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Askerî Harcamalar ve Silah İhracatı Arasında İlişki Var mıdır? 2000-2019 Sürecini Kapsayan Bir Araştırma

Year 2020, Volume: 30 Issue: 2, 227 - 252, 31.12.2020

Rukiye Can Yalçın Yunus Gökmen Memduh Begenirbaş Hakan Ömer Tunca

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, en çok askerî harcama gerçekleştiren otuz ülkenin askerî harcamaları ve silah ihracatı oranları arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Ampirik çalışma için (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) SIPRI’den elde edilen, 2000-2019 yılları arasında en çok kümülatif askerî harcama gerçekleştiren 30 ülkeye ait veri seti kullanılmıştır. 30 ülkeye ait Askerî Harcamalar ve Silah İhracatı arasındaki ilişki bu dönemi kapsayacak şekilde Korelasyon Analizi ile test edilmiştir. Korelasyon Analizi sonuçlarına göre 9 ülke için (Türkiye, Çin, Güney Kore, Hindistan, ABD, Avustralya, Rusya, Norveç, ve İspanya) askerî harcamalar ile silah ihracatı arasında aynı yönde anlamlı ilişkiye ulaşılmışken, 18 ülke için (Kolombiya, Tayvan, Suudi Arabistan, Pakistan, İran, Polonya, Brezilya, Singapur, Japonya, Yunanistan, Kanada, İsveç, Hollanda, İsrail, İtalya, Fransa, Almanya, İngiltere) anlamlı bir ilişkiye rastlanmamıştır.

