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Petrol Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Seçilmiş Petrol Zengini Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi

Year 2016, Volume: 24 Issue: 27, 85 - 102, 22.01.2016
https://doi.org/10.17233/se.01775

Abstract

Bu çalışma, seçilen 12 petrol zengini gelişmekte olan ülkede, petrol gelirlerinin ekonomik büyümeyi nasıl etkilediğini belirlemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Kişi başına reel gayri safi yurtiçi hâsıla ekonomik büyümeyi gösterirken, petrol gelirini temsilen ham petrol fiyatı ve ihracatı alınmıştır. Bu ilişkiyi etkilemesi beklenen reel efektif döviz kuru ve tüketici fiyat endeksi de diğer açıklayıcı değişkenler olarak modele eklenmiştir. Kaynak talihsizliği bulgusunu araştırmaya yönelik olarak 2000-2010 dönemi için panel veri regresyon analizi uygulanmıştır. Petrol gelirlerinin büyüme üzerine olan pozitif etkisinin oldukça düşük olması, ‘kaynak talihsizliği hipotezi’ni destekler niteliktedir. Genel sonuçlar, petrol kaynaklarının daha etkin kullanılmasına ve kaynak talihsizliğinin gelişim mekanizmalarının engellenmesine yönelik politikaların önemini ortaya koymaktadır.

