Türkiye Ekonomisinde Dışa Bağımlılık ve Büyüme İlişkisi: Reel Efektif Döviz Kurunun Koşullu Etkisi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye ekonomisinde dışa bağımlılık ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi ticaret bağımlılığı (TRD), yabancı yatırım stoku bağımlılığı (NVST), dış borç bağımlılığı (DBT) ve reel efektif döviz kuru (lnREER) değişkenleri üzerinden incelemektedir. 1990–2023 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılmış ve dış entegrasyonun gelir boyutunu daha iyi yansıtmak amacıyla ekonomik performans göstergesi olarak gayrisafi milli gelirin logaritması (lnGNI) tercih edilmiştir. Analizde yapısal değişimleri ve küçük örneklem yanlılığını dikkate almak için Fourier Bootstrap ARDL yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Temel model sonuçlarına göre ticaret bağımlılığı geliri azaltıcı, yatırım bağımlılığı artırıcı, dış borç ise büyümeyi baskılayıcı etki yaratırken reel efektif döviz kuru destekleyici bir rol oynamaktadır. Ticaret bağımlılığı ile döviz kuru etkileşimi modele eklendiğinde, ticaretin büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin kur dinamiklerine bağlı olarak değiştiği görülmektedir. Sonuçlar, dışa bağımlılık kanallarının bağımsız işlemediğini ve makro fiyat koşullarının bu ilişkileri dönüştürdüğünü göstermektedir. Bulgular, Türkiye için kur uyumlu ticaret politikalarının, sürdürülebilir borç yönetiminin ve üretken yabancı yatırım stratejilerinin önemini ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Dışa Bağımlılık
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru
• Türkiye

The Relatıonship Between External Dependency and Growth in The Turkish Economy: The Conditional Effect of the Real Effective Exchange Rate

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between external dependency and economic growth in Türkiye by focusing on trade dependency (TRD), foreign investment stock dependency (NVST), external debt dependency (DBT), and the real effective exchange rate (lnREER). Using annual data for the 1990–2023 period, economic performance is proxied by the logarithm of gross national income (lnGNI) to capture the income dimension of external integration. The analysis employs the Fourier Bootstrap ARDL approach to account for structural changes and small-sample bias. Empirical findings indicate a long-run cointegration relationship among the variables. In the baseline model, trade dependency has a negative effect on income, investment dependency has a positive impact, and external debt reduces growth, while the real effective exchange rate exerts a supportive effect. When the interaction between trade dependency and the exchange rate is introduced, the growth effect of trade becomes conditional on exchange rate dynamics. These results show that external dependency channels do not operate independently and that macroeconomic price conditions reshape their influence on growth. The findings highlight the importance of exchange-rate-consistent trade policies, sustainable debt management, and productive foreign investment strategies for Türkiye’s long-term income performance.

Keywords

• Foreign Dependency
• Economic Growth
• Real Effective Exchange Rate
• Türkiye

References

1. Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J. A. (2005). Institutions as a fundamental cause of long-run growth. In P. Aghion & S. N. Durlauf (Eds.), Handbook of economic growth (Vol. 1, Part A, pp. 385–472). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0684(05)01006-3
2. Agosin, M. R., & Machado, R. (2005). Foreign Investment in Developing Countries: Does it Crowd in Domestic Investment? Oxford Development Studies, 33(2), 149–162. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600810500137749