Keywords

Askerî Harcama Silah İhracatı Ekonomik Büyüme

References

  • Akgül, A. (1987). Dünyada savunma harcamalari ve savunma sanayiilerinin yapısı, Ankara: Başbakanlık Basımevi.
  • Altmann J., Liebert W., Neuneck G. and Scheffran J. (1998). Dual-use and conversion of military-related R&D in Germany. In: Reppy J. (eds) Conversion of Military R & D. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Anlağan, Ö. (2002). Savunma sanayiinde Ar-Ge’nin rolü. Savunma Sanayiisinde Stratejik İlişkiler Sempozyumu Tebliğ Kitabı. Ankara: Pelin Ofset.
  • BalI, N. (1983). Defense and development: A critiuque of Benoit study, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 31, 507.
  • Benoit, E. (1973). Defense and economic growth in developing countries. Lexington: Lexington Books.
  • Benoit, E. (1978). Growth and defense in developing countries, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26, 271-280.
  • Bishara, A. J., and Hittner, J. B. (2017). Confidence intervals for correlations when data are not normal. Behavior Research Methods, 49(1), 294-309.
  • Biswas, Basudeb, (1992). Defense spending and economic growth in developing countries. Economic Research Institute Study Papers. Retrieved from 18.https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/eri/18 on 05.09.2020
  • Biswas, B. and Ram, R. (1986). Military expenditures and economic growth in less developed countries: An augmented model and further evidence, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(2).
  • Bulutoğlu, K. (1981). Kamu ekonomisine giriş, Kırklareli: Sermet Maatbası.
  • Canbay, S. and Mercan, D. (2017). Savunma harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme ve cari işlemler dengesine etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 2(2), 86-104.
  • Cappelen, A., Gleditsch N.P. and Bjerkholt, O. (1984). Military spending and economic growth in the OECD countries, Journal of Peace Research, 21(4), 361-373.
  • Crawford, S. L. (2006). Correlation and regression. Circulation, 114(19), 2083-2088.
  • Dakurah, H., Davies, S. and Sampath, R. (2001). Defense spending and economic growth in developing countries: A causality analysis, Journal of Policy Modeling, 23(6), 651-658.
  • Deger, S. and Smith, R. (1983). Military expenditure and growth in less developed countries, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 27(2).
  • Deger, S. and Smith, R. (1985). Military expenditure and development: The economic linkages, IDS Bulletin, 16(4).
  • Deger, S. (1986). Economic development and defense expenditure. Economic Development and Cultural Change. 35(1). 179-196.
  • Dunne, J.P. and Nikolaidou, E. (2012). Defence spending and economic growth in the EU15. Defence and Peace Economics, 23(6), 537-548.
  • Dunne, P., Nikolaidou, E. and Vougas, D. (1998). Defence spending and economic growth: A causal analysis for Greece and Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 12(1), 5–26.
  • Dunne, J.P., Nikolaidou, E. and Smith, R.P. (1999). Arms race models and econometric applications, Paper presented at the Conference on the Arms Trade, Security and Conflict, Middlesex University Business School.
  • Dunne, J. P., Smith, R., and Willenbockell, D. (2005). Models of military expenditure and growth: A critical review. Defence and Peace Economics, 16(6), 449– 461.
  • Duyar, M., and Koçoğlu, M. (2014). Askeri harcamaların ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisi; Sahra altı Afrika örneği. Uluslararası Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 7(33), 702-722.
  • Erdeni, F. (1997). Türkiye'de olağanüstü durumlarda savunma harcamaları, (Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi).Bursa: Uludağ Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • Ergun, R. O. (1995). Harp ekonomisi, Silahlı Kuvvetler Dergisi, 297.
  • Europian Commission (2013). Towards a more competitive and efficient defence and security sector, A New Deal for European Defence.
  • Fieller, E. C., Hartley, H. O. and Pearson, E. S. (1957). Tests for rank correlation coefficients. I. Biometrika, 44(3/4), 470-481.
  • Giray, F. (2004). Savunma harcamalari ve ekonomik büyüme, Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 5(1), 181-199.
  • Gokmenoglu, K.K., Taspinar, N. and Sadeghieh, M. (2015). Military expenditure and economic growth: The case of Turkey. 16th Annual Conference on Finance and Accounting. Prague.
  • Göçer, İ. (2014). Ar-Ge Harcamalarının yüksek teknolojili ürün ihracatı, dış ticaret dengesi ve ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri”, Maliye Dergisi, 164: 215-240.
  • Guilford, J. P. (1950). Fundamental statistics in psychology and education.
  • Hassan, M., Kabir, M., Rahman W. and Aminur H. (2003). Defense expenditure and economic growth in the SAARC countries. The Journal of Political, Social and Economic Studies, 28(3), 275-293.
  • Heo, U. (1998). “Modeling the defense-growth relationship around the globe”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 42(5).