References

  • Aditya, A. & R. Acharyya (2012), “Does What Countries Export Matter? The Asian and Latin American Experience”, Journal of Economic Development, 37(3): 47-74.
  • Alexeev, M. & R. Conrad (2009), “The Elusive Curse of Oil”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 91(3), 586-598.
  • Alkhathlan, K.A. (2013), “Contribution of Oil in Economic Growth of Saudi Arabia”, Applied Economics Letters, 20(4), 343-348.
  • Auty, R.M. (1993), Sustaining Development in Mineral Economies: The Resource Curse Thesis, London: Routledge
  • Baltagi, B.H. (2005), Econometrics Analysis of Panel Data, 3rd Edition, London: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Berument, M.H. & N. Ceylan & N. Dogan (2010), “The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected MENA Countries”, The Energy Journal, 31(1), 149-176.
  • Bhagwati, J.N. (1958), “Immiserizing Growth: A Geometric Note”, Review of Economic Studies, 25(3), 201-205.
  • Billon, L.P. (2001), “The Political Ecology of War: Natural Resources and Armed Conflicts”, Political Geograpy, 20(5), 561-584.
  • BP-British Petroleum (2014), Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, <http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview>, 18.11.2014.
  • Brunnschweiler, C.N. (2007), “Cursing the Blessing? Natural Resources Abundance, Institutions and Economic Growth”, World Development, 36(3), 399-419.
  • Callen, T. & R. Cherif & F. Hasanov & A. Hegazy & P. Khandelwa (2014), “Economic Diversification in the GCC: Past, Present, and Future”, IMF Staff Discussion Notes, SDN/14/12.
  • Caselli, F. (2006), “Power Struggles and The Natural Resource Curse”, LSE Research Working Paper, <http://personal.lse.ac.uk/casellif/papers/curse.pdf>, 09.12.2014.
  • Collier, P. & A. Hoeffler (2004), “Greed and Grievance in Civil War”, Oxford Economic Papers, 56 (2004): 563-595.
  • Corden, W.M. & P. Neary (1982), “Booming Sector and De-industrialisation in A Small Open Economy”, The Economic Journal, 92(368), 825-848.
  • Corden, W.M. (1984), “Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation”, Oxford Economic Papers, New Series, 36(3), 359-380.
  • Demiral, M. (2014), “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler, Sanayileşme ve İhracat: Türkiye İle Seçilmiş Ülke Karşılaştırmaları”, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Adana, Çukurova Üniversitesi SBE.
  • Feenstra, R.C. (2004), Advanced International Trade: Theory and Evidence, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Frankel, J.A. (2010), “The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey”, NBER Working Papers, No. 15836. <http://www.nber.org/papers/w15836>, 09.12.2014.
  • Ginsburg, N. (1957), “Natural Resources and Economic Development”, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 47(3), 197-212.
  • Graham, D. (1995), “Learning to Love The Dutch Disease: Evidence from The Mineral Economies”, World Development, 23(10), 1765-1779.
  • Guriev, S. & A. Plekhanov & K. Sonin (2009), “Development Based on Commodity Revenues”, EBRD Working Papers, No. 108, <http://www.ebrd.com>, 17.12.2014.
  • Gylfason, T. (2001), “Natural Resources, Education, and Economic Development”, European Economic Review, 45(4-6), 847-859.
  • Gylfason, T. & G. Zoega (2002), “Natural Resources and Economic Growth: The Role of Investment”, <http://www.econ.ku.dk/epru/files/wp/WEB-blaa-2001-02.pdf>, 23.11.2014.
  • Hsiao, C. (2003), Analysis of Panel Data, 2nd Edition, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Im, K.S. & M.H. Pesaran & Y. Shin (2003), “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 115(1): 53-74.
  • IMF-IFS (2014), International Monetary Fund-International Financial Statistics, <http://elibrary-data.imf.org/>, 18.11.2014.
  • Isham, J. & M. Woolcock & L. Pritchett & G. Busby (2005), “The Variety of Resources Experiences: Natural Resources Export Structures and the Political Economy of Economic Growth”, The World Bank Economic Review, 19(2), 141-174.
  • John, J.D. (2011), “Is There Really A Resource Curse? A Critical Survey of Theory and Evidence”, Global Governance, 17(2), 167-184.
  • Larsen, R.E. (2006), “Escaping the Resource Curse and the Dutch Disease? When and Why Norway Caught Up With and Forged Ahead of Its Neighbors”, American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 65(3): 605-640.
  • Lederman, D. & W.F. Maloney (2007), Natural Resources: Neither Curse Nor Destiny, Palo Alto & Stanford: Stanford University Press.
  • Levin, A. & C.F. Lin & C.S.J. Chu (2002), “Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties”, Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24.
  • Manzano, O. & R. Rigobon (2001), “Resources Curse or Debt Overhang?”, NBER Working Papers, No. 8390.
  • Mehrara, M. (2009), “Reconsidering the Resource Curse in Oil-Exporting Countries”, Energy Policy, 37(3), 1165-1169.
  • Neary, J.P. & S.V. Wijnbergen (1986), “Natural Resources and the Macroeconomy: A Theorical Framework”, UCD Centre for Economic Research, WP No. 36.
  • Ogunleye, E.K. (2008), “Natural Resources Abundance in Nigeria: From Dependence to Development”, Resources Policy, 33(3), 168-174.
  • Oomes, N. & K. Kalcheva (2007), “Diagnosing Dutch Disease: Does Russia Have The Symptoms?, IMF Working Papers, No. 7102, <https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2007/wp07102.pdf>, 13.11.2014.
  • Pessoa, A. (2008), Natural Resources and Institutions: The “Natural Resources Curse” Revisited, MPRA 8640, <http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8640/>, 07.12.2014.
  • Rodrik, D. (2005), “Policies for Economic Diversification”, CEPAL Review, 87, 7-23.
  • Prebisch, R. (1950), “The Economic Development of Latin America and Its Principal Problems”, Economic Bulletin for Latin America, Vol. 7, New York: United Nations.
  • Ross, M.L. (2001), “Does Oil Hinder Democracy?”, World Politics, 53 (2001), 325-361.
  • Sachs, J.D. & A.M. Warner (1995), “Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth”, NBER Working Papers, No. 5398.
  • Sachs, J.D. & A.M. Warner (1999), “The Big Push, Natural Resource Booms and Growth”, Journal of Development Economics, 59(1), 43-76.
  • Sachs, J.D. & A.M. Warner (2001), “Natural Resources and Economic Development: The Curse of Natural Resources”, European Economic Review, 45(4-6), 827-838.
  • Sala-i Martin, X. & A. Subramanian (2013), “Addressing the Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration from Nigeria”, Journal of African Economies, 22(4), 570-615.
  • Sarr, M. & E. Bulte & C. Meissner & S. Tim (2011), “Sovereign Dept and Resources Curse”, R.W. Kolb (ed.), Sovereign Debt: From Safety to Default, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, 51-62.
  • Singer, H.W. (1950), “The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries”, American Economic Review, 40(2), 473-485.
  • Torvik, R. (2002), ”Natural Resources, Rent Seeking and Welfare”, Journal of Development Economics, 67(2): 455–470.
  • US-EIA (2014), Energy Information Administration, <http://www.eia.gov/>, 18.11.2014.
  • Usui, N. (1997), “Dutch Disease and Policy Adjustment to the Oil Boom: A Comparative Study of Indonesia and Mexico”, Resources Policy, 23(4), 151-162.
  • Van Der Ploeg, F. & S. Poelhekke (2008), “Volatility and the Natural Resources Curse”, Oxford Economic Papers, 614), 727-760.
  • WB-WDI (2014), World Development Indicators, <http://data.worldbank.org/>, 18.11.2014.
  • Welsch, H. (2008), “Resources Abundance and Internal Armed Conflict: Types of Natural Resources and the Incidence of New Wars”, Ecological Economics, 67(3), 503-513.
  • WTO-World Trade Organization (2010), World Trade Report 2010: Trade in Natural Resources, Geneva: WTO.
  • WTO-World Trade Organization (2014), World Tariff Profiles, <http://tariffdata.wto.org/>, 18.11.2014.
  • Yang, B. & Y. Lam (2008), “Resources Booms and Economic Development: The Time Series Dynamics for 17 Oil-Rich Countries, Applied Economics Letters, 15(13), 1011-1014.
  • Yardımcıoğlu, F. & A. Gülmez (2013), “OPEC Ülkelerinde Hollanda Hastalığı: Petrol Fiyatları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Ekonometrik Bir Analizi”, Sosyoekonomi, 2013(1), 117-140.