3. Aiken, L. S., & West, S. G. (1991). Multiple Regression: Testing and Interpreting Interactions. Sage Publications.
4. Alam, I., & Quazi, R. (2003). Determinants of Capital Flight: An econometric case study of Bangladesh. International Review of Applied Economics, 17(1), 85–103. https://doi.org/10.1080/713673164
5. Alfaro, L., Chanda, A., Kalemli-Ozcan, Ş., & Sayek, S. (2004). FDI and economic growth: The role of local financial markets. Journal of International Economics, 64(1), 89–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(03)00081-3
6. Anetor, F. O., Esho, E., & Verhoef, G. (2020). The impact of foreign direct investment, foreign aid and trade on poverty reduction: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries. Cogent Economics, Finance, 8(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2020.1737347
7. Ari, Y. O. (2021). Causality relationship between government stability and trade openness: The case of Turkey. İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 6(16), 422-431. https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.840909
8. Avramovic, D., Husain, S. S., De Weille, J., Froland, J., Hayes, J. P., & Wyss, H. (1964). Economic growth and external debt. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank). http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/883691468780874544

9. Ayele, G. M. (2022). Real exchange rate misalignment and economic growth in East African least developed countries. Heliyon, 8(11), e11840. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e11840
10. Balassa, B. (1964). The purchasing-power parity doctrine: A reappraisal. Journal of Political Economy, 72(6), 584–596. https://doi.org/10.1086/258965
11. Ballı, P. E., & Aydın, A. (2022). Türkiye’de doğrudan yabancı yatırımların ekonomik büyüme ve istihdama etkisi. Uygulamalı Ekonomi ve Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4(2), 39-60. https://doi.org/10.46959/jeess.1094665
12. Balogun, M. A., Tella, S. A., Adelowokan, O. A., Ogede, J. S., ve Adegboyega, S. B. (2024). Achieving sustainable development in ECOWAS countries: The impact of trade openness, poverty and human capital. Future Business Journal, 10(1), 78. https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-024-00367-9
13. Banerjee, P., Arčabić, V., & Lee, H. (2017). Fourier ADL cointegration test to approximate smooth breaks with new evidence from crude oil market. Economic Modelling, 67, 114–124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.11.004
14. Benghoul, M., & Aydın, H. İ. (2019). Foreıgn dırect ınvestment and economıc growth in Turkey. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 24(4), 1181-1194. https://izlik.org/JA69YR43TF
15. Beşoluk, E., & Keskin, A. (2023). Türkiye’de doğrudan yabancı yatırımların belirleyicileri: Hacker ve Hatemi-J nedensellik analizi. JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 8(1), 266-284. https://izlik.org/JA27GG99CL
16. Bhagwati, J. (1958). Immiserizing growth: A geometrical note. The Review of Economic Studies, 25(3), 201–205. https://doi.org/10.2307/2295990
17. Biçer, B. (2020). Dış borç - ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: 1970-2017 dönemi Türkiye örneği. Osmaniye Korkut Ata Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 4(1), 23-45. https://izlik.org/JA26XK73GA
18. Bitecek, N., & Kızılkaya, O. (2022). Türkiye’de cari işlemler açığının belirleyicileri: 1980-2019 dönem ampirik analizi. Reforma, 4(92), 26-36. https://izlik.org/JA49MG35FB
19. Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J., & Lee, J.-W. (1998). How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth? Journal of International Economics, 45(1), 115–135. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(97)00033-0
20. Bornschier, V., & Chase-Dunn, C. (1985). Transnational corporations and underdevelopment. Bloomsbury Academic.
21. Bozoklu, S., Yilanci, V., & Gorus, M. S. (2020). Persistence in per capita energy consumption: a fractional integration approach with a Fourier function. Energy economics, 91, 104926. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104926
22. Bulut, A. (2025). Determinants of Economic Growth in Türkiye: A Dynamic ARDL Simulation Analysis of External Debt, Government Size, and Energy Use. Journal of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Economics and Administrative Sciences Faculty, 12(3), 1169-1196. https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.1699228
23. Céspedes, L. F., Chang, R., & Velasco, A. (2004). Balance sheets and exchange rate policy. American Economic Review, 94(4), 1183–1193. https://doi.org/10.1257/0002828042002589
24. Ceyhan, T. (2025). The Impact of Foreign Direct Investments on Unemployment in Turkey: ARDL Bound Test Analysis. Gümüşhane University Journal of Social Sciences, 16(1), 38-52. https://doi.org/10.36362/gumus.1461291