  • Hirnissa M. T., Habibullah, M. S. and Bahorom, A. H. (2016). Military expenditures and economic growth in selected developing countries: 208 TESAM Akademi Dergisi/ Turkish Journal of TESAM Academy TESAM causality analysis using panel error-correction approach. JER Serials Publications, 13(5), 2113-2130.
  • Ikegami, M. (1992). The military-industrial complex: The cases of Sweden and Japan. Brookfield, VT: Dartmouth Publishing Company.
  • Ikegami, M. (2013). The end of a national defence industry?: Impacts of globalization on the Swedish defence industry, Scandinavian Journal of History, 38:4, 436-457.
  • Karagöl, E. (2005). Defence expenditures and external debt in Turkey, Defence and Peace Economics, 16, 117-125.
  • Khalid, M., A. Munadhil, A.,J. and Razaq, A. (2015). The impact of military spending on economic growth: evidence from the US economy. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 6(7), 183-190.
  • Koban, E. (1998). Savunma harcamaları, ekonomik etkileri ve Türkiye’deki gelişimi, Gnkur. Askeri Tarih ve Stratejik Etüt Başkanlığı, 355.
  • Kollias, C. (1997). Defence spending and growth in Turkey 1954–1993: A causal analysis, Defence and Peace Economics, 8(2), 189-204.
  • Kollias, C.G. and Makrydakis, S. (1997). Defence spending and growth in Turkey 1954–1993: A causal analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 8, 189–204.
  • Kollias, C., Manolas, G. and Paleologou, S. (2004). Defence spending and economic growth in European union: A causality analysis”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 26 (5).
  • Korkmaz, S. (2015). The effect of military spending on economic growth and unemployment in Mediterranean countries. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues. 5(1), 273-280.
  • Korkmazyürek, H. (2018). Strategic defense management basic concepts and principles, Hiperyayın, İstanbul.
  • Kumar, G. (2017). Countries military expenditures: Definitions and determinants, Economic Affairs, 62(4), 647-654.
  • Meunier, F. (2019). Construction of an operational concept of technological military/civilian duality. Journal of Innovation Economics & Management, 29(2), 159-182.
  • NATO (2019). Defence expenditure of NATO countries (2013-2019), Public Diplomacy Division Press Release, Brussel Belgium.
  • Overholser, B. R., and Sowinski, K. M. (2008). Biostatistics primer: part 2. Nutrition in Clinical Practice, 23(1), 76-84.
  • Pan, C.-I., Tsangyao, C. and Yemane W. R. (2015). Military spending and economic growth in the Middle East countries: Bootstrap panel causality test. Defence and Peace Economics, 26(4), 443–456.
  • Pradhan, R.P. (2010). Defense spending and economic growth in China, India, Nepal and Pakistan: Evidence from cointegrated panel analysis, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2(4).
  • Ram, R. (1995). Defense expenditure and economic growth, Handbook of Defense Economics, Volume 1, Edited by K. Hartley and T. Sandler, Elsevier Science.
  • Romer, P.M. (1989). What determines the rate of growth and technological change? World Bank Working Paper, 279.
  • Saunders, P. (1992). Recent trends in the size and growth of government in OECD countries”, Social Policy Research Centre, UNSW, 17-33.
  • Schober, P., Boer, C., & Schwarte, L. A. (2018). Correlation coefficients: Appropriate use and interpretation. Anesthesia & Analgesia, 126(5), 1763-1768.
  • Sezgin, S. (1997). Country survey X: Defence spending in Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 8:4, 381-409.
  • Sezgin, S. (2000). Defence expenditure and economic growth in Turkey and Greece: A cointegration analysis. Muğla Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi, 1 (1), 191-202.
  • Sezgin, S., (2001). An empirical analysis of Turkey’s defence–growth relationships with a multi-equation model (1956–1994). Defence and Peace Economics, 12 (1), 69– 86.
  • Sezgin, S. (2004). An empirical note on external debt and defence expenditures in Turkey." Defence and Peace Economics, 15(2), 199-203.
  • SIPRI(2016). Year book 2016 armaments, disarmament and international security, Oxford University Press.
  • Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Retrieved from https://www.sipri.org/databases/ arms transfers on 4 September 2020.
  • Saunders, P. (1992). Recent trends in the size and growth of government in OECD countries, Social Policy Research Centre, UNSW, 17-33.
  • Topcu, M. and Aras, I., (2013). Economic impacts of military expenditures: A comparative analysis on superpowers of the world. Actual Problems of Economics, 142 (4), 495-506.
  • Yalçın, H.B. (2017). National security strategy, İstanbul: Turkuaz Haberleşme ve Yayıncılık.
  • Wilkerson, C. R. and Williams, M. D. (2008). How is the rise in national defense spending affecting the tenth district economy? Economic Review. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 93(2), 49-79
  • Zekey, A.H. (1998). Savunma sanayii ve Türkiye, KHO Bilim Dergisi, 8(2), 98.

