Türkiye Ekonomisinde Dışa Bağımlılık ve Büyüme İlişkisi: Reel Efektif Döviz Kurunun Koşullu Etkisi

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye ekonomisinde dışa bağımlılık ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi ticaret bağımlılığı (TRD), yabancı yatırım stoku bağımlılığı (NVST), dış borç bağımlılığı (DBT) ve reel efektif döviz kuru (lnREER) değişkenleri üzerinden incelemektedir. 1990–2023 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılmış ve dış entegrasyonun gelir boyutunu daha iyi yansıtmak amacıyla ekonomik performans göstergesi olarak gayrisafi milli gelirin logaritması (lnGNI) tercih edilmiştir. Analizde yapısal değişimleri ve küçük örneklem yanlılığını dikkate almak için Fourier Bootstrap ARDL yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Temel model sonuçlarına göre ticaret bağımlılığı geliri azaltıcı, yatırım bağımlılığı artırıcı, dış borç ise büyümeyi baskılayıcı etki yaratırken reel efektif döviz kuru destekleyici bir rol oynamaktadır. Ticaret bağımlılığı ile döviz kuru etkileşimi modele eklendiğinde, ticaretin büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin kur dinamiklerine bağlı olarak değiştiği görülmektedir. Sonuçlar, dışa bağımlılık kanallarının bağımsız işlemediğini ve makro fiyat koşullarının bu ilişkileri dönüştürdüğünü göstermektedir. Bulgular, Türkiye için kur uyumlu ticaret politikalarının, sürdürülebilir borç yönetiminin ve üretken yabancı yatırım stratejilerinin önemini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Dışa Bağımlılık
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru
• Türkiye

The Relatıonship Between External Dependency and Growth in The Turkish Economy: The Conditional Effect of the Real Effective Exchange Rate

Öz

This study investigates the relationship between external dependency and economic growth in Türkiye by focusing on trade dependency (TRD), foreign investment stock dependency (NVST), external debt dependency (DBT), and the real effective exchange rate (lnREER). Using annual data for the 1990–2023 period, economic performance is proxied by the logarithm of gross national income (lnGNI) to capture the income dimension of external integration. The analysis employs the Fourier Bootstrap ARDL approach to account for structural changes and small-sample bias. Empirical findings indicate a long-run cointegration relationship among the variables. In the baseline model, trade dependency has a negative effect on income, investment dependency has a positive impact, and external debt reduces growth, while the real effective exchange rate exerts a supportive effect. When the interaction between trade dependency and the exchange rate is introduced, the growth effect of trade becomes conditional on exchange rate dynamics. These results show that external dependency channels do not operate independently and that macroeconomic price conditions reshape their influence on growth. The findings highlight the importance of exchange-rate-consistent trade policies, sustainable debt management, and productive foreign investment strategies for Türkiye’s long-term income performance.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Foreign Dependency
• Economic Growth
• Real Effective Exchange Rate
• Türkiye

Kaynakça

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