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İşsizlik ve Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Türk İmalat Sanayi Örneği

Year 2019, , 133 - 149, 31.01.2019
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.08

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de 2005:Q1-2017:Q4 dönemi için imalat sektöründeki büyüme ile işsizlik oranı arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönem ilişkiyi araştırmaktır. Bu bağlamda, imalat sanayi ve işsizlik oranı arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki için Bayer ve Hanck (2012) tarafından geliştirilen birleştirilmiş koentegrasyon yaklaşımından yararlanılmıştır. İlgili değişkenler arasındaki kısa dönemli ilişkinin incelenmesi için Hacker ve Hatemi-J (2006) simetrik ve Hatemi-J (2012) asimetrik nedensellik testleri kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular serilerin eşbütünleşik olmadığını göstermiştir. Bir diğer ifadeyle, işsizlik oranı ve imalat sanayi büyümesi arasında uzun dönemde ilişki yoktur. Bunun yanısıra, değişkenler arasında kısa dönem simetrik ilişki de tespit edilememiştir. Asimetrik nedensellik sonuçlarına göre ise imalat sektöründen işsizlik oranına doğru herhangi bir nedensellik gözlenemezken, işzilik oranındaki negatif şokların imalat sanayindeki negatif şokların nedeni olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular ışığında Türkiye’de imalat sektörü için istihdam yaratmayan büyüme olgusunun var olduğu söylenebilir.

