Speculative Behavior in Technology Stocks-Related Investment: Implications For Japan's Financial Stability

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 1 Ocak 2015'ten 31 Temmuz 2024'e kadar olan dönemde yapay zeka ile ilgili yatırımlardaki spekülatif davranışın Japonya'nın finansal piyasaları üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktadır. GSADF testi ve dalgacık tutarlılık analizi kullanılarak elde edilen bulgular, özellikle 2020-2021 döneminde YZ ile ilgili hisse senetlerinde çoklu spekülatif balonları ve bunların Japonya'nın TOPIX ITC endeksi ile güçlü senkronizasyonunu ortaya koymaktadır. Düzenleyici reformlara ve geçmiş krizlerden alınan derslere rağmen, YZ ile ilgili yatırımlardaki küresel eğilimler genellikle yerel piyasalarda değişikliklere yol açtığından, Japonya'nın finansal sistemi dış spekülatif baskılara karşı savunmasız kalmaktadır. Bu sonuçlar, küresel spekülatif davranışlardan kaynaklanan riskleri yönetmek için sınır ötesi düzenleyici işbirliğine ve sektöre özgü izleme çerçevelerine duyulan ihtiyacı vurgulamaktadır. Küresel teknolojik inovasyon ve yerel finansal istikrarın kesişimini ele alan bu çalışma, politika yapıcılar için uygulanabilir bilgiler sunmakta ve küresel spekülatif eğilimlerin ulusal finansal ekosistemleri nasıl şekillendirdiğine dair daha geniş bir anlayışa katkıda bulunmaktadır.

Keywords

• Yapay Zeka Yatırımları
• Finansal Balonlar
• Teknoloji Hisse Senetleri
• Dalgacık Tutarlılığı
• GSADF Testi
• Piyasa Spekülasyonu

SPECULATIVE BEHAVIOR IN TECHNOLOGY STOCKS-RELATED INVESTMENTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR JAPAN’S FINANCIAL STABILITY

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of speculative behavior in AI-related investments on Japan’s financial markets during the period from January 1, 2015, to July 31, 2024. Employing the GSADF test and wavelet coherence analysis, the findings reveal multiple speculative bubbles in AI-related stocks, particularly during 2020-2021, and their strong synchronization with Japan’s TOPIX ITC index. Despite regulatory reforms and lessons from past crises, Japan’s financial system remains vulnerable to external speculative pressures, as global trends in AI-related investments often lead to changes in local markets. These results emphasize the need for cross-border regulatory cooperation and sector-specific monitoring frameworks to manage risks stemming from global speculative behaviors. By addressing the intersection of global technological innovation and local financial stability, this study offers actionable insights for policymakers and contributes to the broader understanding of how global speculative trends shape national financial ecosystems.

Keywords

• AI Investments
• Financial Bubbles
• Technology Stocks
• Wavelet Coherence
• GSADF Test
• Market Speculation

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