is no causality relationship from economic growth to unemployment and from unemployment to economic growth

Keywords

Defense spending, Unemployment, Economic Growth, Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test

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