Makroekonomik Göstergelerin Borç Faiz Oranları Üzerindeki Etkileri: BRICST, MINT ve Kırılgan Beşli Ülkelerinden Kanıtlar

Year 2022, Volume: 25 Issue: 2, 682 - 693, 30.11.2022

Özge Korkmaz Mustafa Tevfik Kartal Fatih Ayhan

https://doi.org/10.29249/selcuksbmyd.1168428

Abstract

Bu çalışma, faiz oranlarının ekonomik büyüme açısından önemini göz önünde bulundurarak, önde gelen gelişmekte olan ülkelerde makroekonomik göstergelerin borç verme faiz oranları üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmektedir. Bu kapsamda, borç verme faiz oranı bağımlı değişken olarak kabul edilmekte; temel makroekonomik göstergeler olan bağımsız değişkenler arasında döviz kurları, gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla (GSYİH) ve enflasyon yer almakta; 1990'dan 2019'a kadar olan yıllık veriler kullanılmış ve panel veri analizi uygulanmıştır. Ampirik analiz sonuçlarına göre, (i) döviz kurları, GSYİH ve enflasyonun panel düzeyinde borç verme faiz oranları üzerinde önemli bir etkiye sahiptir; (ii) bu makroekonomik göstergelerin önemi ülke düzeyinde farklılık göstermektedir; (iii) GSYİH, hem panel hem de ülke düzeyinde borç verme faiz oranları üzerinde en etkili faktördür. Analiz sonuçları, makroekonomik faktörlerin borç verme faiz oranları üzerindeki etkilerini vurgulamaktadır. Bu nedenle, ekonomik büyümenin düşük seviyeli borç verme faiz oranları ile desteklenebilmesi için, makroekonomik göstergelerin faiz oranları üzerindeki olumsuz etkilerini azaltacak uygun politikaların uygulanması gerekmektedir. Bu nedenle, gelişmekte olan ülkeler düşük seviyeli borç verme faiz oranlarından yararlanabilirler.

Keywords

Borçlanma Faiz Oranı, Makroekonomik Faktörler, Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler, Panel Data

Supporting Institution

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Project Number

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Thanks

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The Effects of Macroeconomic Indicators on Lending Interest Rates: Evidence from BRICST, MINT, and Fragile Five Countries

Abstract

This study analyzes the effects of the macroeconomic indicators on the lending interest rates in the leading emerging countries by considering the significance of the interest rates for economic growth since high-level interest rates decrease economic growth and volatile interest rates deteriorate economic stability. In this context, the lending interest rate is considered as the dependent variable; foreign exchange (FX) rates, gross domestic product (GDP), and inflation are included as the independent variables that are the main macroeconomic indicators; annual data from 1990 to 2019 are used, and the panel data analysis is applied. The empirical analysis results reveal that (i) FX rates, GDP, and inflation have a significant effect on the lending interest rates at the panel level; (ii) the significance of these macroeconomic indicators vary at the country level; (iii) GDP is the most influential factor on the lending interest rates at both panel and the country level. The analysis results underline the effects of macroeconomic factors on the lending interest rates. Therefore, countries should apply appropriate policies to lessen the adverse effects of the macroeconomic indicators on the interest rates so that economic growth can be supported by low-level lending interest rates. Hence, emerging countries can benefit from low-level lending interest rates.

Keywords

Lending Interest Rate, Macroeconomic Factors, Emerging Countries, Panel Data

Project Number

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