References

  • Aksoy, E. 2013. Relationships between Employment and Growth from Industrial Perspective by Considering Employment Incentives: The Case of Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3 (1), pp. 74-86.
  • Anderton, R., Aranki, T., Bonthuis, B. and Jarvis, V. 2014. Disaggregating Okun’s Law Decomposing the Impact of the Expenditure Components of GDP on Euro Area Unemployment. European Central Bank Working Paper Series. Pp. 1-26.
  • Apap, W. and Gravino, D. 2014. Okun’s Law in Malta: Lessons Learnt from a Sectoral Perspective. Ministry for Finance Working Paper Series, pp. 1-25.
  • Arı, A. 2016. An Analysis of the Relationship between the Economic Growth and Unemployment in Turkey: A New Cointegration Test. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4 (2), pp. 57-67.
  • Banerjee, A., Dolado, J. and Mestre, R. 1998. Error-Correction Mechanism Test for Cointegration in a Single-Equation Framework. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19 (3), pp. 285-290.
  • Barışık, S., Çevik, E.I. and Kırcı Çevik, N. 2010. Okun’s Law, Asymmetry Relationship and Jobless Growth in Turkey: Markov-Switching Approach. Maliye Dergisi, 159, pp. 88-102.
  • Bayer, C. and Hanck, C. 2012. Combining Non-Cointegration Tests. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 34 (1), pp. 83-95.
  • Boswijk, HP. 1994. Testing for an Unstable Root in Conditional and Structural Error Correction Models. Journal of Econometrics, 63 (1), pp. 37-60.
  • Ceylan, S. and Şahin, B. Y. 2010. Asymmetry in the Relationship between Unemployment and Economic Growth. Doğuş University Journal, 11 (2), 157-165.
  • Demirgil, H. 2010. An Empirical Investigation of The Efficacy of Okun’s Law on Turkey. International Journal of Alanya Faculty of Business, 2 (2), pp. 139-151.
  • Dickey, D. and Fuller, W. 1981. Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49 (4), pp. 1057-1072.
  • Efron, B. 1979. Bootstrap Methods: Another Look at the Jackknife. The Annals of Statistics, 7 (1), pp. 1-26.
  • Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. 1987. Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55 (2), pp. 251–276.
  • Govindaraju, V.G.R. C. and Tang, C. F. 2013. The Dynamic Links between CO2 Emissions, Economic Growth and Coal Consumption in China and India. Applied Energy, 104 (2013), pp. 310-318.
  • Hacker, R. S. and Hatemi-J, A. 2006. Tests for Causality between Integrated Variables Using Asymptotic and Bootstrap Distributions: Theory and Application. Applied Economics, 38 (13), pp. 1489-1500.
  • Hatemi-J, A. 2003. A New Method to Choose Optimal Lag Order in Stable and Unstable VAR Models. Applied Economics Letters, 10 (3), pp.135-137.
  • Hatemi-J, A. 2012. Asymmetric Generalized Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition with an Application. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 31700, pp.1-8.
  • Huang, H. C. and Lin, S. C. 2006. A Flexible Nonlinear Inference to Okun's Relationship. Applied Economics Letter, 13, pp. 325-331.
  • Javeid, U. 2012. Validity of Okun’s Law Empirical Evidence from Pakistan (1981-2005). http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:525872/FULLTEXT01.pdf. Accessed 3 January 2017.
  • Jardin, M. and Stephan, G. 2012. How Okun's Law is Non-Linear in Europe: A Semi-Parametric Approach. http://economics.soc.uoc.gr/macro/docs/Year/2012/papers/paper_1_32.pdf. Accessed 11 April 2018.
  • Johansen, S. 1988. Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12 (2-3), pp. 231-254.
  • Kanca, O. C. 2012. Türkiye’de İşsizlik ve İktisadi Büyüme Arasındaki Nedenselliğin Ampirik bir Analizi. Journal of Çukurova University Institute of Social Sciences, 21 (2), pp. 1-18.
  • Kreishan, F. 2011. Economic Growth and Unemployment: An Empirical Analysis. Journal of Social Sciences, 7 (2), pp. 228-231.
  • Lee, J. 2000. The Robustness of Okun’s Law: Evidence from OECD Countries. Journal of Macroeconomics, 22 (2), pp. 331–356.
  • Moosa, I. A. 1999. Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment, and Okun’s Coefficient a Structural Time Series Approach. International Review of Economics & Finance, 8 (1999), pp. 293-304.
  • Moosa, I. A. 2008. Economic Growth and Unemployment in Arab Countries: Is Okun’s Law Valid? Proceedings of the International Conference on the Unemployment Crisis in the Arab Countries, Mar. 17-18, Cairo- Egypt, pp. 1-19.
  • Neftçi, S. N. 1984. Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric Over The Business Cycle? Journal of Political Economy, 92 (2), pp. 307-328.
  • Okun, A.M. (1962), Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance, Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, American Statistical Association.
  • Pesliakaite, J. 2015. The Impact of GDP Structure on the Stability of Okun’s Law in Lithuania. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 69190, pp. 1-10.
  • Phillips, P., & Peron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regressions. Biometrika, 75.2, 335-346.
  • Prachowny, M. F. J. 1993. Okun’s Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates. Review of Economic and Statistics, 75 (2), pp. 331–336.
  • Sodipe, O. A. and Ogunrinola, O. I. 2011. Employment and Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 2 (11), pp. 232-239.
  • Sögner, L. and Stiassny, A. 2002. An analysis on the structural stability of Okun’s Law- a Cross-Country Study. Applied Economics, 14, pp. 1775-1787.
  • Tanrıöver, B. and Biçer, B. 2015. Dynamics of Jobless Growth in Turkey within Framework Okun’s Law and Stochastic Trend Approach. EY International Congress on Economics II Europe and Global Economic Rebalancing, Ankara-November 5-6, pp. 1-20.
  • Toda, H. Y. and Yamamoto, T. 1995. Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregression with Possibly Integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66 (1), pp. 225-250.
  • Viren, M. 2001. The Okun Curve is Non-Linear. Economics Letter, 70 (2), pp. 253-257.

The Relationship between Unemployment and Growth: Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry

Year 2019, , 133 - 149, 31.01.2019
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.08

Abstract

The aim of the study is to examine the short and the long-run relationship between the unemployment and the manufacturing industry in Turkey for the period between 2005:Q and 2017:Q4. For this purpose, firstly the combined cointegration technique, which is developed by Bayer and Hanck (2012), is applied to reveal the long-run relationship. For the short run relationship, on the other hand, the symmetric and the asymmetric causal relationships among the variables are investigated using the Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) and Hatemi-J (2012) methods. The findings show that the variables are not cointegrated. In other words, there is no long-run relationship between the unemployment rate and the manufacturing industry growth. According to the symmetric causality test of Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006), no causality is detected. However, Hatemi-J (20012) asymmetric causality test suggests that there is only one unidirectional causality. The direction of the causality is from the negative shocks of the unemployment rate to the negative shocks of the manufacturing industry. The results support the jobless growth phenomenon for the manufacturing sector in Turkey.

