Bir tekstil firmasında satış tahminleri üzerinden emniyet stoğu gün sayısının sistem dinamiği yaklaşımıyla belirlenmesi

Year 2018, Volume: 22 Issue: 2, 826 - 837, 01.04.2018

İbrahim Çil Ebru Karaduman Kübra Nur Özçetin Mümtaz İpek

https://doi.org/10.16984/saufenbilder.416658

Abstract

 Karmaşık bir
sistemin çözümlenebilmesi nedensel döngü diyagramları kurularak veya sistemin dinamikleri
araştırılıp incelenerek mümkün olmaktadır. Günümüzde teknolojinin de
gelişmesiyle birlikte firmaların kar elde edebilmeleri için mevcut sistemlerine
çok iyi hakim olup üretim planlamalarını çok iyi bir şekilde yaparak müşteri
memnuniyetini en üst düzeyde tutmalarına ihtiyaçları vardır. Firmalar ancak bu
şekilde rekabet ortamında ayakta durabileceklerdir. Bu çalışmada yapılan satış
miktarları üzerinden nasıl bir emniyet stoğu politikası belirlenmesi gerektiği,
bu sistemin ne gibi dinamiklerden etkilendiğinin tespitleri yapılmış ve
öngörülerde bulunulmuştur. Bir tekstil firması için nedensel döngü diyagramı
geliştirilmiştir. Bu firmanın emniyet stoğu bekleme süresini sistem dinamiği
yaklaşımıyla simüle ederek stok politikası ortaya konulmuştur.

Keywords

Emniyet stok gün sayısı, Sistem dinamiği, Nedensel döngü diyagramı, Stella

Determination of safety stock day number with system dynamic approach over forecasts sales for a textile company

Abstract

A complex
system is allow to able to be resolved by establishing a causal loop diagrams
or explored by examining the dynamics of the system. Today, along with the
development of technology, companies is also very good to be able to profit
from the current system dominated, by the production planning very well, they
need to keep customer satisfaction at the highest level. Companies will be able
to stand in this way, but in a competitive environment. In this study, it is
required to determine how a safety stock policy on sales volumes made, it has been
made in the detections and predictions about this system affected by which
dynamics. Causal loop diagram is developed for a textile company. This
company's safety stock waiting time is simulated with the system dynamics
approach, inventory policy has been put forward.

