Forecasting of Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Benin Republic Using ARIMA Model
Öz
Rice is one of the staple foods in the Benin Republic. Annual rice consumption is increasing faster than annual rice production. That is why Benin is not yet self-sufficient in rice production. To meet the local demand, huge quantities of rice are imported. For country planning, forecasting is the main tool for predicting rice variables. This paper describes an empirical study that used a time series modeling approach (Box-Jenkins’ ARIMA model) to forecast rice production, rice consumption, rice importation, rice exportation and finally rice self-sufficiency in Benin. Based on ARIMA model, the rice self-sufficiency rate in Benin is forecasted to be 47%, 56%, 58%, 59% and 68% respectively in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. The forecasts would be helpful for the policy makers to foresee ahead of time the future requirements of rice production, adopt appropriate measures to develop rice sector for effective rice self-sufficiency and to reduce rice importation.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Ayrıntılar
Birincil Dil
İngilizce
Konular
Tarım Politikaları
Bölüm
Araştırma Makalesi
Yayımlanma Tarihi
15 Aralık 2019
Gönderilme Tarihi
2 Mayıs 2019
Kabul Tarihi
-
Yayımlandığı Sayı
Yıl 2019 Cilt: 33 Sayı: 3
APA
Akouegnonhou, O., & Demirbaş, N. (2019). Forecasting of Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Benin Republic Using ARIMA Model. Selcuk Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences, 33(3), 204-214. https://izlik.org/JA34LC84DT
AMA
1.Akouegnonhou O, Demirbaş N. Forecasting of Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Benin Republic Using ARIMA Model. Selcuk J Agr Food Sci. 2019;33(3):204-214. https://izlik.org/JA34LC84DT
Chicago
Akouegnonhou, Oscar, ve Nevin Demirbaş. 2019. “Forecasting of Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Benin Republic Using ARIMA Model”. Selcuk Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences 33 (3): 204-14. https://izlik.org/JA34LC84DT.
EndNote
Akouegnonhou O, Demirbaş N (01 Aralık 2019) Forecasting of Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Benin Republic Using ARIMA Model. Selcuk Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences 33 3 204–214.
IEEE
[1]O. Akouegnonhou ve N. Demirbaş, “Forecasting of Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Benin Republic Using ARIMA Model”, Selcuk J Agr Food Sci, c. 33, sy 3, ss. 204–214, Ara. 2019, [çevrimiçi]. Erişim adresi: https://izlik.org/JA34LC84DT
ISNAD
Akouegnonhou, Oscar - Demirbaş, Nevin. “Forecasting of Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Benin Republic Using ARIMA Model”. Selcuk Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences 33/3 (01 Aralık 2019): 204-214. https://izlik.org/JA34LC84DT.
JAMA
1.Akouegnonhou O, Demirbaş N. Forecasting of Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Benin Republic Using ARIMA Model. Selcuk J Agr Food Sci. 2019;33:204–214.
MLA
Akouegnonhou, Oscar, ve Nevin Demirbaş. “Forecasting of Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Benin Republic Using ARIMA Model”. Selcuk Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences, c. 33, sy 3, Aralık 2019, ss. 204-1, https://izlik.org/JA34LC84DT.
Vancouver
1.Oscar Akouegnonhou, Nevin Demirbaş. Forecasting of Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Benin Republic Using ARIMA Model. Selcuk J Agr Food Sci [Internet]. 01 Aralık 2019;33(3):204-1. Erişim adresi: https://izlik.org/JA34LC84DT