Petrol Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Seçilmiş Petrol Zengini Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi

Year 2016, Volume: 24 Issue: 27, 85 - 102, 22.01.2016
https://doi.org/10.17233/se.01775

Abstract

Bu çalışma, seçilen 12 petrol zengini gelişmekte olan ülkede, petrol gelirlerinin ekonomik büyümeyi nasıl etkilediğini belirlemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Kişi başına reel gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla ekonomik büyümeyi gösterirken, petrol gelirini temsilen ham petrol fiyatı ve ihracatı alınmıştır. Bu ilişkiyi etkilemesi beklenen reel efektif döviz kuru ve tüketici fiyat endeksi de diğer açıklayıcı değişkenler olarak modele eklenmiştir. Kaynak talihsizliği bulgusunu araştırmaya yönelik olarak 2000- 2010 dönemi için panel veri regresyon analizi uygulanmıştır. Petrol gelirlerinin büyüme üzerine olan pozitif etkisinin oldukça düşük olması, ‘kaynak talihsizliği hipotezi’ni destekler niteliktedir. Genel sonuçlar, petrol kaynaklarının daha etkin kullanılmasına ve kaynak talihsizliğinin gelişim mekanizmalarının engellenmesine yönelik politikaların önemini ortaya koymaktadır.

References

  • Aditya, A. & R. Acharyya (2012), “Does What Countries Export Matter? The Asian and Latin American Experience”, Journal of Economic Development, 37(3): 47-74.
  • Alexeev, M. & R. Conrad (2009), “The Elusive Curse of Oil”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 91(3), 586-598.
  • Alkhathlan, K.A. (2013), “Contribution of Oil in Economic Growth of Saudi Arabia”, Applied Economics Letters, 20(4), 343-348.
  • Auty, R.M. (1993), Sustaining Development in Mineral Economies: The Resource Curse Thesis, London: Routledge
  • Baltagi, B.H. (2005), Econometrics Analysis of Panel Data, 3rd Edition, London: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Berument, M.H. & N. Ceylan & N. Dogan (2010), “The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected MENA Countries”, The Energy Journal, 31(1), 149-176.
  • Bhagwati, J.N. (1958), “Immiserizing Growth: A Geometric Note”, Review of Economic Studies, 25(3), 201-205.
  • Billon, L.P. (2001), “The Political Ecology of War: Natural Resources and Armed Conflicts”, Political Geograpy, 20(5), 561-584.
  • BP-British Petroleum (2014), Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, <http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview>, 18.11.2014.
  • Brunnschweiler, C.N. (2007), “Cursing the Blessing? Natural Resources Abundance, Institutions and Economic Growth”, World Development, 36(3), 399-419.
  • Callen, T. & R. Cherif & F. Hasanov & A. Hegazy & P. Khandelwa (2014), “Economic Diversification in the GCC: Past, Present, and Future”, IMF Staff Discussion Notes, SDN/14/12.
  • Caselli, F. (2006), “Power Struggles and The Natural Resource Curse”, LSE Research Working Paper, <http://personal.lse.ac.uk/casellif/papers/curse.pdf>, 09.12.2014.
  • Collier, P. & A. Hoeffler (2004), “Greed and Grievance in Civil War”, Oxford Economic Papers, 56 (2004): 563-595.
  • Corden, W.M. & P. Neary (1982), “Booming Sector and De-industrialisation in A Small Open Economy”, The Economic Journal, 92(368), 825-848.
  • Corden, W.M. (1984), “Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation”, Oxford Economic Papers, New Series, 36(3), 359-380.
  • Demiral, M. (2014), “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler, Sanayileşme ve İhracat: Türkiye İle Seçilmiş Ülke Karşılaştırmaları”, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Adana, Çukurova Üniversitesi SBE.
  • Feenstra, R.C. (2004), Advanced International Trade: Theory and Evidence, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Frankel, J.A. (2010), “The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey”, NBER Working Papers, No. 15836. <http://www.nber.org/papers/w15836>, 09.12.2014.
  • Ginsburg, N. (1957), “Natural Resources and Economic Development”, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 47(3), 197-212.
  • Graham, D. (1995), “Learning to Love The Dutch Disease: Evidence from The Mineral Economies”, World Development, 23(10), 1765-1779.
  • Guriev, S. & A. Plekhanov & K. Sonin (2009), “Development Based on Commodity Revenues”, EBRD Working Papers, No. 108, <http://www.ebrd.com>, 17.12.2014.
  • Gylfason, T. (2001), “Natural Resources, Education, and Economic Development”, European Economic Review, 45(4-6), 847-859.
  • Gylfason, T. & G. Zoega (2002), “Natural Resources and Economic Growth: The Role of Investment”, <http://www.econ.ku.dk/epru/files/wp/WEB-blaa-2001-02.pdf>, 23.11.2014.
  • Hsiao, C. (2003), Analysis of Panel Data, 2nd Edition, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Im, K.S. & M.H. Pesaran & Y. Shin (2003), “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 115(1): 53-74.
