İhracat ve İthalatın Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

Bu çalışmada ihracat ve ithalatın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi Türkiye örneğinde 1990-2021 periyodunda analiz edilmektedir. Literatür ile uyumlu olacak şekilde sabit sermaye, doğal kaynaklar ve yenilenebilir enerji kullanımı da büyüme modeline diğer açıklayıcı değişkenler olarak entegre edilmektedir. Eşbütünleşme analizinin gerçekleştirilmesinde ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımından, uzun dönem tahminlerinde ise FMOLS tahmincisinden yararlanılmaktadır. Serilerin birinci farkında durağan olduğuna hükmedilmektedir. Seriler arasında eşütünleşmenin varlığına rastlanılmaktadır. İhracat ekonomik büyümeyi teşvik ederken ithalatın azaltıcı etkisi ortaya çıkmaktadır. Son olarak; sabit sermaye, doğal kaynaklar ve yenilenebilir enerji kulanımının ekonomik büyümeyi hızlandırdığı çıktısı belirlenmektedir. Bulgulardan ihracat odaklı büyüme yaklaşımını teşvik eden uygulamalara hız verilmesi gerektiği ve ithalat stratejilerinin gözden geçirilmesi zorunluluğu politika yapıcılarına salık verilebilir.

Keywords

• İhracat
• İthalat
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• ARDL
• FMOLS

The Impact of Exports and Imports on Economic Growth: The Case Of Turkey

Abstract

In this study, the impact of exports and imports on economic growth is analyzed in the case of Turkey in the period 1990-2021. Consistent with the literature, fixed capital, natural resources and renewable energy use are also integrated into the growth model as other explanatory variables. ARDL bounds test approach is used to perform cointegration analysis, and FMOLS estimator is used for long-term predictions. The series is judged to be stationary at the first difference. There is cointegration between the series. While exports stimulate economic growth, imports have a reducing effect. Finally; It is determined that fixed capital, natural resources and renewable energy use accelerate economic growth. From the findings, it can be recommended to policy makers that practices that encourage an export-oriented growth approach should be accelerated and import strategies should be reviewed.

Keywords

• Exports
• Imports
• Economic Growth
• ARDL
• FMOLS

References

1. Aktaş, C. (2009). Türkiye’nin ihracat, ithalat ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik analizi. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (18), 35-47.
2. Aluko, O.A., & Obalade, A.A. (2020). Import-economic growth nexus in selected African countries: An application of the Toda-Yamamoto Granger non-causality test. Zagreb Int. Rev. Econ. Bus. 23, 117-128.
3. Awokuse, T.O. (2007). Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies. Economics Letters, 94, 389-395. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2006.08.025
4. Azam, A., Ateeq, M., Shafique, M., Rafiq, M., & Yuan, J. (2023). Primary energy consumption-growth nexus: The role of natural resources, quality of government, and fixed capital formation. Energy, 263, 125570. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.125570
5. Bozatli, O., Bal, H., & Albayrak, M. (2022). Testing the export-led growth hypothesis in Turkey: New evidence from time and frequency domain causality approaches. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 32(6), 835-853. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2022.2144932
6. Brown, R.L., Durbin, J., & Evans, J.M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relations over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37(2), 149-163. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2984889
7. Chang, T., Gupta, R., Inglesi-Lotz, R., Simo-Kengne, B., Smithers, D., & Trembling, A. (2015). Renewable energy and growth: Evidence from heterogeneous panel of G7 countries using Granger causality. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 52, 1405-1412. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.08.022
8. David, J., Gamal, A.A.M., Noor, M.A.M., & Zakariya, Z. (2024). Oil rent, corruption and economic growth relationship in Nigeria: Evidence from various estimation techniques. Journal of Money Laundering Control, 27(5), 962-979. https://doi.org/10.1108/JMLC-10-2023-0160

