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Ortadoğu’da Askeri Denge ve İttifaklar: I. Dünya Savaşı’ndan Yeni Dünya Düzeni’ne Bir Süreç Analizi (1918-2010)

Year 2020, Issue: 43, 467 - 496, 15.06.2020
https://doi.org/10.21497/sefad.756111

Abstract

Günümüz Uluslararası İlişkiler disiplini için en çok ilgi çeken bölgelerden birisi olan Ortadoğu’nun güvenlik atmosferine ve askeri dengesine dair Türkçe ve İngilizce yazın dizinde hala önemli boşluklar bulunmaktadır. Bu durum özellikle Türkçe literatürde daha elzem bir durumdayken bu çalışma var olan bu boşluğun belli bir düzeyde de olsa giderilmesi hedefini taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Ortadoğu askeri dengesinin Osmanlı’nın yıkılışı sonrasında hangi parametreler üzerinden oluştuğu ve bu dengenin hangi devletlerce normlaştırılmaya ve hangi devletlerce değiştirilmeye çalışıldığı analiz edilmiştir. Bu çalışmada, makale içerisinde sunulan dönemselleştirme dahilinde, savunma harcamalarını, askeri çatışmaları, bölgesel ittifakları ve küresel iş birliklerini bağımsız değişkenler olarak ele alınmaktadır. Bu parametreler vasıtasıyla da Ortadoğu askeri dengesinin seyri ve yaşanan değişiklikler açıklanmaya çalışılmaktadır. Bu süreç analizi sayesinde Ortadoğu’da son asırda oluşan ittifaklardan yola çıkılarak bir bölgesel ittifak tipolojisine ulaşılmaya çalışılmıştır. Bu makalenin gidermeye çalıştığı en asli yazın dizin boşluğu bölgenin modern askeri tarihini bir arada sunan tarihsel çalışmaların yoksunluğudur. Bu anlamda makale çatışmaların, savunma harcamalarının, bölgesel ittifakların ve küresel iş birliklerinin askeri dengeye olan etkisine odaklanırken ticaret, güvenlik dışında kalan politik süreçler vb. değişkenleri çalışmanın ölçeğini sınırlandırmak adına kontrol değişkenleri olarak araştırmanın dışında bırakmıştır. Bu soyutlaştırma ve kısıtlamanın temel amacı bu makalenin Ortadoğu askeri dengesi üzerinde yoğunlaşmasını sağlamak ve Ortadoğu güvenliğini sadece bu boyutuyla ele alarak çalışmanın fizibilitesini arttırmaktır. Çalışmanın en önemli üç bulgudan ilki bölge askeri dengesinde Soğuk Savaş sürecinin ve küresel rekabetin izdüşümünün sahip olduğu şekillendirici etkidir. İkincisi, Arap-İsrail sorununun süregelen çözümsüzlük vasfı ile bir meydan okuma aracına dönüşmüş olmasıdır. Son bulgu ise bölgedeki ittifakların temel anlamda üç parametre üzerinden şekillendiğidir.

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  • Khadduri, M., & Ghareeb, E. (2001). War in the Gulf, 1990-91: the Iraq-Kuwait conflict and its implications. Oxford University Press.
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  • Mangold, P. (2013). Superpower Intervention in the Middle East (Routledge Revivals). Routledge.
  • Marr, P. (2018). The modern history of Iraq. Routledge.
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Military Balance and Alliances in the Middle East: A Process Tracing between the WWI and the New World Order (1918-2010)

Year 2020, Issue: 43, 467 - 496, 15.06.2020
https://doi.org/10.21497/sefad.756111