Keywords

Safety stock day number, System dynamics, Causal loop diagram, Stella

References

• [1] P. Zipkin, Foundations of Inventory Management, USA: McGraw-Hill. Max Taylor, 2000.
• [2] I. Cil ve Y. S. Turkan, «An ANP - based assessment model for lean enterprise transformation,» Internatıonal Journal Of Advanced Manufacturıng Technology, cilt 64, no. 1, pp. 1113-1130, 2013.
• [3] M. Feng, C. Li, S. McVay ve H. Skaife, «"Does ineffective internal control over financial reporting affect a firm's operations? Evidence from firms' inventory management.",» The Accounting Review, cilt 90, no. 2, pp. 529-557., 2014.
• [4] S. BinSyed, N. N. Mohamad, N. A. Rahman ve R. D. Suhaimi, «A Study on Relationship between Inventory Management and Company Performance: A Case Study of Textile Chain Store,» Journal of Advanced Management Science, cilt 4, no. 4, pp. 1-2, 2016.
• [5] K. Mulinski ve W. Sachs, « Virtual supply chains and their enemies: from static object architecture to dynamic regulation,» Supply Chain Forum: An International Journal, cilt 10, no. 1, pp. 62-76, 2009.
• [6] Z. Verwater-Lukszo ve T. Christina, «System Dynamics modeling to improve complex inventory management in a batch-wise plant,» %1 içinde Proceedings of the 15th European Symposium on Computer-Aided Process Engineering, Barcelona, Spain, 2005.
• [7] M. Shafi, «Management of inventories in textile industry: A cross country research review,» Singaporean Journal of Business Economies and Management Studies, vol. 2, no. 7, pp. 2014., cilt 2, no. 7, pp. -, 2014.
• [8] J. W. Forrester, Industrial dynamics, Cambridge: MIT Press, 1961.
• [9] J. Sterman, Business Dynamics: systems thinking and modeling a complex world, Worldwide: McGraw-Hill, 2000.
• [10] F. Campuzano ve J. Mula, Supply Chain Simulation: A System Dynamics Approach for Improving Performance, London : Springer-Verlag Limited, 2011.
• [11] E. Diehl ve J. Sterman, «Effects of feedback complexity on dynamic decision making,» Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, cilt 62, no. 2, p. 198–215, 1995.
• [12] B. Snabe ve A. Größler, «System dynamics modelling for strategy implementation-case study and issues,» Systems Research and Behavioral Science, cilt 23, no. 4, p. 467–481, 2006,.
• [13] E. Suryani, S. Y. Chou, R. Hartono ve C. H. Chen, «Demand scenario analysis and planned capacity expansion: A system dynamics framework,» Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory, cilt 18, no. 6, p. 732–751, 2010.
• [14] N. M. Rashid, F. Ngalawa ve I. Cil, «Comparative Study of Logistic Industry of Tanzania and Turkey,» International Journal of Operations and Logistics Management, cilt 5, no. 2, pp. 74-82, 2016.
• [15] J. B. Homer ve C. L. StClair, «A Model of HIV Transmission through Needle Sharing. A model useful in analyzing public policies, such as a needle cleaning campaign,» Interfaces, cilt 21, no. 3, pp. 26-29, 1991.
• [16] G. Hirsch, J. Homer, E. Evans ve A. Zielinski, «A System Dynamics Model for Planning Cardiovascular Disease Interventions,» American Journal of Public Health, cilt 100, no. 4, p. 616–622, 2010.
• [17] K. Vogstad, «Combining System Dynamics and Experimental Economics to Analyse the Design of Tradable Green Certificates,» %1 içinde Proceedings of the 38th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, IEEE, Hawaii , 2005.
• [18] M. Dill, «Capital Investment Cycles: A System Dynamics Modelling Approach to Social Theory Developmen,» %1 içinde 15th International System Dynamics Conference: Systems Approach to Learning and Education into the 21st Century, Istanbul, Turkey,, 1997.
• [19] D. Towill, «Industrial dynamics modelling of supply chains,» Logistics Information Managment, cilt 9, no. 4, pp. 43-56, 1996.
• [20] H. T. Lee ve J. C. Wu, «A study on inventory replenishment policies in a two-echelon supply chain system,» Computer & Industrial Engineering, cilt 51, no. -, pp. 257-263, 2006.
• [21] H. I. Demir, O. Uygun, I. Cil, M. Ipek ve M. Sari, «Process planning and scheduling with SLK due-date assignment where earliness, tardiness and due-dates are punished,» Journal of Industrial and Intelligent Information , cilt 3, no. 3, pp. -, 2015.
• [22] M. Schwaninger ve P. Vrhovec, «Supply System Dynamics: Distributed Control in Supply Chains and Networks,» Cybernetics and Systems, cilt 37, no. 5, p. 375–415, 2006.
• [23] I. Cil, O. Kurtcu, H. I. Demir, F. Yener, Y. S. Turkan, M. Unver ve R. Evren, «Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process for Determination of Supply Chain Performance Evaluation Criteria,» World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, International Science Index, Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, 11(9), 1281, cilt 11, no. 9, pp. 1281-, 2017.
• [24] İ. Çil, «Bilgi Tabanlı İmalat Karar Destek Sistemleri ve Bir Uygulama,» Endüstri Mühendisliği, cilt 1, no. 1, pp. 15-27, 2002.
• [25] E. Zwicker, «System Dynamics in Inventory and Production Planning An Introduction and Critical Overview,» OR Spektrum, cilt 1, no. 143, pp. -, 1980.
• [26] I. Cil, N. O. Erdil, T. Kılıc ve B. Kosar, «Lean Logistic Network Design And Analysis With Anylogic,,» %1 içinde XIV. International Logistics And Supply Chain Congress, Izmir, 2016.
• [27] R. Abbou, C. Moussaoui ve J. J. Loiseau, «Effects of inventory control on bullwhip in logistic systems under demand and lead time uncertainties,» IFAC-PapersOnLine, cilt 48, no. 3, pp. 266-271, 2015.
• [28] H. Dai, J. Li, N. Yan ve W. Zhou, «Bullwhip effect and supply chain costs with low-and high-quality information on inventory shrinkage.,» European Journal of Operational Research , cilt 250, no. 2, pp. 457-469, 2016.
• [29] K. Jeong ve B, Analysis of bullwhip effect using the systems dynamics simulation, Houston: University of Houston and South Carolina State University,, 2015, pp. 1-9.
• [30] H. Yasarcan ve Y. Barlas, «A generalized stock control formulation for stock management problems involving composite delays and secondary stocks,» System dynamics review , cilt 21, no. 1, p. 3, 2005.
• [31] İ. Çil ve S. Yalçın, «Yalın Üretimin Bankacılık Sektörüne Uyarlanması ve Bir Benzetim Çalışması,» Sakarya University Journal of Science, cilt 22, no. 2, pp. 624-638, 2018.
• [32] I. Cil, «Internet-based CDSS for modern manufacturing processes selection and justification,» Robotics and Computer-Integrated Manufacturing, cilt 20, no. 3, pp. 177-190.
• [33] J. D. Sterman, J. W. Forrester, A. K. Graham ve P. M. Senge, «An Integrated Approach to the Economic Long Wave. Paper read at Long Waves, Depression, Innovation,» -, Siena-Florence, Italy, 1983.
• [34] Y. Barlas, System Dynamics: Systemic Feedback Modeling for Policy Analysis in Knowledge for Sustainable Development, Paris: Oxford,, 2002.
• [35] T. Çakar ve I. Cil, «Artificial neural networks for design of manufacturing systems and selection of priority rules,» International Journal of Computer Integrated Manufacturing,, cilt 17, no. 3, p. 195–211, 2004.
• [36] I. Cil ve R. Evren, «Linking of manufacturing strategy, market requirements and manufacturing attributes in technology choice: an expert system approach,» The engineering economist, cilt 43, no. 3, pp. 183-202, 1998.
• [37] «Stella Software,,» Çevrimiçi Available: http://www.iseesystems.com/softwares/Education/StellaSoftware.aspx,, -, 2017.