ВЛИЯНИЕ ГЛОБАЛИЗАЦИИ НА НЕРАВЕНСТВО ДОХОДОВ: ПОДХОД ФУРЬЕ ADL ДЛЯ РОССИИ

Year 2025, Issue: 13, 299 - 317, 30.06.2025

Fatih Akın

https://doi.org/10.48068/rusad.1603124

Abstract

Глобализация стала важной силой, формирующей современный мир, и повлияла на различные аспекты человеческой жизни, включая экономические, социальные и политические структуры. Глобализация, ускоренная технологическим прогрессом и революциями в области коммуникаций, привела к расширению обмена товарами, услугами, информацией и культурой по всему миру. Однако этот процесс также привел к углублению неравенства доходов. Исходя из этого, целью данного исследования является изучение взаимосвязи между неравенством доходов и глобализацией (экономической, социальной и политической) в России за период 1996-2021 гг с помощью анализа временных рядов. Для отражения неравенства доходов используется коэффициент Джини. Согласно результатам исследования, переменные были признаны стационарными по первым разностям I(1) как в FADF, так и в АDF тестах на единичный корень. Был применен коинтеграционный тест Фурье ADL, и сделан вывод о наличии коинтеграционной связи между переменными. Результаты долгосрочных оценок коэффициентов FMOLS и DOLS свидетельствуют о том, что экономическая и социальная глобализация оказывает все меньшее влияние на неравенство доходов, в то время как политическая глобализация оказывает все большее влияние на неравенство доходов.Для того, чтобы воспользоваться эффектом экономической и социальной глобализации, снижающим неравенство в доходах, в России необходимо разработать политику, направленную на улучшение международного торгового и инвестиционного климата. Приведя в соответствие с мировыми стандартами такие инициативы в области социального обеспечения, как образование и здравоохранение, Россия может значительно повысить качество жизни своих граждан. Однако крайне важно также решить проблему неравенства доходов, к которой может привести политическая глобализация. Этого можно добиться путем проведения внутренней политики, способствующей социальной справедливости и перераспределению доходов. Стратегически продумывая такую политику, Россия может смягчить негативные последствия политической глобализации и в то же время извлечь выгоду из положительных аспектов ее различных измерений. Такой сбалансированный подход будет способствовать построению более справедливого общества, способствуя как экономическому росту, так и социальной сплоченности.

Keywords

Россия , неравенство доходов , глобализация , фурье ADL , FMOLS , DOLS

THE IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION ON INCOME INEQUALITY: A FOURIER ADL APPROACH FOR RUSSIA

Abstract

Globalization has emerged as an important force shaping today’s world and has affected various dimensions of human life, including economic, social and political structures. Globalization, accelerated by technological advances and revolutions in communication, has increased the exchange of goods, services, information and culture around the world. However, this process has also deepened income inequality. Based on this, the aim of this study is to examine the relationship between income inequality and globalization (economic, social, and political) in Russia for the period 1996-2021 using time series analysis. Gini coefficient is used to represent income inequality. According to the findings of the study, the variables were found to be stationary at first differences I(1) in both FADF and ADF unit root tests. Fourier ADL cointegration test was applied and it was concluded that there is a cointegration relationship between the variables. The findings of FMOLS and DOLS long-run coefficient estimators show that economic and social globalization have a decreasing effect on income inequality, whereas political globalization has an increasing effect on income inequality. In order to take advantage of the income inequality-reducing effects of economic and social globalization in Russia, it is crucial to develop policies to improve the international trade and investment climate. By aligning social welfare initiatives such as education and health care with global standards, Russia can significantly improve the quality of life of its citizens. However, it is also critical to address the income inequality that political globalization can lead to. This can be achieved through the implementation of domestic policies that promote social justice and facilitate income redistribution. By strategically designing these policies, Russia can mitigate the negative effects of political globalization and at the same time benefit from the positive aspects of its various dimensions. This balanced approach will contribute to a more equitable society by promoting both economic growth and social cohesion.

Keywords

Russia , income inequality , globalization , fourier ADL , FMOLS , DOLS

KÜRESELLEŞMENİN GELİR EŞİTSİZLİĞİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: RUSYA İÇİN FOURİER ADL YAKLAŞIMI

Abstract

Küreselleşme, günümüz dünyasını şekillendiren önemli bir güç olarak ortaya çıkmış ve ekonomik, sosyal ve politik yapılar da dâhil olmak üzere insan yaşamının çeşitli boyutlarını etkilemiştir. Teknolojik ilerlemeler ve iletişimdeki devrimlerle hız kazanan küreselleşme, dünya genelinde mal, hizmet, bilgi ve kültür alışverişini artırmıştır. Ancak, bu süreç, gelir eşitsizliğini de derinleştirmiştir. Buradan hareketle bu çalışmada, Rusya’nın 1996-2021 dönemine ait gelir eşitsizliği ile küreselleşme (ekonomik, sosyal ve politik) ilişkisinin zaman serileri analizi ile incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Gelir eşitsizliğini temsilen Gini katsayısı kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada elde edilen bulgulara göre, değişkenlerin hem FADF hem de ADF birim kök testlerinde birinci farklarında durağan oldukları I(1) tespit edilmiştir. Fourier ADL eşbütünleşme testi uygulanmış ve değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi bulunduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. FMOLS ve DOLS uzun dönem katsayı tahminci bulguları, ekonomik ve sosyal küreselleşmenin gelir eşitsizliğini azaltıcı etkileri olduğunu, buna karşın politik küreselleşmenin gelir eşitsizliğini artırıcı bir etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Rusya’da ekonomik ve sosyal küreselleşmenin gelir eşitsizliğini azaltıcı etkilerinden yararlanmak amacıyla, uluslararası ticaret ve yatırım ortamını iyileştirmeye yönelik politikaların geliştirilmesi büyük önem taşımaktadır. Eğitim ve sağlık hizmetleri gibi sosyal refah girişimlerini küresel standartlarla uyumlu hale getirilerek, Rusya vatandaşlarının yaşam kalitesini önemli ölçüde artırabilir. Bununla birlikte, politik küreselleşmenin yol açabileceği gelir eşitsizliğini ele almak da kritik bir öneme sahiptir. Bu, sosyal adaleti teşvik eden ve gelirin yeniden dağılımını kolaylaştıran iç politikaların uygulanmasıyla mümkün olabilir. Rusya, bu politikaları stratejik bir şekilde tasarlayarak politik küreselleşmenin olumsuz etkilerini hafifletebilir ve aynı zamanda küreselleşmenin çeşitli boyutlarının olumlu yönlerinden faydalanabilir. Bu dengeli yaklaşım, hem ekonomik büyümeyi hem de sosyal uyumu teşvik ederek daha eşitlikçi bir toplumun oluşmasına katkıda bulunacaktır.

Keywords

Rusya , gelir eşitsizliği , küreselleşme , fourier ADL , FMOLS , DOLS

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