Abstract

There are several lacunas in both Turkish and English literature regarding security and the military balance in the Middle East which has become a hotbed for International Relations discipline. This study forms the first part of a two-staged analysis including the first stage as the period between the WWI and the Cold War’s end whereas the second state is the period between the establishment of the New World Order and the Arap Uprisings. This article utilizes the defense expenditures, military conflicts, regional alliances and global alignments as independent variables within the framework presented in the study. Through these variables, the course of the military balance in the Middle East and the causes behind trend swings is attempted to be explicated. A complementary part of this study indicates the alliance typology for the Middle East based on the alliances formed in the last century. The utmost aim of this study is to present an analysis on the military developments and the history of military balance in a methodological summarizing format. The impact of economy and non-security political processes are omitted as control variables in terms of both feasibility and maintaining the focus in the military domain. The main findings of this study are that the projection of the international political competetion plays a transformative role in the region expecially during the Cold War; the prolonged Arab-Israeli conflict provided a platform for the Middle Eastern states to challange the status quo and the alliances are formed mostly on three certain criteria.

References

  • Armaoğlu, F. H. (1983). 20. yüzyıl siyasî tarihi 1914-1980 (Vol. 17). İstanbul: Türkiye İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları.
  • Armaoğlu, F. H. (1989). Filistin meselesi ve Arap-İsrail savaşları, 1948-1988 (No. 299). İstanbul: Türkiye İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları.
  • Ashton, N. (1998). Britain and the Kuwaiti crisis, 1961. Diplomacy and Statecraft, 9(1), 163-181.
  • Aydın, F. (2018). Yahudiler/Yahudilik Açısından Kudüs. Eskiyeni, (37), 109-125.
  • Bailey, C. (2019). Jordan's Palestinian challenge, 1948-1983: a political history. Routledge.
  • Bar-Joseph, U. (2013). The best of enemies: Israel and Transjordan in the war of 1948. Routledge.
  • Batuk, C., & Mert, R. (2017). Çatışan Kutsalların Ortasındaki Şehir: Kudüs. Dinbilimleri Akademik Araştırma Dergisi, 17(2), 129-149.
  • Biger, G. (1989). The Shatt‐Al‐Arab river boundary: a note. Middle Eastern Studies, 25(2), 249-252.
  • Braut-Hegghammer, M. (2011). Revisiting Osirak: Preventive Attacks and Nuclear Proliferation Risks. International Security, 36(1), 101-132.
  • Clawson, P., & Rubin, M. (2005). Eternal Iran: continuity and chaos. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Cleveland, W. L. (2018). A history of the modern Middle East. Routledge.
  • Cohen, H. (2015). Year zero of the Arab-Israeli conflict 1929. Brandeis University Press.
  • Cohen, M. J. (2014). Palestine and the Great Powers, 1945-1948 (Vol. 850). Princeton University Press.
  • Cordesman, A. H. (2016). After the Storm: The Changing Military Balance in the Middle East. New York: Bloomsbury Publishing.
  • Cordesman, A. H., ve Al-Rodhan, K. R. (2006). Gulf military forces in an Era of Asymmetric Wars. Westport: Greenwood Publishing Group.
  • Çandar, C. (2009). Turkey's" soft Power" Strategy: A New Vision for a Multi-polar World. Universitäts-und Landesbibliothek Sachsen-Anhalt.
  • Dayan, M. (1966). Diary of the Sinai campaign. Harper & Row.
  • Fatemi, K. (1982). Leadership by distrust: The Shah's modus operandi. Middle East Journal, 36(1), 48-61.
  • Ferris, J. (2012). Nasser's gamble: how intervention in Yemen caused the Six-Day War and the decline of Egyptian power. Princeton University Press.