References

  • Aksoy, E. 2013. Relationships between Employment and Growth from Industrial Perspective by Considering Employment Incentives: The Case of Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3 (1), pp. 74-86.
  • Anderton, R., Aranki, T., Bonthuis, B. and Jarvis, V. 2014. Disaggregating Okun’s Law Decomposing the Impact of the Expenditure Components of GDP on Euro Area Unemployment. European Central Bank Working Paper Series. Pp. 1-26.
  • Apap, W. and Gravino, D. 2014. Okun’s Law in Malta: Lessons Learnt from a Sectoral Perspective. Ministry for Finance Working Paper Series, pp. 1-25.
  • Arı, A. 2016. An Analysis of the Relationship between the Economic Growth and Unemployment in Turkey: A New Cointegration Test. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4 (2), pp. 57-67.
  • Banerjee, A., Dolado, J. and Mestre, R. 1998. Error-Correction Mechanism Test for Cointegration in a Single-Equation Framework. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19 (3), pp. 285-290.
  • Barışık, S., Çevik, E.I. and Kırcı Çevik, N. 2010. Okun’s Law, Asymmetry Relationship and Jobless Growth in Turkey: Markov-Switching Approach. Maliye Dergisi, 159, pp. 88-102.
  • Bayer, C. and Hanck, C. 2012. Combining Non-Cointegration Tests. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 34 (1), pp. 83-95.
  • Boswijk, HP. 1994. Testing for an Unstable Root in Conditional and Structural Error Correction Models. Journal of Econometrics, 63 (1), pp. 37-60.
  • Ceylan, S. and Şahin, B. Y. 2010. Asymmetry in the Relationship between Unemployment and Economic Growth. Doğuş University Journal, 11 (2), 157-165.
  • Demirgil, H. 2010. An Empirical Investigation of The Efficacy of Okun’s Law on Turkey. International Journal of Alanya Faculty of Business, 2 (2), pp. 139-151.
  • Dickey, D. and Fuller, W. 1981. Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49 (4), pp. 1057-1072.
  • Efron, B. 1979. Bootstrap Methods: Another Look at the Jackknife. The Annals of Statistics, 7 (1), pp. 1-26.
  • Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. 1987. Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55 (2), pp. 251–276.
  • Govindaraju, V.G.R. C. and Tang, C. F. 2013. The Dynamic Links between CO2 Emissions, Economic Growth and Coal Consumption in China and India. Applied Energy, 104 (2013), pp. 310-318.
  • Hacker, R. S. and Hatemi-J, A. 2006. Tests for Causality between Integrated Variables Using Asymptotic and Bootstrap Distributions: Theory and Application. Applied Economics, 38 (13), pp. 1489-1500.
  • Hatemi-J, A. 2003. A New Method to Choose Optimal Lag Order in Stable and Unstable VAR Models. Applied Economics Letters, 10 (3), pp.135-137.
  • Hatemi-J, A. 2012. Asymmetric Generalized Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition with an Application. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 31700, pp.1-8.
  • Huang, H. C. and Lin, S. C. 2006. A Flexible Nonlinear Inference to Okun's Relationship. Applied Economics Letter, 13, pp. 325-331.
  • Javeid, U. 2012. Validity of Okun’s Law Empirical Evidence from Pakistan (1981-2005). http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:525872/FULLTEXT01.pdf. Accessed 3 January 2017.
  • Jardin, M. and Stephan, G. 2012. How Okun's Law is Non-Linear in Europe: A Semi-Parametric Approach. http://economics.soc.uoc.gr/macro/docs/Year/2012/papers/paper_1_32.pdf. Accessed 11 April 2018.
  • Johansen, S. 1988. Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12 (2-3), pp. 231-254.
  • Kanca, O. C. 2012. Türkiye’de İşsizlik ve İktisadi Büyüme Arasındaki Nedenselliğin Ampirik bir Analizi. Journal of Çukurova University Institute of Social Sciences, 21 (2), pp. 1-18.
  • Kreishan, F. 2011. Economic Growth and Unemployment: An Empirical Analysis. Journal of Social Sciences, 7 (2), pp. 228-231.
  • Lee, J. 2000. The Robustness of Okun’s Law: Evidence from OECD Countries. Journal of Macroeconomics, 22 (2), pp. 331–356.
  • Moosa, I. A. 1999. Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment, and Okun’s Coefficient a Structural Time Series Approach. International Review of Economics & Finance, 8 (1999), pp. 293-304.
  • Moosa, I. A. 2008. Economic Growth and Unemployment in Arab Countries: Is Okun’s Law Valid? Proceedings of the International Conference on the Unemployment Crisis in the Arab Countries, Mar. 17-18, Cairo- Egypt, pp. 1-19.
  • Neftçi, S. N. 1984. Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric Over The Business Cycle? Journal of Political Economy, 92 (2), pp. 307-328.
  • Okun, A.M. (1962), Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance, Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, American Statistical Association.
  • Pesliakaite, J. 2015. The Impact of GDP Structure on the Stability of Okun’s Law in Lithuania. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 69190, pp. 1-10.
  • Phillips, P., & Peron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regressions. Biometrika, 75.2, 335-346.
  • Prachowny, M. F. J. 1993. Okun’s Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates. Review of Economic and Statistics, 75 (2), pp. 331–336.
  • Sodipe, O. A. and Ogunrinola, O. I. 2011. Employment and Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 2 (11), pp. 232-239.
  • Sögner, L. and Stiassny, A. 2002. An analysis on the structural stability of Okun’s Law- a Cross-Country Study. Applied Economics, 14, pp. 1775-1787.
  • Tanrıöver, B. and Biçer, B. 2015. Dynamics of Jobless Growth in Turkey within Framework Okun’s Law and Stochastic Trend Approach. EY International Congress on Economics II Europe and Global Economic Rebalancing, Ankara-November 5-6, pp. 1-20.
  • Toda, H. Y. and Yamamoto, T. 1995. Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregression with Possibly Integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66 (1), pp. 225-250.
  • Viren, M. 2001. The Okun Curve is Non-Linear. Economics Letter, 70 (2), pp. 253-257.
There are 36 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Özge Barış-tüzemen 0000-0001-7692-5032