IS THERE ANY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND ARMS TRANSFER? A RESEARCH FOR THE PERIOD 2000-2019

Year 2020, Volume: 30 Issue: 2, 227 - 252, 31.12.2020

Rukiye Can Yalçın Yunus Gökmen Memduh Begenirbaş Hakan Ömer Tunca

Abstract

The objective of this study is to examine whether there exists a relationship between military expenditure (ME) and arms transfer (AT) level of top thirty most military spending countries. For empirical investigation, the data of top thirty countries in cumulative ME consisting of 2000-2019 period has been adopted from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) official web site (SIPRI, 2020). To explore the association between ME and AT of top thirty countries, Correlation Analysis (CA), which is commonly used for determining relations among variables, has been conducted. The empirical results reveal significant relationships between ME and AT for 9 countries (Turkey, China, South Korea, India, USA, Australia, Russia, Norway, and Spain) with same direction and no significant relationship for other countries (Colombia, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Iran, Poland, Brazil, Singapore, Japan, Greece, Canada, Sweden, Netherlands, Israel, Italy, France, Germany, and UK).

Keywords

Military Expenditure Arms Transfer Economic Growth

References

  • Akgül, A. (1987). Dünyada savunma harcamalari ve savunma sanayiilerinin yapısı, Ankara: Başbakanlık Basımevi.
  • Altmann J., Liebert W., Neuneck G. and Scheffran J. (1998). Dual-use and conversion of military-related R&D in Germany. In: Reppy J. (eds) Conversion of Military R & D. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Anlağan, Ö. (2002). Savunma sanayiinde Ar-Ge’nin rolü. Savunma Sanayiisinde Stratejik İlişkiler Sempozyumu Tebliğ Kitabı. Ankara: Pelin Ofset.
  • BalI, N. (1983). Defense and development: A critiuque of Benoit study, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 31, 507.
  • Benoit, E. (1973). Defense and economic growth in developing countries. Lexington: Lexington Books.
  • Benoit, E. (1978). Growth and defense in developing countries, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26, 271-280.
  • Bishara, A. J., and Hittner, J. B. (2017). Confidence intervals for correlations when data are not normal. Behavior Research Methods, 49(1), 294-309.
  • Biswas, Basudeb, (1992). Defense spending and economic growth in developing countries. Economic Research Institute Study Papers. Retrieved from 18.https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/eri/18 on 05.09.2020
  • Biswas, B. and Ram, R. (1986). Military expenditures and economic growth in less developed countries: An augmented model and further evidence, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(2).
  • Bulutoğlu, K. (1981). Kamu ekonomisine giriş, Kırklareli: Sermet Maatbası.
  • Canbay, S. and Mercan, D. (2017). Savunma harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme ve cari işlemler dengesine etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 2(2), 86-104.
  • Cappelen, A., Gleditsch N.P. and Bjerkholt, O. (1984). Military spending and economic growth in the OECD countries, Journal of Peace Research, 21(4), 361-373.
  • Crawford, S. L. (2006). Correlation and regression. Circulation, 114(19), 2083-2088.
  • Dakurah, H., Davies, S. and Sampath, R. (2001). Defense spending and economic growth in developing countries: A causality analysis, Journal of Policy Modeling, 23(6), 651-658.
  • Deger, S. and Smith, R. (1983). Military expenditure and growth in less developed countries, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 27(2).
  • Deger, S. and Smith, R. (1985). Military expenditure and development: The economic linkages, IDS Bulletin, 16(4).
  • Deger, S. (1986). Economic development and defense expenditure. Economic Development and Cultural Change. 35(1). 179-196.
  • Dunne, J.P. and Nikolaidou, E. (2012). Defence spending and economic growth in the EU15. Defence and Peace Economics, 23(6), 537-548.
  • Dunne, P., Nikolaidou, E. and Vougas, D. (1998). Defence spending and economic growth: A causal analysis for Greece and Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 12(1), 5–26.
  • Dunne, J.P., Nikolaidou, E. and Smith, R.P. (1999). Arms race models and econometric applications, Paper presented at the Conference on the Arms Trade, Security and Conflict, Middlesex University Business School.
  • Dunne, J. P., Smith, R., and Willenbockell, D. (2005). Models of military expenditure and growth: A critical review. Defence and Peace Economics, 16(6), 449– 461.
  • Duyar, M., and Koçoğlu, M. (2014). Askeri harcamaların ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisi; Sahra altı Afrika örneği. Uluslararası Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 7(33), 702-722.
  • Erdeni, F. (1997). Türkiye'de olağanüstü durumlarda savunma harcamaları, (Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi).Bursa: Uludağ Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • Ergun, R. O. (1995). Harp ekonomisi, Silahlı Kuvvetler Dergisi, 297.
  • Europian Commission (2013). Towards a more competitive and efficient defence and security sector, A New Deal for European Defence.
  • Fieller, E. C., Hartley, H. O. and Pearson, E. S. (1957). Tests for rank correlation coefficients. I. Biometrika, 44(3/4), 470-481.
  • Giray, F. (2004). Savunma harcamalari ve ekonomik büyüme, Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 5(1), 181-199.
  • Gokmenoglu, K.K., Taspinar, N. and Sadeghieh, M. (2015). Military expenditure and economic growth: The case of Turkey. 16th Annual Conference on Finance and Accounting. Prague.
  • Göçer, İ. (2014). Ar-Ge Harcamalarının yüksek teknolojili ürün ihracatı, dış ticaret dengesi ve ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri”, Maliye Dergisi, 164: 215-240.
  • Guilford, J. P. (1950). Fundamental statistics in psychology and education.
