Ekonomik Entegrasyon ve Finansal Gelişmenin Seçilmiş SSA Ülkelerinin Ekonomik Büyümesi Üzerindeki Etkisi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 1970–2018 dönemi için beş Afrika ülkesinde finansal gelişme (FD) ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi ekonomik entegrasyon bağlamında incelemektedir. VECMX(p,s) modeli kullanılarak yapılan analiz, değişkenler arasında hem uzun dönemli denge ilişkileri hem de kısa dönemli dinamikler olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ampirik bulgulara göre Kamerun’da finansal gelişme, ekonomik büyüme üzerinde kümülatif ve pozitif bir etki meydama getirmektedir. Buna karşılık, Benin ve Nijer’de FD’nin, ne geniş para arzı (broad money) ne de yurtiçi kredi (domestic credit) kanalıyla anlamlı bir etkisi bulunmamaktadır. Çad’da ise geniş para arzı göstergesi olarak FD’nin büyüme üzerinde olumsuz etkisi gözlemlenirken, yurtiçi kredinin etkisi istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değildir. Nijerya’da geniş para arzı büyümeyi pozitif yönde etkilerken, yurtiçi kredi etkisiz kalmaktadır. Ayrıca ülkeler arasında finansal etkileşimlere dair dışsal etkiler (spillover) de tespit edilmiştir. Modelin tahmin gücü tatmin edici düzeydedir. Politika önerileri, her ülkenin mali ve parasal politikalarını özellikle KOBİ’ler ve kooperatifler için krediye erişimi artıracak şekilde uyarlaması gerektiğine işaret etmektedir. Bölgesel düzeyde ise Afrika Birliği’nin entegrasyon stratejilerini, üye ülkelerin farklılaşan finansal yapıları ve kurumsal özelliklerini dikkate alarak tasarlaması önem arz etmektedir.

Keywords

• VECMX
• Finansal Kalkınma
• Ekonomik Entegrasyon
• Afrika Birliği.

Economic Integration and Financial Development Effect on Selected SSA Countries' Economic Growth

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between financial development (FD) and economic growth within the context of economic integration in five African countries over the period 1970–2018. Employing a VECMX(p,s) model, the analysis provides evidence of both long-term equilibrium relationships and short-term dynamics among the variables. The empirical findings reveal that in Cameroon, financial development has a positive cumulative impact on economic growth. In contrast, no significant effect of FD—whether through broad money or domestic credit—is observed in Benin and Niger. In Chad, FD (as proxied by broad money) exerts a negative influence, while domestic credit remains statistically insignificant. Nigeria shows a positive linkage between broad money and growth, yet no statistically significant effect from domestic credit is detected. Moreover, inter-country spillover effects are observed, suggesting a regional dimension to financial interactions. Overall, the estimated VECMX (3,0) model demonstrates satisfactory predictive performance. Policy implications emphasize the need for country-specific adjustments in fiscal and monetary frameworks to improve credit access, particularly for SMEs and cooperative entities. Regionally, the African Union should design integration strategies that are responsive to the heterogeneous financial structures and institutional realities across member states.

Keywords

• VECMX
• Financial Development
• Economic Integration
• African Union.

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