İhracat ve İthalatın Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Bu çalışmada ihracat ve ithalatın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi Türkiye örneğinde 1990-2021 periyodunda analiz edilmektedir. Literatür ile uyumlu olacak şekilde sabit sermaye, doğal kaynaklar ve yenilenebilir enerji kullanımı da büyüme modeline diğer açıklayıcı değişkenler olarak entegre edilmektedir. Eşbütünleşme analizinin gerçekleştirilmesinde ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımından, uzun dönem tahminlerinde ise FMOLS tahmincisinden yararlanılmaktadır. Serilerin birinci farkında durağan olduğuna hükmedilmektedir. Seriler arasında eşütünleşmenin varlığına rastlanılmaktadır. İhracat ekonomik büyümeyi teşvik ederken ithalatın azaltıcı etkisi ortaya çıkmaktadır. Son olarak; sabit sermaye, doğal kaynaklar ve yenilenebilir enerji kulanımının ekonomik büyümeyi hızlandırdığı çıktısı belirlenmektedir. Bulgulardan ihracat odaklı büyüme yaklaşımını teşvik eden uygulamalara hız verilmesi gerektiği ve ithalat stratejilerinin gözden geçirilmesi zorunluluğu politika yapıcılarına salık verilebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İhracat
• İthalat
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• ARDL
• FMOLS

The Impact of Exports and Imports on Economic Growth: The Case Of Turkey

Öz

In this study, the impact of exports and imports on economic growth is analyzed in the case of Turkey in the period 1990-2021. Consistent with the literature, fixed capital, natural resources and renewable energy use are also integrated into the growth model as other explanatory variables. ARDL bounds test approach is used to perform cointegration analysis, and FMOLS estimator is used for long-term predictions. The series is judged to be stationary at the first difference. There is cointegration between the series. While exports stimulate economic growth, imports have a reducing effect. Finally; It is determined that fixed capital, natural resources and renewable energy use accelerate economic growth. From the findings, it can be recommended to policy makers that practices that encourage an export-oriented growth approach should be accelerated and import strategies should be reviewed.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Exports
• Imports
• Economic Growth
• ARDL
• FMOLS

Kaynakça

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