Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımlarının Gelir Eşitsizliği Perspektifinden Analizi

Abstract

Doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının (DYY) üretimi, istihdamı, sermaye ve döviz gelirlerini artırmak gibi birçok kazanç sağladığı bilinmektedir. Bu sebeple doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının iktisadi göstergeler üzerine etkisini araştıran yaygın bir literatür bulunmaktadır. Ülkelere gelen yabancı yatırımların faydalarının adaletli bir iktisadi bölüşüme katkı sağlayıp sağlamadığı ele alınan konulardan biridir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de DYY girişlerinin gelir dağılımı eşitsizliği üzerine etkileri incelenmiştir. 1970-2015 periyodu için ARDL metodu ile bağımlı değişken Gini katsayısı, bağımsız değişken DYY ve kontrol değişkenler büyüme, ticaret ve enflasyon olarak ele alınmıştır. Analizlere birim kök testleriyle başlanmıştır. Serilerin aynı derecede durağan olmamaları sebebiyle ARDL Sınır Testi’ne başvurulmuştur. Sınır testi sonuçları seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olduğunu göstermiştir. Uzun dönem katsayı tahmini DYY girişleri ve enflasyonunun gelir eşitsizliğini artırdığını göstermiştir. Büyüme ve ticaret değişkenlerinin ise istatistiki olarak anlamsız olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Daha sonra hata düzeltme modeli tahmin edilmiştir. Modeldeki hata düzeltme katsayısının negatif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Yani kısa dönemde meydana gelen şokların neden olduğu dengeden sapmalar ya da dalgalanmalar yeniden denge düzeyine kavuşmaktadır.

Keywords

• ARDL Sınır Testi
• Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaya Yatırımları
• Gelir Eşitsizliği

Income Distribution Analysis from the Perspective of Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey

Abstract

It is known that foreign direct investment (FDI) provides many benefits such as production, employment, and increasing capital and foreign exchange revenues. For this reason, there is a large literature investigating the effect of foreign direct investment on economic indicators. Whether the benefits of foreign investment inflows contribute to a fair economic distribution is one of the issues discussed. This study examined the effects on income inequality of FDI inflows in Turkey. For the period 1970-2015, dependent variable Gini coefficient, independent variable FDI and control variables were discussed as growth, trade and inflation with ARDL method. The analysis started with unit root tests. As the series are not equally stable, ARDL Bound Test was applied. Bound test results showed that there is a cointegration relationship between the series. Long-term coefficient estimation showed that FDI inflows and inflation increased income inequality. Growth and trade variables were found to be statistically insignificant. Then the error correction model was estimated. It was observed that the error correction coefficient in the model was negative and statistically significant. In other words, deviations or fluctuations from the equilibrium caused by shocks occurring in the short-term reach the equilibrium level again.

Keywords

• ARDL Bound Test
• Foreign Direct Investment
• Income Distribution
• Gini Coefficient

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