25. Chen, Q. (2016). Application of Stata in econometrics. Higher Education Press.
26. Chenery, H. B., & Strout, A. M. (1966). Foreign assistance and economic development. The American Economic Review, 56(4), 679–733. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1813524
27. Chukwu, A. B., & Adewuyi, A. O. (2024). Foreign direct investment, sectoral output performance and poverty in Africa: Evidence from panel structural vector autoregressive and threshold regression models. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 29(3), 2665–2698. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2799
28. Clements, B., Bhattacharya, R., & Nguyen, T. Q. (2003). External debt, public investment, and growth in low-income countries (IMF Working Paper No. 03/249). International Monetary Fund. https://ssrn.com/abstract=880959
29. Cohen, J., Cohen, P., West, S. G., & Aiken, L. S. (2003). Applied Multiple Regression/Correlation Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences (3. baskı). Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
30. Çeştepe, H., Tay Bayramoğlu, A., & Sümer, E. (2021). Dış Borçlanma, İktisadi Büyüme, Cari Açık ve Finansal Gelişme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 60, 419-445. https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.970296
31. Çevik, E. İ., Atukeren, E., & Korkmaz, T. (2019). Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Rolling Frequency Domain Analysis. Economies, 7(2), 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies7020041
32. Dam, M. M., & Bakkalcı, A. C. (2018). Türkiye’de Ticari Dışa Açıklığın Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım. Gümrük ve Ticaret Dergisi, 13, 30-39. https://izlik.org/JA43ZZ35AC
33. Demır, O. (2022). Testing the long-run growth effects of foreign dırect investment in Türkıye: Evıdence from ARDL & NARDL analysis. Eurasian Research Journal, 4(4), 65-79. https://izlik.org/JA56XK39TG
34. Djokoto, J. G., & Wongnaa, C. A. (2023). Does the level of development distinguish the impacts of foreign direct investment on the stages of human development? Sustainable Futures, 5, 100111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2023.100111
35. Domar, E. D. (1946). Capital expansion, rate of growth, and employment. Econometrica, 14(2), 137–147. https://doi.org/10.2307/1905364
36. Dorn, F., Fuest, C., ve Potrafke, N. (2022). Trade openness and income inequality: New empirical evidence. Economic Inquiry, 60(1), 202-223. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13018,
37. Dos Santos, T. (1970). The structure of dependence. The American Economic Review, 60(2), 231–236. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1815811
38. Eaton, J., & Gersovitz, M. (1981). Debt with potential repudiation: Theoretical and empirical analysis. The Review of Economic Studies, 48(2), 289–309. https://doi.org/10.2307/2296886
39. Echambadi, R., & Hess, J. D. (2007). Mean-centering does not alleviate collinearity problems in moderated multiple regression models. Marketing Science, 26(3), 438–445. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1060.0263
40. Eichengreen, B., & Hausmann, R. (1999). Exchange rates and financial fragility (NBER Working Paper No. 7418). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w7418
41. Elkhalfi, O., Chaabita, R., Benboubker, M., Ghoujdam, M., Zahraoui, K., El Alaoui, H., Laalam, S., Belhaj, I., & Hammouch, H. (2024). The impact of external debt on economic growth: The case of emerging countries. Research in Globalization, 9, 100248. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2024.100248
42. Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012). The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests. Economics Letters, 117(1), 196-199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.081
43. Frankel, J. A., & Romer, D. (1999). Does trade cause growth? American Economic Review, 89(3), 379–399. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.89.3.379
44. Gereffi, G. (1999). International trade and industrial upgrading in the apparel commodity chain. Journal of International Economics, 48(1), 37–70. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(98)00075-0
45. Gövdeli, T. (2019). External Debt and Economic Growth in Turkey: An Empirical Analysis. Sosyoekonomi, 27(40), 119-130. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.02.07
