SAVUNMA HARCAMALARI, İŞSİZLİK VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİLERİNİN ANALİZİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Savunma harcamaları ülke güvenliği için zorunlu olarak nitelendirilmekle birlikte ekonomik büyüme, istihdam gibi toplum refahını belirleyen değişkenleri de etkileyebilmektedir. Bu bağlamda savunma harcamalarının, söz konusu değişkenler üzerindeki olası etkilerinin ortaya konması, alan yazınındaki ihtiyaçtan ve toplum refahı açısından oldukça önem arz etmektedir. Nitekim bu çalışmanın amacı savunma harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme ve işsizlik arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini Türkiye ekonomisine yönelik olarak ekonometrik yöntemlerle incelemektir. 1988-2020 yılları arasındaki süreçte Türkiye’deki savunma harcamaları, işsizlik ve ekonomik büyüme değişkenlerine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak yapılan çalışmada, Toda - Yamamoto (1995) Nedensellik Testi uygulanmıştır. Yapılan ekonometrik uygulama neticesinde, savunma harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme arasında çift taraflı bir neden-sonuç ilişkisi bulunduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca işsizlikten savunma harcamalarına doğru olmasa da savunma harcamalarından işsizliğe doğru olmak üzere sadece tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Çalışma kapsamında yapılan ekonometrik analizde ekonomik büyüme ile işsizlik arasındaki ilişki de araştırılmış ve ekonomik büyümeden işsizliğe, işsizlikten de ekonomik büyümeye doğru nedensellik ilişkisi olmadığına dair bulgulara ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Savunma harcamaları
• İşsizlik
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi

THE RELATIONSHIP OF DEFENSE EXPENDITURES, UNEMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EMPIRICAL FORECAST ON TURKEY

Öz

While defense expenditures are considered obligatory for national security, they can also affect variables that determine social welfare such as economic growth and employment. In this context, revealing the possible effects of defense expenditures on the said variables is very important in terms of the need in the literature and the welfare of the society. As a matter of fact, the aim of this study is to examine the causality relationship between defense expenditures, economic growth and unemployment with econometric methods for the Turkish economy. In this econometric study, which was conducted using annual data on defense expenditures, unemployment and economic growth variables between the years 1988-2020 in Turkey, the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) Causality Test was applied. As a result of the econometric application, it has been concluded that there is a bilateral cause-effect relationship between defense expenditures and economic growth. In addition, only a one-way causality relationship has been detected, from unemployment to defense expenditures, but not from defense expenditures to unemployment. In the econometric analysis carried out within the scope of the study, the relationship between economic growth and unemployment was also investigated and it was found that there is no causality relationship from economic growth to unemployment and from unemployment to economic growth

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Defense spending
• Unemployment
• Economic Growth
• Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test

Kaynakça

1. Altay, C. ve Sugözü, İ.H. (2019). “İstihdam ve savunma harcamalarının GSYH üzerindeki etkisi:1991-2016 Türkiye örneği”, International Journal of Academic Value Studies, 5(2), 258-270. http://dx.doi.org/10.23929/javs.866
2. Anwar, M.A., Rafıque, Z. ve Joıya, S.A. (2012). “Defense spendıng-economıc growth nexus: A case study of Pakıstan”, Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 50(2), 163-182. Erişim adresi https://www.jstor.org/stable/43855779
3. Aydemir, A. F., Özdemir, D. ve Emsen, Ö.S. (2016). “The relationships between military expenditures and unemployment in G-20 states”, İçinde International Conference of Eurasian Economies, Kaposvár, Hungary. https://doi.org/10.36880/C07.01634
4. Canbay, Ş. ve Mercan D. (2020). “Unemployment effects of military spending in Turkey”, Journal of Yasar University, 15(60), 941-952. Erişim adresi https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/1009216
5. Ceyhan, T. ve Köstekçi, A. (2021). “The effect of military expenditures on economic growth and unemployment: Evidence from Turkey”, Fırat Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. 31(2), 913-928. Erişim adresi https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/1645953
6. Chletsos M. and Stelios R. (2017). “ Defense spending and unemployment. evidence from southern european countries”, Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, De Gruyter, 23(1), 1-36. https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2016-0026
7. Çevik, E. İ. ve Bektaş, G. (2019).” Savunma harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği”, Balkan Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(16), 229-236. Erişim adresi https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/775247
8. Dıckey, D. A. ve Fuller, W. A. (1981). “Likelihood Ratio Statistics For Autoregressive Time Series With A Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49(4): 1057-1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517