  • Hassan, M., Kabir, M., Rahman W. and Aminur H. (2003). Defense expenditure and economic growth in the SAARC countries. The Journal of Political, Social and Economic Studies, 28(3), 275-293.
  • Heo, U. (1998). “Modeling the defense-growth relationship around the globe”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 42(5).
  • Hirnissa M. T., Habibullah, M. S. and Bahorom, A. H. (2016). Military expenditures and economic growth in selected developing countries: 208 TESAM Akademi Dergisi/ Turkish Journal of TESAM Academy TESAM causality analysis using panel error-correction approach. JER Serials Publications, 13(5), 2113-2130.
  • Ikegami, M. (1992). The military-industrial complex: The cases of Sweden and Japan. Brookfield, VT: Dartmouth Publishing Company.
  • Ikegami, M. (2013). The end of a national defence industry?: Impacts of globalization on the Swedish defence industry, Scandinavian Journal of History, 38:4, 436-457.
  • Karagöl, E. (2005). Defence expenditures and external debt in Turkey, Defence and Peace Economics, 16, 117-125.
  • Khalid, M., A. Munadhil, A.,J. and Razaq, A. (2015). The impact of military spending on economic growth: evidence from the US economy. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 6(7), 183-190.
  • Koban, E. (1998). Savunma harcamaları, ekonomik etkileri ve Türkiye’deki gelişimi, Gnkur. Askeri Tarih ve Stratejik Etüt Başkanlığı, 355.
  • Kollias, C. (1997). Defence spending and growth in Turkey 1954–1993: A causal analysis, Defence and Peace Economics, 8(2), 189-204.
  • Kollias, C.G. and Makrydakis, S. (1997). Defence spending and growth in Turkey 1954–1993: A causal analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 8, 189–204.
  • Kollias, C., Manolas, G. and Paleologou, S. (2004). Defence spending and economic growth in European union: A causality analysis”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 26 (5).
  • Korkmaz, S. (2015). The effect of military spending on economic growth and unemployment in Mediterranean countries. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues. 5(1), 273-280.
  • Korkmazyürek, H. (2018). Strategic defense management basic concepts and principles, Hiperyayın, İstanbul.
  • Kumar, G. (2017). Countries military expenditures: Definitions and determinants, Economic Affairs, 62(4), 647-654.
  • Meunier, F. (2019). Construction of an operational concept of technological military/civilian duality. Journal of Innovation Economics & Management, 29(2), 159-182.
  • NATO (2019). Defence expenditure of NATO countries (2013-2019), Public Diplomacy Division Press Release, Brussel Belgium.
  • Overholser, B. R., and Sowinski, K. M. (2008). Biostatistics primer: part 2. Nutrition in Clinical Practice, 23(1), 76-84.
  • Pan, C.-I., Tsangyao, C. and Yemane W. R. (2015). Military spending and economic growth in the Middle East countries: Bootstrap panel causality test. Defence and Peace Economics, 26(4), 443–456.
  • Pradhan, R.P. (2010). Defense spending and economic growth in China, India, Nepal and Pakistan: Evidence from cointegrated panel analysis, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2(4).
  • Ram, R. (1995). Defense expenditure and economic growth, Handbook of Defense Economics, Volume 1, Edited by K. Hartley and T. Sandler, Elsevier Science.
  • Romer, P.M. (1989). What determines the rate of growth and technological change? World Bank Working Paper, 279.
  • Saunders, P. (1992). Recent trends in the size and growth of government in OECD countries”, Social Policy Research Centre, UNSW, 17-33.
  • Schober, P., Boer, C., & Schwarte, L. A. (2018). Correlation coefficients: Appropriate use and interpretation. Anesthesia & Analgesia, 126(5), 1763-1768.
  • Sezgin, S. (1997). Country survey X: Defence spending in Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 8:4, 381-409.
  • Sezgin, S. (2000). Defence expenditure and economic growth in Turkey and Greece: A cointegration analysis. Muğla Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi, 1 (1), 191-202.
  • Sezgin, S., (2001). An empirical analysis of Turkey’s defence–growth relationships with a multi-equation model (1956–1994). Defence and Peace Economics, 12 (1), 69– 86.
  • Sezgin, S. (2004). An empirical note on external debt and defence expenditures in Turkey." Defence and Peace Economics, 15(2), 199-203.
  • SIPRI(2016). Year book 2016 armaments, disarmament and international security, Oxford University Press.
  • Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Retrieved from https://www.sipri.org/databases/ arms transfers on 4 September 2020.
  • Saunders, P. (1992). Recent trends in the size and growth of government in OECD countries, Social Policy Research Centre, UNSW, 17-33.
  • Topcu, M. and Aras, I., (2013). Economic impacts of military expenditures: A comparative analysis on superpowers of the world. Actual Problems of Economics, 142 (4), 495-506.
  • Yalçın, H.B. (2017). National security strategy, İstanbul: Turkuaz Haberleşme ve Yayıncılık.
  • Wilkerson, C. R. and Williams, M. D. (2008). How is the rise in national defense spending affecting the tenth district economy? Economic Review. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 93(2), 49-79
  • Zekey, A.H. (1998). Savunma sanayii ve Türkiye, KHO Bilim Dergisi, 8(2), 98.
There are 64 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section The Journal of Defence and War Studies December 2020
Authors

Rukiye Can Yalçın This is me 0000-0003-4500-6935

Yunus Gökmen This is me 0000-0002-6107-0577

Memduh Begenirbaş This is me 0000-0003-0917-0973

Hakan Ömer Tunca

Publication Date December 31, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 30 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Can Yalçın, R., Gökmen, Y., Begenirbaş, M., Tunca, H. Ö. (2020). Askerî Harcamalar ve Silah İhracatı Arasında İlişki Var mıdır? 2000-2019 Sürecini Kapsayan Bir Araştırma. SAVSAD Savunma Ve Savaş Araştırmaları Dergisi, 30(2), 227-252.
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