  • Freedman, L., & Karsh, E. (1991). How Kuwait Was Won: Strategy in the Gulf War. International Security, 16(2), 5-41.
  • Gawrych, G. W. (2000). The albatross of decisive victory: War and policy between Egypt and Israel in the 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israeli wars (No. 188). Greenwood Publishing Group.
  • Gibler, D. M. (2008). International Military Alliances, 1648-2008. Washington: CQ Press.
  • Ginor, I. (2000). The Russians Were Coming: The Soviet Military Threat in the 1967 Six-Day War. Middle East Review of International Affairs, 4(4), 32-36.
  • Glassman, J. D. (1975). Arms for the Arabs: The Soviet Union and War in the Middle East. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
  • Gross, N. T., & Metzer, J. (1978). Public finance in the Jewish economy in interwar Palestine. Jerusalem: JAI Press.
  • Hale, W. (1980). Ideology and economic development in Turkey 1930–1945. British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 7(2), 100-117.
  • Harkavy, R. E., & Kemp, G. (1997). Strategic geography and the changing Middle East. Virginia: RR Donnely and Sons Co.
  • Herzog, C. (1984). The Arab-Israeli Wars: War and Peace in the Middle East from the War of Independence to Lebanon. Arms and Armour Press.
  • Hinnebusch, R. (2015). The international politics of the Middle East. Manchester University Press.
  • Holcombe, R. G. (1996). Growth of the Federal Government in the 1920s, The Cato Journal, 16, 175.
  • International Institute for Strategic Studies. (1973). The Military Balance, Vol. 73, London: Routlegde.
  • International Institute for Strategic Studies. (1975). Strategic Survey 1974-1975. London: Routlegde.
  • International Institute for Strategic Studies. (1983). Strategic Survey 1982-1983. London: Routlegde.
  • International Institute for Strategic Studies. (1986). Strategic Survey 1985-1986. London: Routlegde.
  • International Institute for Strategic Studies. (1986). The Military Balance, Vol. 86 London: Routlegde.
  • International Institute for Strategic Studies. (1988). Strategic Survey 1987-1988. London: Routlegde.
  • International Institute for Strategic Studies. (1990). Strategic Survey 1989-1990. London: Routlegde.
  • International Institute for Strategic Studies. (1990). The Military Balance, Vol. 90, London: Routlegde.
  • International Institute for Strategic Studies. (1996). Strategic Survey 1995-1996. London: Routlegde.
  • International Institute for Strategic Studies. (2001). The Military Balance, Vol. 101, London: Routlegde.
  • International Institute for Strategic Studies. (2002). The Military Balance, Vol. 102, London: Routlegde.
  • International Institute for Strategic Studies. (2003). Strategic Survey 2002-2003. London: Routlegde.
  • International Institute for Strategic Studies. (2006). Strategic Survey 2005-2006. London: Routlegde.
  • International Institute for Strategic Studies. (2006). The Military Balance, Vol. 106, London: Routlegde.
  • International Institute for Strategic Studies. (2007). Strategic Survey 2006-2007. London: Routlegde.
  • International Institute for Strategic Studies. (2007). The Military Balance, Vol. 107. London: Routlegde.
  • International Institute for Strategic Studies. (2010). The Military Balance, Vol. 110, London: Routlegde.
  • Jankowski, J. P. (2002). Nasser's Egypt, Arab Nationalism, and the United Arab Republic. Lynne Rienner Publishers.
  • Karpat, K. H. (2011). Osmanlı’dan Günümüze Ortadoğu’da Millet, Milliyet, Milliyetçilik. Timaş Yayınları.
  • Keesing’s Contemporary News Archives, 1948-1950, ss. 9743-44.
  • Keesing’s Contemporary World News Archive, 1965-66, s. 21817.
  • Keesing’s World News Archive, 1969-70, s. 24019.
  • Kerr, M. H. (1971). The Arab Cold War: Gamal ʼAbd al-Nasir and his Rivals, 1958-1970 (Vol. 358). Oxford University Press.
  • Khadduri, M., & Ghareeb, E. (2001). War in the Gulf, 1990-91: the Iraq-Kuwait conflict and its implications. Oxford University Press.