9. Deka, A., Ozdeser, H., & Seraj, M. (2023). The impact of primary energy supply, effective capital and renewable energy on economic growth in the EU-27 countries: A dynamic panel GMM analysis. Renewable Energy, 219,119450. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2023.119450
10. Dickey, D.A., & Fuller, W.A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1912517.
11. Dritsaki, C., & Stiakakis, E. (2014). Foreign direct investments, exports, and economic growth in Croatia: A time series analysis. Procedia Economics and Finance, 14, 181-190. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(14)00701-1
12. Durairaj, K. (2010). Foreign direct investment export and economic growth in India: An application of ARDL model. Asian-African Journal of Economics and Econometrics, 10(2), 245-259. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2259234
13. Federico, A.P., & Parello, C.P. (2024). Growth accelerations and takeoffs: Is there a role for capital accumulation? Economics Letters, 236, 111576. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111576
14. Granger, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating causal relation by econometric and cross-sectional method. Econometrica, 37, 424-438. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791.
15. Goh, S.K., Sama, C.Y., & McNown, R. (2017). Re-examining foreign direct investment, exports, and economic growth in Asian economies using a bootstrap ARDL test for cointegration. Journal of Asian Economics, 51, 12-22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2017.06.001
16. Guru-Gharana, K.K. (2012). Relationships among export, FDI and growth in India: An application of auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Journal of International Business Research, 11(1), 1-18.
17. Güven, E.T.A. (2021). İhracata dayalı büyüme modeli: Türkiye örneği (1980-2020). Aksaray Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 13(1), 63-70.
18. Hansen, B.E., & Phillips, P.C.B. (1990). Estimation and inference in models of cointegration: A simulation study. Advances in Econometrics, 8, 225-248.
19. Hatemi-J, A. (2002). Export performance and economic growth nexus in Japan: A bootstrap approach. Japan and the World Economy, 14, 25-33.
20. Hsiao, F.S.T., & Hsiao, M.C.W. (2006). FDI, exports, and GDP in East and Southeast Asia-panel data versus time-series causality analyses. Journal of Asian Economics, 17(6), 1082-1106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2006.09.011
21. Kahia, M., Ben Aïssa, M.S., & Charfeddine, L. (2016). Impact of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on economic growth: New evidence from the MENA net oil exporting countries (NOECs). Energy, 116, 102e115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.07.126
22. Khalid, U., & Bashir, U. (2022). The effects of imports and economic growth in Chinese economy: A Granger causality approach under VAR framework. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15, 531. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15110531
23. Koopman, E., & Wacker, K.M. (2023). Drivers of growth accelerations: What role for capital accumulation? World Development, 169, 106297. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106297
24. Krueger, A.O. (1978). Foreign trade regimes and economic development: Liberalisation attempts and consequences. Trade Regimes Econ. Dev. 114 (4), 834-836.
25. Kumar, N. (2024). Natural resources and economic growth: Examining the role of globalization, financial development, and digitalization in India. Resources Policy, 97, 105260. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105260
26. Lee, C.C., Xuan, C., & Wang, F. (2024). Natural resources and green economic growth: The role of artificial intelligence. Resources Policy, 98, 105322. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105322
27. Li, Y., Tariq, M., Khan, S., Rjoub, H., & Azhar, A. (2022). Natural resources rents, capital formation and economic performance: Evaluating the role of globalization. Resources Policy, 78, 102817. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102817
28. Li, P., Liu, T., Li, J., Ling, F.K., & Li, Z. (2024a). Exploring the impact of fintech, natural resources, energy consumption, and international trade on economic growth in China: A dynamic ARDL approach. Resources Policy, 98, 105310. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105310
29. Li, Q., He, H., Oskenbayev, Y., & Ullah, I. (2024b). Exploring the nexus of geopolitical risk, green financing, and natural resource rents: A study of Russia’s economic growth. Resources Policy, 96, 105199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105199
