Forecasting of Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Benin Republic Using ARIMA Model
Abstract
Rice is one of the staple foods in the Benin Republic. Annual rice consumption is increasing faster than annual rice production. That is why Benin is not yet self-sufficient in rice production. To meet the local demand, huge quantities of rice are imported. For country planning, forecasting is the main tool for predicting rice variables. This paper describes an empirical study that used a time series modeling approach (Box-Jenkins’ ARIMA model) to forecast rice production, rice consumption, rice importation, rice exportation and finally rice self-sufficiency in Benin. Based on ARIMA model, the rice self-sufficiency rate in Benin is forecasted to be 47%, 56%, 58%, 59% and 68% respectively in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. The forecasts would be helpful for the policy makers to foresee ahead of time the future requirements of rice production, adopt appropriate measures to develop rice sector for effective rice self-sufficiency and to reduce rice importation.
Keywords
Details
Primary Language
English
Subjects
Agricultural Policy
Journal Section
Research Article
Publication Date
December 15, 2019
Submission Date
May 2, 2019
Acceptance Date
-
Published in Issue
Year 2019 Volume: 33 Number: 3
APA
Akouegnonhou, O., & Demirbaş, N. (2019). Forecasting of Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Benin Republic Using ARIMA Model. Selcuk Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences, 33(3), 204-214. https://izlik.org/JA34LC84DT
AMA
1.Akouegnonhou O, Demirbaş N. Forecasting of Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Benin Republic Using ARIMA Model. Selcuk J Agr Food Sci. 2019;33(3):204-214. https://izlik.org/JA34LC84DT
Chicago
Akouegnonhou, Oscar, and Nevin Demirbaş. 2019. “Forecasting of Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Benin Republic Using ARIMA Model”. Selcuk Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences 33 (3): 204-14. https://izlik.org/JA34LC84DT.
EndNote
Akouegnonhou O, Demirbaş N (December 1, 2019) Forecasting of Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Benin Republic Using ARIMA Model. Selcuk Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences 33 3 204–214.
IEEE
[1]O. Akouegnonhou and N. Demirbaş, “Forecasting of Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Benin Republic Using ARIMA Model”, Selcuk J Agr Food Sci, vol. 33, no. 3, pp. 204–214, Dec. 2019, [Online]. Available: https://izlik.org/JA34LC84DT
ISNAD
Akouegnonhou, Oscar - Demirbaş, Nevin. “Forecasting of Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Benin Republic Using ARIMA Model”. Selcuk Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences 33/3 (December 1, 2019): 204-214. https://izlik.org/JA34LC84DT.
JAMA
1.Akouegnonhou O, Demirbaş N. Forecasting of Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Benin Republic Using ARIMA Model. Selcuk J Agr Food Sci. 2019;33:204–214.
MLA
Akouegnonhou, Oscar, and Nevin Demirbaş. “Forecasting of Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Benin Republic Using ARIMA Model”. Selcuk Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences, vol. 33, no. 3, Dec. 2019, pp. 204-1, https://izlik.org/JA34LC84DT.
Vancouver
1.Oscar Akouegnonhou, Nevin Demirbaş. Forecasting of Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Benin Republic Using ARIMA Model. Selcuk J Agr Food Sci [Internet]. 2019 Dec. 1;33(3):204-1. Available from: https://izlik.org/JA34LC84DT