  • IMF-IFS (2014), International Monetary Fund-International Financial Statistics, <http://elibrary-data.imf.org/>, 18.11.2014.
  • Isham, J. & M. Woolcock & L. Pritchett & G. Busby (2005), “The Variety of Resources Experiences: Natural Resources Export Structures and the Political Economy of Economic Growth”, The World Bank Economic Review, 19(2), 141-174.
  • John, J.D. (2011), “Is There Really A Resource Curse? A Critical Survey of Theory and Evidence”, Global Governance, 17(2), 167-184.
  • Larsen, R.E. (2006), “Escaping the Resource Curse and the Dutch Disease? When and Why Norway Caught Up With and Forged Ahead of Its Neighbors”, American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 65(3): 605-640.
  • Lederman, D. & W.F. Maloney (2007), Natural Resources: Neither Curse Nor Destiny, Palo Alto & Stanford: Stanford University Press.
  • Levin, A. & C.F. Lin & C.S.J. Chu (2002), “Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties”, Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24.
  • Manzano, O. & R. Rigobon (2001), “Resources Curse or Debt Overhang?”, NBER Working Papers, No. 8390.
  • Mehrara, M. (2009), “Reconsidering the Resource Curse in Oil-Exporting Countries”, Energy Policy, 37(3), 1165-1169.
  • Neary, J.P. & S.V. Wijnbergen (1986), “Natural Resources and the Macroeconomy: A Theorical Framework”, UCD Centre for Economic Research, WP No. 36.
  • Ogunleye, E.K. (2008), “Natural Resources Abundance in Nigeria: From Dependence to Development”, Resources Policy, 33(3), 168-174.
  • Oomes, N. & K. Kalcheva (2007), “Diagnosing Dutch Disease: Does Russia Have The Symptoms?, IMF Working Papers, No. 7102, <https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2007/wp07102.pdf>, 13.11.2014.
  • Pessoa, A. (2008), Natural Resources and Institutions: The “Natural Resources Curse” Revisited, MPRA 8640, <http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8640/>, 07.12.2014.
  • Rodrik, D. (2005), “Policies for Economic Diversification”, CEPAL Review, 87, 7-23.
  • Prebisch, R. (1950), “The Economic Development of Latin America and Its Principal Problems”, Economic Bulletin for Latin America, Vol. 7, New York: United Nations.
  • Ross, M.L. (2001), “Does Oil Hinder Democracy?”, World Politics, 53 (2001), 325-361.
  • Sachs, J.D. & A.M. Warner (1995), “Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth”, NBER Working Papers, No. 5398.
  • Sachs, J.D. & A.M. Warner (1999), “The Big Push, Natural Resource Booms and Growth”, Journal of Development Economics, 59(1), 43-76.
  • Sachs, J.D. & A.M. Warner (2001), “Natural Resources and Economic Development: The Curse of Natural Resources”, European Economic Review, 45(4-6), 827-838.
  • Sala-i Martin, X. & A. Subramanian (2013), “Addressing the Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration from Nigeria”, Journal of African Economies, 22(4), 570-615.
  • Sarr, M. & E. Bulte & C. Meissner & S. Tim (2011), “Sovereign Dept and Resources Curse”, R.W. Kolb (ed.), Sovereign Debt: From Safety to Default, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, 51-62.
  • Singer, H.W. (1950), “The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries”, American Economic Review, 40(2), 473-485.
  • Torvik, R. (2002), ”Natural Resources, Rent Seeking and Welfare”, Journal of Development Economics, 67(2): 455–470.
  • US-EIA (2014), Energy Information Administration, <http://www.eia.gov/>, 18.11.2014.
  • Usui, N. (1997), “Dutch Disease and Policy Adjustment to the Oil Boom: A Comparative Study of Indonesia and Mexico”, Resources Policy, 23(4), 151-162.
  • Van Der Ploeg, F. & S. Poelhekke (2008), “Volatility and the Natural Resources Curse”, Oxford Economic Papers, 614), 727-760.
  • WB-WDI (2014), World Development Indicators, <http://data.worldbank.org/>, 18.11.2014.
  • Welsch, H. (2008), “Resources Abundance and Internal Armed Conflict: Types of Natural Resources and the Incidence of New Wars”, Ecological Economics, 67(3), 503-513.
  • WTO-World Trade Organization (2010), World Trade Report 2010: Trade in Natural Resources, Geneva: WTO.
  • WTO-World Trade Organization (2014), World Tariff Profiles, <http://tariffdata.wto.org/>, 18.11.2014.
  • Yang, B. & Y. Lam (2008), “Resources Booms and Economic Development: The Time Series Dynamics for 17 Oil-Rich Countries, Applied Economics Letters, 15(13), 1011-1014.
  • Yardımcıoğlu, F. & A. Gülmez (2013), “OPEC Ülkelerinde Hollanda Hastalığı: Petrol Fiyatları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Ekonometrik Bir Analizi”, Sosyoekonomi, 2013(1), 117-140.
There are 56 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Mehmet Demiral

