THE EFFECTS OF NAFTA ON THE MEXICAN ECONOMY: SYNTHETIC CONTROL METHOD APPROACH

Year 2017, Volume: 22 Issue: 3, 915 - 926, 30.07.2017

Asli Dolu Türkmen Göksel

Abstract

The influence of trade liberalization, which began to be monitored from the mid-1980 The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was signed on January 1, 1994, with the participation of Canada and Mexico under the leadership of the United States. During this period of intensifying efforts to liberate world trade, reforms have been made to liberalize the economy for the Mexican economy, one of the most economically protective states and has made it one of the most open states in the World. After NAFTA entered into force, Mexico's economy has grown significantly. However, it is a matter of debate whether this growth is due to NAFTA. In this study, using the Synthetic Control Method developed by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), in the post-NAFTA period, Mexico's per capita income, exchange of export and import data with the United States has been examined. The question “What would be the per capita national income and foreign trade data for Mexico if NAFTA was not signed in the study?” has been tried to be answered by creating a synthetic Mexican with this method. Analysis findings reveals the findings that after NAFTA, there was a significant increase in exports and imports of Mexico with the US, but a negative impact on Mexico's per capita national income.

Keywords

Synthetic Control Method, Economic Integration, NAFTA, Per capita income, Mexico

NAFTA’NIN MEKSİKA EKONOMİSİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: SENTETİK KONTROL METOT YAKLAŞIMI

Abstract

1980’lerin ortalarından itibaren izlenmeye başlanan ticaret serbestisi sürecinin etkisiyle Amerika Birleşik Devletleri (ABD) önderliğinde Kanada ve Meksika’nın da katılımıyla 1 Ocak 1994 yılında Kuzey Amerika Serbest Ticaret Anlaşması (NAFTA) imzalanmıştır. Dünya ticaretini serbestleştirme çabalarının yoğunluk kazandığı bu dönemde ekonomik anlamda en korumacı devletlerinden biri olan Meksika ekonomisi için ekonominin liberalleşmesine yönelik reformlar zorunlu hale gelmiş ve dünyanın en açık devletlerinden biri haline getirmiştir. NAFTA’nın yürürlüğe girmesinden sonra Meksika ekonomisi önemli ölçüde bir büyüme kaydetmiştir. Ancak bu büyümenin NAFTA sayesinde olup olmadığı tartışma konusu olmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Abadie ve Gardeazabal (2003) çalışmasında geliştirilen Sentetik Kontrol Metot kullanılarak NAFTA sonrası dönemde Meksika’nın kişi başı milli gelir ve ABD ile gerçekleşen ihracat ve ithalat verilerinin değişimi incelenmiştir. Çalışmada “NAFTA imzalanmasaydı Meksika için kişi başı milli gelir ve dış ticaret verileri ne olurdu?” sorusu Sentetik Kontrol Metot ile sentetik bir Meksika oluşturularak cevaplanmaya çalışılmıştır. Analiz bulguları; NAFTA sonrası dönemde Meksika’nın ABD ile ihracat ve ithalat verilerinde önemli oranda bir artış gerçekleşirken, Meksika’nın kişi başı milli gelirinde olumsuz bir etkinin görüldüğünü ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

Sentetik Kontrol Metot, Ekonomik Bütünleşme, NAFTA, Kişi başı milli gelir, Meksika

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