Sera Gazı Emisyonları, Enerji Kullanımı ve Ülke Riski: Türkiye’nin CDS Primlerinden ARDL–ECM Bulguları (2005–2023)

Abstract

Bu çalışma, çevresel faktörlerin Türkiye’nin CDS primleri üzerindeki etkisini 2005–2023 dönemi için incelemektedir. Kişi başına sera gazı emisyonları, kişi başına enerji kullanımı ve beş yıllık CDS primlerine ilişkin yıllık veriler kullanılarak, hem kısa hem de uzun dönem dinamiklerini yakalamak amacıyla Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (ARDL) sınır testi yaklaşımı ve buna bağlı Hata Düzeltme Modeli (ECM) uygulanmıştır. Birim kök testleri değişkenlerin farklı bütünleşme derecelerine sahip olduğunu göstermiş, bu da ARDL çerçevesini uygun kılmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlar, artan sera gazı emisyonlarının hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde CDS primlerini anlamlı şekilde yükselttiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Kişi başına enerji kullanımı ise daha karmaşık bir rol üstlenmektedir: eşanlı artışlar daha güçlü ekonomik kapasiteyi yansıtarak CDS primlerini düşürürken, gecikmeli etkilerde kısmi bir tersine dönüş gözlemlenmektedir. ECM sonuçları, uzun dönem dengesine hızlı bir uyum olduğunu teyit etmektedir; sapmaların yarısından fazlası bir yıl içinde düzelmektedir. Genel olarak bulgular, Türkiye’nin çevresel performansının egemen borçlanma maliyetlerinin bir belirleyicisi olduğunu vurgulamaktadır. Politika açısından bakıldığında, sera gazı emisyonlarının azaltılması ve daha temiz enerji kaynaklarına geçiş, yalnızca çevresel açıdan değil, aynı zamanda uluslararası kredi piyasalarında egemen risk primlerini azaltarak finansal açıdan da rasyonel bir tercih olacaktır.

Keywords

• CDS primi
• ülke riski
• sera gazı emsiyonları
• Türkiye

Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Energy Use, and Sovereign Risk: ARDL–ECM Evidence from Turkey’s CDS Spreads (2005–2023)

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of environmental factors on Turkey’s sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads over the period 2005–2023. Using annual data on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per capita, energy use per capita, and five-year CDS spreads, we apply the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and its associated Error Correction Model (ECM) to capture both short-run and long-run dynamics. Unit root tests reveal mixed integration orders, justifying the ARDL framework. The empirical results show that higher GHG emissions significantly increase CDS spreads in both the short and long run. Energy use per capita exhibits a more nuanced role: while contemporaneous increases reduce CDS spreads by signaling stronger economic capacity, lagged effects reveal partial reversal. The ECM results confirm a rapid adjustment toward long-run equilibrium, with over half of deviations corrected within one year. Overall, the findings underscore that Türkiye’s environmental performance is a determinant of its sovereign borrowing costs. From a policy perspective, reducing emissions and transitioning to cleaner energy sources are not only environmentally essential but also financially prudent, as they can mitigate sovereign risk premiums in international credit markets.

Keywords

• CDS premiums
• sovereign risk
• greenhouse gas emissions
• Türkiye

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