9. Dunne, P. ve Nıkolaıdou, E. (2001). “Military spending and economic growth in the economic of european: A causal analysis for Greece Spain and Portugal”. (02.03.2022). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228553733
10. Durgun, Ö. ve Timur, M. C. (2017). “Savunma harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye analizi”. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi. Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, (54), 126-137. Erişim tarihi: 01 Mart 2022, https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/dpusbe/issue/32935/32350
11. Fatah, A. A. ve Salıhoglu, S. (2016). “Comparative study of the ımpact of defense expenditures on economic growth in Indonesia and Turkey”, Savunma Bilimleri Dergisi, 15(1), 55-77.
12. Gerace, M. P. (2002). “US military expenditure and economic growth: Some evidence from spectral methods” Defense and Peace Economics, 13 (1), 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690210966
13. Gökmenoğlu, K., Taşpınar, N. ve Sadeghıeh, M. (2015). “Military expenditure and economic growth: The case of Turkey”, Procedia Economics and Finance (25), 455-462. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00757-1
14. İpek, E. (2014). “Savunma harcamalarının seçilmiş makroekonomik değişkenler üzerine etkisi: ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 14(3), 113-126. Erişim tarihi: 03 Mart 2022, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/265020367
15. Khalid, M. A. ve Alhaji, B. M. (2014).”Military expenditure and economic growth in the case of China: Using ARDL approach”, International Journal of Development and Emerging Economics, 2(1), 27-36.
16. Kollias, C. (1997). “Defence spending and growth in Turkey 1954-1993: A causal analysis”, Defence and Peace Economics, 8(2), 189-204. https://doi.org/10.1080/10430719708404875
17. Korkmaz, S. (2015). “The effect of military spending on economic growth and unemployment in mediterranean countries”, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5 (1), 273-280. Erişim tarihi: 03 Mart 2022, https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/362992
18. Lee, J. ve Strazicich, M.C. (2003). “Minimum lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 85 (4), 1082-1089.
19. Lobont, O.R., Glont O.R., Badea, L. ve Vatavu, S. (2019). “Correlation of military expenditures and economic growth: Lessons for Romania”, Quality & Quantity, 53, 2957–2968. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-019-00910-9
20. Looney, R. E. (1994). The economics of third world defense expenditures, Jaı Press, London.
21. Looney, R.E. (1995). The economics of third world defense expenditures, Contemporary Studies in Economic and Financial Analysis, (72) Jaı Press, London.
22. Morales ve Ramos, E. (2002). “Defence R&D expenditure: The crowding-out hypothesis”, Defence and Peace Economics, 13 (5), 365-383. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690213507
23. Özsahin, S. ve Ucler, G. (2021).” The relationship between defense expenditures and employment in nato member states: Bootstrap panel causality test”, İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 71(1), 231-249. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2020-0022
24. Paul, S. (1996). “Defence spending and unemployment rates: An empirical analysis for the OECD”, Journal of Economic Studies, 23(2), 44-54, https://doi.org/10.1108/01443589610109667
25. Phillips, P.C.B. ve Perron, P. (1988). “Testing for a unit root in time series regression”, Biometrica, 75(2), 335-346. https://doi.org/10.2307/2336182
26. Rahman, T. ve Siddiqui, D. A. (2019). “The effect of military spending on economic growth in the presence of arms trade: a global analysis”, Social Science Research Network. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3401331
27. Raju, M.H. ve Zobayer A. (2019). “Effect of military expenditure on economic growth: evidences from India Pakistan and China using cointegration and causality analysis”, Asian Journal of German and European Studies 4 (3), 2-8. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40856-019-0040-6
28. Sanso-Navarro, M.S., ve Cabello, M.V. (2015). “The causal relationship between military spending and unemployment in the EU 15”, Social Science Research Network. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2550136
29. Selvanathan, S. ve Selvanathan, E.A. (2014). “Defence expenditure and economic growth: A case study of Sri Lanka using causality analysis”, International Journal of Development and Conflict, 4, 69-76. http://www.ijdc.org.in/uploads/1/7/5/7/17570463/de1.pdf
30. SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) (2021). SIPRI Military Expenditure Database. Erişim tarihi: 04 Şubat 2022, https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex.
31. Tang, J.-H., Lai, C.-C. ve Lin, E. S. (2009). “Military Expenditure and Unemployment Rates: Granger Causality Tests Using Global Panel Data”, Defence and Peace Economics, 20 (4), 253-267.
32. Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). S”tatistical İnference İn Vector Autoregressions With Possibly İntegrated Processes”, Journal Of Econometrics, 66(1-2) 225-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8
33. Topal, M.H. (2018). “Türkiye’de askeri harcama ve işsizlik ilişkisi: Çoklu yapısal kırılmalar altında eşbütünleşme analizi ve zamanla değişen nedensellik”, 4. International Congress on Political, Economic and Social Studies (Ed: F. Yardımcıoğlu, F. Beşel, H. Bağcı ve F. Pekşen), (139-158. ss.), 2(4), Venice, Italy.
34. Tuncay, Ö. (2017). “Finansal serbestleşme sonrası dönem savunma harcamalarının ekonomik analizi”, Uluslararası Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 3(1), 23-37.
35. Turan, T., Karakaş, M. ve Özer, H. A. (2018). “Askeri harcamalar ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Panel eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik analizi”, Maliye Dergisi, 175, 140-153. Erişim adresi https://www.acarindex.com/pdfs/105906
36. WORLD BANK, (2021). World Bank Data. (15.01.2022), https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG&country=# (15.01.2022)
37. WORLD BANK, (2021). World Bank Data. (15.01.2022) https://databank.worldbank.org/ reports.aspx?source=2&series=SL.UEM.1524.NE.ZS&country=#