  • Khouri, F. J. (1985). The Arab Israeli Dilemma. Syracuse University Press.
  • Kurtulus, E. N. (2007). The Notion of a “pre-emptive War:” the Six Day War Revisited. The Middle East Journal, 61(2), 220-238.
  • Laffin, J. (1973). Fedayeen: The Arab-Israeli Dilemma. Free Pr.
  • Laffin, J. (1982). The Arab Armies in the Middle East Wars 1948-1973. Osprey Publishing.
  • Laqueur, W. (1974). Confrontation: The Middle East and World Politics (p. 51). NY: Bantam Books.
  • League of Nations Treaty Series, vol. 181.
  • Lorch, N. (1976). One long war: Arab versus Jew since 1920. Jerusalem: Herzl Pr.
  • Mangold, P. (2013). Superpower Intervention in the Middle East (Routledge Revivals). Routledge.
  • Marr, P. (2018). The modern history of Iraq. Routledge.
  • McNamara, R. (2004). Britain, Nasser and the balance of power in the Middle East, 1952-1977: from the Eygptian revolution to the six day war. Routledge.
  • Mearsheimer, J. J., & Walt, S. M. (2003). An unnecessary war. Foreign Policy, (Vol. 134).
  • Moore, J. N. (Ed.). (2014). The Arab-Israeli Conflict, Volume IV, Part II: The Difficult Search for Peace (1975-1988) (Vol. 139). Princeton University Press.
  • Morris, B. (2008). 1948: a history of the first Arab-Israeli war. Yale University Press.
  • Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, A. (1988). The Great Powers in the Middle East, 1919-1939. U. Dann (Ed.). New York: Holmes & Meier.
  • Mutlu, S. (2011). The Economic Cost of Civil Conflict inTurkey. Middle Eastern Studies, 47(1), 63-80.
  • Nordeen, L. O., & Nicolle, D. (1996). Phoenix over the Nile: a history of Egyptian air power, 1932-1994. Columbia: Smithsonian Inst Pr.
  • Okur, M. A. (2009). Emperyalizmin Ortadoğu Tecrübesinden Bir Kesit: Suriye’de Fransız Mandası. Bilig, Kış, 48.
  • Okyar, O. (1979). Development background of the Turkish economy, 1923–1973. International Journal of Middle East Studies, 10(3), 325-344.
  • Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), (2011), Monthly Oil Market Report December 2010. OPEC.
  • Owen, R. (2013). State, Power and Politics in the Making of the Modern Middle East. London: Routledge.
  • Önder, İ. (1970). “Türkiye Kamu Harcamaları”, İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 30 (4), 185-228. Erişim adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/iuifm/issue/844/9366. (Erişim tarihi: 20.01.2019)
  • Pappe, I. (1988). Britain and the Arab-Israeli conflict, 1948-51. Springer.
  • Podeh, E. (1995). The quest for hegemony in the Arab world: The struggle over the Baghdad Pact (Vol. 52). Brill.
  • Ponížilová, M. (2016). The Impact of Regional Powers' Competition on the Middle East Regional Order. Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, 10(3).
  • Segal, D. (1988). The Iran-Iraq war: a military analysis. Foreign Affairs, 66(5), 946-963.
  • Sirrs, O. L. (2007). Nasser and the Missile Age in the Middle East. New York: Routledge.
  • Spiegel, S. L. (1986). The Other Arab-Israeli Conflict: Making America's Middle East Policy, from Truman to Reagan (Vol. 1). University of Chicago Press.
  • Stebbins, R. P., & Adam, E. P. (Eds.). (1976). American Foreign Relations: A Documentary Record. 1973. New York University Press.
  • Stephen, W. (1987). The Origins of Alliances. New York: Ithaca.
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Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Furkan Halit Yolcu

Publication Date June 15, 2020
Submission Date November 1, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2020 Issue: 43

Cite

APA Yolcu, F. H. (2020). Ortadoğu’da Askeri Denge ve İttifaklar: I. Dünya Savaşı’ndan Yeni Dünya Düzeni’ne Bir Süreç Analizi (1918-2010). Selçuk Üniversitesi Edebiyat Fakültesi Dergisi(43), 467-496. https://doi.org/10.21497/sefad.756111

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