Formulating Anticipatory Action with Impact Forecasting in Humanitarian Risk Management

Year 2025, Volume: 9 Issue: 1, 167 - 188, 16.07.2025

Ahmet Efe

Abstract

In the context of escalating humanitarian challenges exacerbated by climate change and socio-political dynamics, this study explores the formulation of anticipatory action with impact forecasting in humanitarian risk management. Recognizing the inadequacy of traditional reactive approaches, the research highlights the necessity for proactive strategies that leverage predictive data to mitigate disaster impacts. This study adopts a qualitative, exploratory research design, employing a mixed-methods approach to analyze the formulation and implementation of anticipatory action supported by impact forecasting within humanitarian risk management. Through a comprehensive analysis, the study identifies the integral relationship between anticipatory action and impact forecasting, presenting methodologies and best practices for implementation. Key findings indicate that regions employing anticipatory measures informed by accurate forecasting experience reduced disaster-related casualties and improved recovery outcomes. This research contributes to the discourse on enhancing humanitarian effectiveness by advocating for a paradigm shift toward anticipatory frameworks that foster resilience and adaptability via proposing a simple integration workflow and strategic guidance for Türkiye authorities.

Keywords

Anticipatory Action , Impact Forecasting , Humanitarian Risk Management , Proactive Strategies , Disaster Mitigation

İnsani Risk Yönetiminde Etki Tahmini ile Öngörücü Eylem Formülasyonu

Abstract

İklim değişikliği ve sosyo-politik dinamiklerle derinleşen insani zorlukların artışı bağlamında, bu çalışma insani risk yönetiminde etki tahmini ile birlikte öngörücü eylem formülasyonunu araştırmaktadır. Geleneksel reaktif yaklaşımların yetersizliğini kabul eden araştırma, afet zararlarını azaltmak için öngörü verilerini kullanan proaktif stratejilerin gerekliliğini vurgulamaktadır. Bu çalışma, insani risk yönetimi kapsamında etki tahminine dayalı olarak desteklenen öngörücü eylemlerin oluşturulması ve uygulanmasını analiz etmek amacıyla nitel, keşifsel bir araştırma tasarımı benimsemekte ve karma yöntem yaklaşımını kullanmaktadır. Kapsamlı bir analiz aracılığıyla, çalışma öngörücü eylem ile etki tahmini arasındaki integral ilişkiyi belirleyerek, uygulama için metodolojiler ve en iyi uygulamaları sunmaktadır. Ana bulgular, doğru tahminlerle bilgilendirilen öngörücü eylemlerin uygulandığı bölgelerin, afetle ilgili yaralanmaları ve kayıpları azaltırken, iyileşme sonuçlarını da iyileştirdiğini göstermektedir. Bu araştırma, insani yardım etkinliğinin artırılmasına yönelik literatüre anlamlı bir katkı sağlamakta; Türkiye’deki yetkili kurumlar için uygulanabilir bir entegrasyon iş akışı ve stratejik yol haritası önererek, öngörüye dayalı çerçevelere geçişi teşvik etmekte ve böylece dayanıklılık ile uyum kabiliyetini güçlendiren bir paradigma değişimini desteklemektedir.

Keywords

Öngörücü Eylem , Etki Tahmini , İnsani Risk Yönetimi , Proaktif Stratejiler , Felaket Hafifletme

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