46. Grossman, G. M., & Helpman, E. (1991). Innovation and growth in the global economy. MIT Press.
47. Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1995). Economic growth and the environment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2), 353–377. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118443
48. Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic econometrics (5th ed.). McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
49. Güneri, B. (2024). Real Effective Exchange Rate and Export Sophistication: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 14(1), 160-175. https://doi.org/10.18074/ckuiibfd.1395437
50. Habib, M. M., Mileva, E., & Stracca, L. (2017). The real exchange rate and economic growth: Revisiting the case using external instruments. Journal of International Money and Finance, 73(Part B), 386–398. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.02.014
51. Harrod, R. F. (1939). An essay in dynamic theory. The Economic Journal, 49(193), 14–33. https://doi.org/10.2307/2225181
52. Hausmann, R., Pritchett, L., & Rodrik, D. (2005). Growth accelerations. Journal of Economic Growth, 10(4), 303–329. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-005-4712-0
53. Hayes, A. F. (2022). Introduction to Mediation, Moderation, and Conditional Process Analysis: A Regression-Based Approach (3. baskı). New York, NY: Guilford Press
54. Heckscher, E. F. (1933). Interregional and international trade. Harvard University Press.
55. Hekim, D. (2025). The effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on total factor productivity (TFP): The case of Türkiye. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 49, 197-208. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1676716
56. Itskhoki, O. (2021). The story of the real exchange rate. Annual Review of Economics, 13, 423–455. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080218-025532
57. İlter, Ş., & Burtan Doğan, B. (2018). Ticari ve finansal dışa açıklık oranı ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(15), 89-115. https://izlik.org/JA82AM34GF
58. İlter, Ş., & Günsoy, B. (2024). Türkiye’de Kamu ve Özel Sektör Dış Borçları ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 24(1), 227-246. https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.1271595
59. Jayadevan, C. M., Hoang, N. T., ve Yarram, S. R. (2025). Interaction effect of economic globalization and income per capita on unemployment. Economies, 13(3), 72. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13030072
60. Kadiroğlu, A. (2023). Türkiye’de dış borcu etkileyen ekonomik faktörler: ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı (1994-2020). Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 16(3), 786-799. https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.1250733
61. Kaplinsky, R. (2000). Globalisation and Unequalisation: What Can Be Learned from Value Chain Analysis? The Journal of Development Studies, 37(2), 117–146. https://doi.org/10.1080/713600071
62. Karahan, Ö., & Bayır, M. (2022). Türkiye’ye yönelik doğrudan yabancı yatırımları etkileyen finansal faktörler. Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(14), 165-181. https://doi.org/10.54831/vanyyuiibfd.1158476
63. Kazdal, A., & Gül, S. (2021). Türkiye’de ihracat ve reel kur arasında zamana göre değişen ilişki: Sektörel düzeyde güncel bir inceleme (Çalışma Tebliği No. 21/38). Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası.
64. Keskin, H., & Kara, M. (2021). Türkiye’de Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru ile Dış Ticaret Dengesi Arasındaki İlişkinin Ekonometrik Analizi. International Journal of Social Science Research, 10(2), 273-284. https://izlik.org/JA48YR26HT
65. Khalid, W., Civcir, İ., Özdeşer, H., & Iqbal, J. (2023). The asymmetric impact of real exchange rate misalignment on growth dynamics in Turkey. Journal of Policy Modeling, 45(6), 1184–1203. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.10.003
66. Kılıç, T. F., & Kızılkaya, O. (2023). Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Yönteminden Ampirik Kanıtlar. Bartın Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 14(27), 41-61. https://doi.org/10.47129/bartiniibf.1292180
67. Kofoğlu, İ. H., & Alaca, Z. (2024). Türkiye’de reel döviz kuru ile ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi. Anadolu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 25(2), 515-544. https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.1383650
68. Krugman, P. (1988). Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang. Journal of Development Economics, 29(3), 253–268. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(88)90044-2
69. Krugman, P. (1999). Balance sheets, the transfer problem, and financial crises. International Tax and Public Finance, 6(4), 459–472. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1008741113074
70. Krugman, P., & Taylor, L. (1977). Contractionary effects of devaluation. Journal of International Economics, 8(3), 445–456. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1996(78)90007-7
71. Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082–1089. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465303772815961
72. McNown, R., Sam, C. Y., & Goh, S. K. (2018). Bootstrapping the autoregressive distributed lag test for cointegration. Applied Economics, 50(13), 1509–1521. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1366643
73. Mohammed, K. (2025). The effect of external debt on economic growth: Evidence from 10 African countries. Human Settlements and Sustainability, 1(1), 41–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hssust.2025.01.001
74. Mohsin, M., Ullah, H., Iqbal, N., Iqbal, W., & Taghizadeh-Hesary, F. (2021). How external debt led to economic growth in South Asia: A policy perspective analysis from quantile regression. Economic Analysis and Policy, 72, 423-437. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2021.09.012
75. Morvillier, F. (2020). Do currency undervaluations affect the impact of inflation on growth? Economic Modelling, 84, 275–292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.04.018
76. Nam, H.-J., & Ryu, D. (2023). FDI and human development: The role of governance, ODA, and national competitiveness. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 85, 101769. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2023.101769
77. Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979–1990. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103
78. Narayan, P. K., & Smyth, R. (2006). What determines migration flows from low‐income to high‐income countries? An empirical investigation of Fiji–Us migration 1972–2001. Contemporary economic policy, 24(2), 332-342. https://doi.org/10.1093/cep/byj019
79. Nardo, M., Saisana, M., Saltelli, A., Tarantola, S., Hoffmann, A., & Giovannini, E. (2008). Handbook on constructing composite indicators: Methodology and user guide. OECD Publishing.
