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Suriye’den Zorunlu Göçün Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerindeki Etkileri

Year 2020, Volume: 28 Issue: 43, 49 - 64, 25.01.2020
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.03

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı Suriye’den Türkiye’ye gerçekleşen zorunlu göçün Türkiye ekonomisinin makroekonomik değişkenleri üzerindeki etkilerini ölçümlemek ve değerlendirmektir. Zorunlu göç sonucu etkilenmesi beklenen temel makroekonomik göstergelerin zorunlu göç öncesinde ve zorunlu göç sonrasında değişimi, farkların farkı yöntemi kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Zorunlu göçün hem enflasyonu hem de üretimi, istatistiksel olarak anlamlı şekilde, artırdığı gözlenmektedir. Özellikle, konut fiyatlarındaki artış kayda değer görülmektedir. Tahminlerimize göre, zorunlu göç eden nüfusta %1’lik bir artış, enflasyon ve üretimi %1’den daha fazla artırmaktadır. İşsizlik değişkenine ilişkin katsayının istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir sonuç göstermediği görülmüştür. Ayrıca, elde edilen sonuçlar, zorunlu göçün etkilerinin bölgesel bazda farklılıklar gösterdiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Sanayi üretiminin ve ekonomik kümelenmenin yoğun olduğu bölgelerin göçten olumlu etkilendiği, buna karşın kırsal kesimde göç sonucunda makroekonomik göstergelerin kötüleştiği gözlenmektedir.

References

  • Abadie, A. & A. Diamond & J. Heinmueller (2010), “Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490), 493-505.
  • Akgündüz Y.E., Van den Berg, M., & M. Hassink (2015), ‘‘The Impact of Refugee Crises on Host Labor Markets: The Case of the Syrian Refugee Crises in Turkey’’, Discussion Paper, No: 8841, IZA.
  • Bahçekapılı, C. & B. Çetin (2015), ‘‘The Impacts of Forced Migration on Regional Economies: The Case of Syrian Refugees in Turkey’’. International Business Research, 8 (9): 1 – 15.
  • Balkan, B. & E.Ö. Tok & H. Torun & S. Tümen (2018), “Immigration, Housing Rents, and Residential Segregation: Evidence from Syrian Refugees in Turkey”, Discussion Paper Series, No. 11611, IZA.
  • Balkan, B. & S. Tümen (2016), “Immigration and Prices: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Syrian Refugees in Turkey”, Journal of Population Economics, 29(3), 657-686.
  • Bauer, T.K., Braun, S. & M. Kvasnicka (2011), ‘‘The Economic Migration of Forced Migrants: Evidence for Post-War Germany’’, Discussion Paper, No.5855, IZA.
  • Bertrand, M., Duflo, E. & S. Mullainathan (2004), ‘‘How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(1): 249-275.
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  • Ceritoğlu, E. & H.B.G. Yüncüler & H. Torun & S. Tümen (2017), “The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Natives’ Labor Market Outcomes in Turkey: Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Design”, IZA Journal of Labor Policy, 6(5), 1-28.
  • Del Carpio, X.V. & Wagner (2015), ‘‘The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Turkish Labor Market’’, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No.7402, Washington DC, United States.
  • Esen, O. & A. Oğuş Binatlı (2017), ‘‘The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Turkish Economy: Regional Labour Market Effects’’, Social Sciences, 6(4): 1-12.
  • Fiala, N. (2015), ‘‘Economic Consequences of Forced Displacement’’, The Journal of Development Studies, 51(10): 1275 – 1293.
  • Hounkannounon, B. (2011), ‘‘Bootstrapping Differences-in-Differences Estimates’’, CIREQ, Universite de Montreal <https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Seminars%20and%20workshops/feb2012/4682249.pdf?la=en>, 10.09.2018.
  • Kondylis, F. (2008). ‘‘Agricultural Outputs and Conflict Displacement: Evidence from a Policy Intervention in Rwanda’’, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 57(1): 33 – 66.
  • Maystadt, J. F. & P. Verwimp (2014), ‘‘Winners and Losers among a Refugee – Hosting Population’’, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 62(4): 769 – 809.
  • ORSAM (Ortadoğu Stratejik Araştırmalar Merkezi) – TESEV (Türkiye Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Vakfı) (2015), ‘‘Suriyeli Sığınmacıların Türkiye’ye Etkileri’’, ORSAM Rapor No.195, Ankara.
  • Ruiz, I. & C. Vargas-Silva (2013), ‘‘The Economics of Forced Migration’’, Journal of Development Studies, 49(6): 772 – 784.
  • Sarvimaki, M., Uusitalo, R. & M. Jantti (2009), ‘‘Long – Term Effects of Forced Migration’’, Discussion Paper, No. 4003, IZA.
  • Whitaker, B. E. (2002), ‘‘Refugees in Western Tanzania: The Distribution of Burdens and Benefits among Local Hosts’’, Journal of Refugee Studies. 15(4): 339 – 358.
  • Xu, Y. (2017), “Generalized Synthetic Control Method: Casual Inference with Interactive Fixed Effects Models”, Political Analysis, 25(1), 57-76.
  • Zetter, R. (2012), Guidelines for Assessing the Impacts and Costs of Forced Displacement, World Bank, Washington DC, United States.

