Tourist Inflows; Accommodation Prices and Exchange Rates: A Causality Analysis for Turkey

Year 2019, Volume: 22 Issue: 1, 11 - 24, 30.04.2019

Sertaç Hopoğlu Hakan Eryüzlü

https://doi.org/10.29249/selcuksbmyd.466497

Cited By: 1

Abstract

The study
investigates the effects of accommodation prices and exchange rates on the
number of tourists visiting Turkey for the period 2005:1-2018:6. Monthly
accommodation price index and monthly average nominal exchange rates of the Turkish
Lira against the currencies of important source countries are used as
independent variables. Hacker-Hatemi-J (2006) bootstrap causality test and
asymmetric causality approach developed by Hatemi-J (2012) are used for the
eresearch. Findings reveal a symmetric causality relationship from
accommodation prices to the number of tourists at 10% significance level. There
is also a symmetric causality relationships running from the number of visitors
and to each of Euro and Pound exchange rates. The only asymmetric causality
relationship found runs from the negative shocks in number of visitors to
positive shocks in Pound exchange rates. Results implicate careful pricing of
accommodation services and inclusion of Pound/TL rate in marketing strategies
for potential tourists from the UK in order for Turkey to have a sustainable
tourist inflow. 

Keywords

Turkey, Tourist Inflow, Accommodation Prices, Exchange Rates

Turist Akışı, Konaklama Fiyatları ve Döviz Kurları: Türkiye İçin Bir Nedensellik Analizi

Abstract

Çalışmada konaklama fiyatları ve döviz kurlarının Türkiye’yi
ziyaret eden turist sayılarına etkisi 2005:1-2018:6 dönemi için
araştırılmıştır. Bağımsız değişkenler olarak aylık konaklama fiyat endeksi ve
Türk Lirası’nın Türkiye’nin önemli kaynak pazarlarının paralarına karşı aylık
ortalama nominal kurları kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada yöntem olarak Hacker &
Hatemi-J (2006) bootstrap nedensellik testi ve seriler arasında asimetrik nedensellik analizleri için Hatemi-J(2012)  bootstrap asimetrik nedensellik testi
uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre
konaklama fiyatları ve Türkiye’ye olan turist akışı arasında %10 anlamlılık
düzeyinde simetrik bir nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Ziyaretçi sayılarından Euro
ve Pound kurlarına doğru simetrik nedensellik bulunmuştur. Çalışmada sadece
ziyaretçi sayısındaki negatif şoklar ve Pound kurundaki pozitif şoklar arasında
asimetrik nedensellik ilişkisi elde edilmiştir. Bu bulgulara göre Türkiye’ye
olan turist akışının sürdürülebilir olması için konaklama fiyatlarına dikkat
edilmesi ve özellikle Birleşik Krallık’tan gelecek potansiyel turistler için
pazarlama stratejileri üretirken Pound/TL kurunun dikkate alınması
gerekmektedir. 

Keywords

Türkiye, Turist akışı, Konaklama fiyatları, Döviz kurları

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