80. Obstfeld, M., & Rogoff, K. (1995). The intertemporal approach to the current account. In G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (Eds.), Handbook of International Economics (Vol. 3, pp. 1731–1799). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1573-4404(05)80014-0
81. Obstfeld, M., & Rogoff, K. (1996). Foundations of international macroeconomics. MIT Press.
82. Ogunjumo, R. A. (2025). Foreign debt and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A new look. Scientific African, 29, e02776. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02776
83. Ohlin, B. (1933). Interregional and international trade. Harvard University Press.
84. Ojeka, O. J., Egbetunde, T., Okoduwa, G. O., Ojeyode, A. O., Jimoh, M., & Ogunbowale, G. O. (2024). Moderating effect of institutional quality on the influence of debt on investment in sub-Saharan Africa. Future Business Journal, 10, 76. https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-024-00362-0
85. Olanrele, I. A., ve Oshota, S. O. (2025). Impact of international trade on Nigeria’s overall human development. Future Business Journal, 11(1), 110. https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-025-00517-7
86. Onatunji, O. G. (2024). Achieving sustainable development in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Do human capital and foreign direct investment matter? Managerial and Decision Economics, 45(7), 4464-4482. https://doi.org/10.1002/mde.4258
87. Pattillo, C., Poirson, H., & Ricci, L. (2002). External debt and growth (Working Paper No. WP/02/69). International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451849073.001
88. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
89. Prasad, E., Rajan, R., & Subramanian, A. (2007). Foreign Capital and Economic Growth. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2007(1), 153-230. https://dx.doi.org/10.1353/eca.2007.0016.
90. Prebisch, R. (1950). The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems. United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America. https://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/29973
91. Puttitanun, T., & Lerskullawat, A. (2025). Human development and economic growth: who benefits the most? Applied Economics, 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2025.2558238
92. Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2010). Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review, 100(2), 573–578. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.2.573
93. Ribeiro, R. S. M., McCombie, J. S. L., & Lima, G. T. (2020). Does real exchange rate undervaluation really promote economic growth? Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 52, 408–417. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2019.02.005
94. Ricardo, D. (1817). On the principles of political economy and taxation. John Murray.
95. Rodrik, D. (2008). The real exchange rate and economic growth. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2008(2), 365–412. https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.0.0020
96. Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5). https://doi.org/10.1086/261725