Impact of Syrian Forced Migration on Turkish Economy

Year 2020, Volume: 28 Issue: 43, 49 - 64, 25.01.2020
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.03

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to analyse the economic impact of Syrian forced migration on Turkish economy. In order to assess the response of macroeconomic variables to the influx of Syrian refugees, we resort to Difference-in-Differences method. We compare Turkish provinces on the basis of three macroeconomic indicators -unemployment, inflation, and production- before and after forced migration occurred. We find that forced migration increased inflation and production significantly. In particular, housing prices rise considerably with Syrian migration. We estimate that 1% rise in migrant population raises both inflation and production by more than 1%. We find statistically insignificant coefficients for unemployment. In addition, impact of forced migration displays regional differences. Regions with clustered industrial production are affected positively by the influx of Syrian migrants. Despite positive impact on industry clusters, findings indicate some deterioration of macroeconomic indicators of rural sectors.

References

  • Abadie, A. & A. Diamond & J. Heinmueller (2010), “Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490), 493-505.
  • Akgündüz Y.E., Van den Berg, M., & M. Hassink (2015), ‘‘The Impact of Refugee Crises on Host Labor Markets: The Case of the Syrian Refugee Crises in Turkey’’, Discussion Paper, No: 8841, IZA.
  • Bahçekapılı, C. & B. Çetin (2015), ‘‘The Impacts of Forced Migration on Regional Economies: The Case of Syrian Refugees in Turkey’’. International Business Research, 8 (9): 1 – 15.
  • Balkan, B. & E.Ö. Tok & H. Torun & S. Tümen (2018), “Immigration, Housing Rents, and Residential Segregation: Evidence from Syrian Refugees in Turkey”, Discussion Paper Series, No. 11611, IZA.
  • Balkan, B. & S. Tümen (2016), “Immigration and Prices: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Syrian Refugees in Turkey”, Journal of Population Economics, 29(3), 657-686.
  • Bauer, T.K., Braun, S. & M. Kvasnicka (2011), ‘‘The Economic Migration of Forced Migrants: Evidence for Post-War Germany’’, Discussion Paper, No.5855, IZA.
  • Bertrand, M., Duflo, E. & S. Mullainathan (2004), ‘‘How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(1): 249-275.
  • Bozzoli, C. & T. Brück (2010), ‘‘Child Morbidity and Camp Decongestion in Post-War Uganda’’, Research Working Paper, No.24, MICROCON.
  • Braun, S. & T. O. Mahmoud (2011), ‘‘The Employment Effects of Immigration: Evidence from the Mass Arrival of German Expellees in Post-War Germany’’, Working Paper, No: 1725, Kiel Institute.
  • Calderon, V. V& A. M. Ibanez (2009), ‘‘Labour Market Effects of Migration – Related Supply Shocks: Evidence from Internally Displaced Populations in Colombia’’, Research Working Paper, No. 14, MICROCON.
  • Ceritoğlu, E. & H.B.G. Yüncüler & H. Torun & S. Tümen (2017), “The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Natives’ Labor Market Outcomes in Turkey: Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Design”, IZA Journal of Labor Policy, 6(5), 1-28.
  • Del Carpio, X.V. & Wagner (2015), ‘‘The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Turkish Labor Market’’, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No.7402, Washington DC, United States.