Samet Tüzemen 0000-0003-1465-4489

Publication Date January 31, 2019
Submission Date May 21, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2019

Cite

APA Barış-tüzemen, Ö., & Tüzemen, S. (2019). The Relationship between Unemployment and Growth: Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry. Sosyoekonomi, 27(39), 133-149. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.08
AMA Barış-tüzemen Ö, Tüzemen S. The Relationship between Unemployment and Growth: Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry. Sosyoekonomi. January 2019;27(39):133-149. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.08
Chicago Barış-tüzemen, Özge, and Samet Tüzemen. “The Relationship Between Unemployment and Growth: Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry”. Sosyoekonomi 27, no. 39 (January 2019): 133-49. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.08.
EndNote Barış-tüzemen Ö, Tüzemen S (January 1, 2019) The Relationship between Unemployment and Growth: Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry. Sosyoekonomi 27 39 133–149.
IEEE Ö. Barış-tüzemen and S. Tüzemen, “The Relationship between Unemployment and Growth: Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry”, Sosyoekonomi, vol. 27, no. 39, pp. 133–149, 2019, doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.08.
ISNAD Barış-tüzemen, Özge - Tüzemen, Samet. “The Relationship Between Unemployment and Growth: Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry”. Sosyoekonomi 27/39 (January 2019), 133-149. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.08.
JAMA Barış-tüzemen Ö, Tüzemen S. The Relationship between Unemployment and Growth: Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry. Sosyoekonomi. 2019;27:133–149.
MLA Barış-tüzemen, Özge and Samet Tüzemen. “The Relationship Between Unemployment and Growth: Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry”. Sosyoekonomi, vol. 27, no. 39, 2019, pp. 133-49, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.08.
Vancouver Barış-tüzemen Ö, Tüzemen S. The Relationship between Unemployment and Growth: Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry. Sosyoekonomi. 2019;27(39):133-49.