97. Rostow, W. W. (1960). The stages of economic growth: A non-communist manifesto. Cambridge University Press.
98. Roy, A. (2023). Nexus between economic growth, external debt, oil price, and remittances in India: New insight from novel DARDL simulations. Resources Policy, 83, 103742. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103742
99. Sachs, J. D. (1989). Introduction to Developing country debt and economic performance, Volume 1: The international financial system (pp. 1–36). In J. D. Sachs (Ed.), Developing country debt and economic performance, Volume 1: The international financial system. University of Chicago Press. http://www.nber.org/chapters/c8985
100. Sağır, M., Baysal, D., & Çalış, N. (2024). Küreselleşme sonrası Türkiye’de dış ticaret açığının reel efektif döviz kuru ve dış ticaret hadleriyle modellenmesi: NARDL yaklaşımı. Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 12(3), 629-643. https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v12i3.2405
101. Saha, S., Sadekin, M. N., & Saha, S. K. (2022). Effects of institutional quality on foreign direct investment inflow in lower-middle income countries. Heliyon, 8(10), e10828. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e10828
102. Sam, C. Y., McNown, R., & Goh, S. K. (2019). An augmented autoregressive distributed lag bounds test for cointegration. Economic Modelling, 80, 130-141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.11.001
103. Satrovic, E. (2019). Energy consumptıon, trade openness and growth nexus ın Turkey: Evıdence from vecm. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 20(1), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.491515
104. Sattar, A., Hassan, A., Hussain, M. N., Sakhi, U., & Elahi, A. R. (2022). Impact of foreign direct investment on socio-economic development in belt and road countries. Cogent Economics Finance, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2022.2143772
105. Seraj, M., & Coskuner, C. (2021). Real exchange rate effect on economic growth: comparison of fundamental equilibrium exchange rate and Balassa–Samuelson based Rodrik approach. Journal of Applied Economics, 24(1), 541–554. https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2021.1977083
106. Sghaier, I. M. (2023). Trade openness, financial development and economic growth in North African countries. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 28(2), 1729-1740. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2503
107. Shih, S. (1992). Empowering Technology: Making Your Life Easier. Acer Inc.
108. Singer, H. W. (1950/2012). The distribution of gains between investing and borrowing countries. In R. Jolly (Ed.), Milestones and turning points in development thinking (pp. 265–277). Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137271631
109. Solarin, S. A. (2019). Modelling the relationship between financing by Islamic banking system and environmental quality: Evidence from bootstrap autoregressive distributive lag with Fourier terms. Quality & Quantity, 53(6), 2867–2884. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-019-00904-7
110. Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65–94. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884513
111. Tırpan, N., ve Şen, A. (2025). Ticari açıklık ile kalkınma arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye özelinde bir inceleme (1990-2023). Uluslararası Ticaret ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 9(1-2). https://doi.org/10.30711/utead.1759340
112. Triatmanto, B., Bawono, S., & Wahyuni, N. (2023). The contribution and influence of total external debt, FDI, and HCI on economic growth in Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Philippines. Research in Globalization, 7, 100163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2023.100163
113. Uğurlu, S. (2024). Türkiye’de Küreselleşme Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Girişlerini Etkiliyor mu? ARDL Yaklaşımı. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 13(1), 152-173. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1372205
114. Uslu, H. (2019). Ticari Dışa Açıklık ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye İçin Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Bir Analiz. Anadolu İktisat Ve İşletme Dergisi, 3(1), 39-64. https://izlik.org/JA99HP93YU
115. Usman, K. (2025). A new analytical framework for investigating the debt-growth nexus in E7 economies. Journal of Applied Economics, 28(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2025.2600821
116. Wen, H., & Dai, J. (2021). The change of sources of growth and sustainable development in China: Based on the extended EKC explanation. Sustainability, 13(5), 2803. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13052803
117. Wooldridge, J. M. (2016). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach (6th ed.). Cengage Learning.
118. Yanar, R., & Marangoz, E. (2022). Reel döviz kuru değişimlerinin firma ve sektör ihracat performasına etkisi. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 15(4), 898-912. https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.1089288
119. Yavuz, Y., & Polat, M. (2024). Dış borç–ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye ekonomisi için ekonometrik bir analiz. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, 11(2), 334–354. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1429732
120. Yenisu, E. (2019). Türkiye’de İhracat, İthalat ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 18(3), 1175-1193. https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.418935
121. Yilanci, V., Bozoklu, S., & Gorus, M. S. (2020). Are BRICS countries pollution havens? Evidence from a bootstrap ARDL bounds testing approach with a Fourier function. Sustainable Cities and Society, 55, 102035. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102035
122. Zardoub, A., & Sboui, F. (2023). Impact of foreign direct investment, remittances and official development assistance on economic growth: panel data approach. PSU Research Review, 7(2), 73-89. https://doi.org/10.1108/PRR-04-2020-0012