  • Esen, O. & A. Oğuş Binatlı (2017), ‘‘The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Turkish Economy: Regional Labour Market Effects’’, Social Sciences, 6(4): 1-12.
  • Fiala, N. (2015), ‘‘Economic Consequences of Forced Displacement’’, The Journal of Development Studies, 51(10): 1275 – 1293.
  • Hounkannounon, B. (2011), ‘‘Bootstrapping Differences-in-Differences Estimates’’, CIREQ, Universite de Montreal <https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Seminars%20and%20workshops/feb2012/4682249.pdf?la=en>, 10.09.2018.
  • Kondylis, F. (2008). ‘‘Agricultural Outputs and Conflict Displacement: Evidence from a Policy Intervention in Rwanda’’, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 57(1): 33 – 66.
  • Maystadt, J. F. & P. Verwimp (2014), ‘‘Winners and Losers among a Refugee – Hosting Population’’, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 62(4): 769 – 809.
  • ORSAM (Ortadoğu Stratejik Araştırmalar Merkezi) – TESEV (Türkiye Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Vakfı) (2015), ‘‘Suriyeli Sığınmacıların Türkiye’ye Etkileri’’, ORSAM Rapor No.195, Ankara.
  • Ruiz, I. & C. Vargas-Silva (2013), ‘‘The Economics of Forced Migration’’, Journal of Development Studies, 49(6): 772 – 784.
  • Sarvimaki, M., Uusitalo, R. & M. Jantti (2009), ‘‘Long – Term Effects of Forced Migration’’, Discussion Paper, No. 4003, IZA.
  • Whitaker, B. E. (2002), ‘‘Refugees in Western Tanzania: The Distribution of Burdens and Benefits among Local Hosts’’, Journal of Refugee Studies. 15(4): 339 – 358.
  • Xu, Y. (2017), “Generalized Synthetic Control Method: Casual Inference with Interactive Fixed Effects Models”, Political Analysis, 25(1), 57-76.
  • Zetter, R. (2012), Guidelines for Assessing the Impacts and Costs of Forced Displacement, World Bank, Washington DC, United States.
There are 23 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Burcak Müge Vural 0000-0002-4252-6276

Publication Date January 25, 2020
Submission Date September 10, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 28 Issue: 43

Cite

APA Vural, B. M. (2020). Impact of Syrian Forced Migration on Turkish Economy. Sosyoekonomi, 28(43), 49-64. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.03
AMA Vural BM. Impact of Syrian Forced Migration on Turkish Economy. Sosyoekonomi. January 2020;28(43):49-64. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.03
Chicago Vural, Burcak Müge. “Impact of Syrian Forced Migration on Turkish Economy”. Sosyoekonomi 28, no. 43 (January 2020): 49-64. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.03.
EndNote Vural BM (January 1, 2020) Impact of Syrian Forced Migration on Turkish Economy. Sosyoekonomi 28 43 49–64.
IEEE B. M. Vural, “Impact of Syrian Forced Migration on Turkish Economy”, Sosyoekonomi, vol. 28, no. 43, pp. 49–64, 2020, doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.03.
ISNAD Vural, Burcak Müge. “Impact of Syrian Forced Migration on Turkish Economy”. Sosyoekonomi 28/43 (January 2020), 49-64. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.03.
JAMA Vural BM. Impact of Syrian Forced Migration on Turkish Economy. Sosyoekonomi. 2020;28:49–64.
MLA Vural, Burcak Müge. “Impact of Syrian Forced Migration on Turkish Economy”. Sosyoekonomi, vol. 28, no. 43, 2020, pp. 49-64, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.03.
Vancouver Vural BM. Impact of Syrian Forced Migration on Turkish Economy. Sosyoekonomi. 2020;28(43):49-64.