Harun Bal

Emrah Akça

Publication Date January 22, 2016
Submission Date December 28, 2015
Published in Issue Year 2016 Volume: 24 Issue: 27

Cite

APA Demiral, M., Bal, H., & Akça, E. (2016). Petrol Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Seçilmiş Petrol Zengini Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi. Sosyoekonomi, 24(27), 85-102. https://doi.org/10.17233/se.01775
AMA Demiral M, Bal H, Akça E. Petrol Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Seçilmiş Petrol Zengini Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi. Sosyoekonomi. January 2016;24(27):85-102. doi:10.17233/se.01775
Chicago Demiral, Mehmet, Harun Bal, and Emrah Akça. “Petrol Gelirleri Ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Seçilmiş Petrol Zengini Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi”. Sosyoekonomi 24, no. 27 (January 2016): 85-102. https://doi.org/10.17233/se.01775.
EndNote Demiral M, Bal H, Akça E (January 1, 2016) Petrol Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Seçilmiş Petrol Zengini Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi. Sosyoekonomi 24 27 85–102.
IEEE M. Demiral, H. Bal, and E. Akça, “Petrol Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Seçilmiş Petrol Zengini Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi”, Sosyoekonomi, vol. 24, no. 27, pp. 85–102, 2016, doi: 10.17233/se.01775.
ISNAD Demiral, Mehmet et al. “Petrol Gelirleri Ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Seçilmiş Petrol Zengini Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi”. Sosyoekonomi 24/27 (January 2016), 85-102. https://doi.org/10.17233/se.01775.
JAMA Demiral M, Bal H, Akça E. Petrol Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Seçilmiş Petrol Zengini Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi. Sosyoekonomi. 2016;24:85–102.
MLA Demiral, Mehmet et al. “Petrol Gelirleri Ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Seçilmiş Petrol Zengini Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi”. Sosyoekonomi, vol. 24, no. 27, 2016, pp. 85-102, doi:10.17233/se.01775.
Vancouver Demiral M, Bal H, Akça E. Petrol Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Seçilmiş Petrol Zengini Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi. Sosyoekonomi. 2016;24(27):85-102.