30. Makun, K.K. (2018). Imports, remittances, direct foreign investment and economic growth in Republic of the Fiji Islands: An empirical analysis using ARDL approach. Kasetsart Journal of Social Sciences, 39(3), 439-447. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.kjss.2017.07.002
31. Marwaha, K., & Tavakoli, A. (2004). The effect of foreign capital and imports on economic growth: Further evidence from four Asian countries (1970-1998). Journal of Asian Economics, 15, 399-413. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2004.02.008
32. Merlin, M.L., & Chen, Y. (2021). Analysis of the factors affecting electricity consumption in DR Congo using fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) estimation approach. Energy, 232, 121025. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.121025
33. Molepo, E.P. and Jordaan, A.C. (2024). A causal analysis between exports, imports and GDP per capita in the Southern African Customs Union Countries. Studies in Economics and Econometrics, 48(2), 168-185. https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2024.2343723
34. Muhammad, B., & Khan, S. (2019). Effect of bilateral FDI, energy consumption, CO2 emission and capital on economic growth of Asia countries. Energy Reports, 5, 1305-1315. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2019.09.004
35. Olayungbo, D.O. (2019). Effects of oil export revenue on economic growth in Nigeria: A time varying analysis of resource curse. Resources Policy, 64, 101469. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.101469
36. Park, J.Y. (1992). Canonical cointegrating regressions. Econometrica, 60(1), 119-143.
37. Pedroni, P. (2000). Fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated panels. Advanced Economics, 15, 93-130. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0731-9053(00)15004-2.
38. Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616.
39. Phillips, P.C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75, 335-46. https://doi.org/10.2307/2336182.
40. Pınar, A. (2024). İhracat ve ithalatın ekonomik büyüme ile ilişkisi: Türkiye üzerine ampirik bir çalışma. Journal of Social, Humanities and Administrative Sciences, 10(5), 683-688, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13851830
41. Quaicoe, A., Aboagye, A.Q.Q., & Bokpin, G.A. (2017). Assessing the impact of export processing zones on economic growth in Ghana. Research in International Business and Finance, 42, 1150-1163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.052
42. Raihan, A., Ibrahim, S., & Muhtasim, D.A. (2023). Dynamic impacts of economic growth, energy use, tourism, and agricultural productivity on carbon dioxide emissions in Egypt. World Development Sustainability, 2, 100059. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wds.2023.100059
43. Raihan, A., Ibrahim, S., Ridwan, M., Rahman, M.S., Bari, B.M.M., & Atasoy, F.G. (2025). Role of renewable energy and foreign direct investment toward economic growth in Egypt. Innovation and Green Development, 4, 100185. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.igd.2024.100185
44. Ramos, F.F.R. (2001). Exports, imports, and economic growth in Portugal: Evidence from causality and cointegration analysis. Economic Modelling, 18, 613-623.
45. Salem, L.B., Nouira, R., Jeguirim, K. and Rault, S. (2022). The determinants of crude oil prices: Evidence from ARDL and nonlinear ARDL approaches. Resources Policy, 79, 103085. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.103085
46. Shahbaz, M., Loganathan, N., Zeshan, M., & Zaman, K. (2015). Does renewable energy consumption add in economic growth? An application of auto-regressive distributed lag model in Pakistan. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 44, 576-585. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.01.017
47. Sunde, T. (2017). Foreign direct investment, exports and economic growth: ADRL and causality analysis for South Africa. Research in International Business and Finance, 41, 434-444. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.04.035
48. Sunde, T., Blessing, T. and Anthony, A. (2023). Testing the impact of exports, imports, and trade openness on economic growth in Namibia: Assessment using the ARDL cointegration method. Economies, 11, 86. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11030086
49. Tekin, R.B. (2012). Economic growth, exports and foreign direct investment in least developed countries: A panel Granger causality analysis. Economic Modelling, 29(3), 868-878. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2011.10.013
50. Usman, K., & Bashir, U. (2022). The causal nexus between imports and economic growth in China, India and G7 countries: Granger causality analysis in the frequency domain. Heliyon, 8(8), e10180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e10180