Yıl 2020, Cilt 28 , Sayı 43, Sayfalar 49 - 64 2020-01-25

Impact of Syrian Forced Migration on Turkish Economy
Suriye’den Zorunlu Göçün Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerindeki Etkileri

Burcak Müge VURAL [1]


The purpose of this research is to analyse the economic impact of Syrian forced migration on Turkish economy. In order to assess the response of macroeconomic variables to the influx of Syrian refugees, we resort to Difference-in-Differences method. We compare Turkish provinces on the basis of three macroeconomic indicators -unemployment, inflation, and production- before and after forced migration occurred. We find that forced migration increased inflation and production significantly. In particular, housing prices rise considerably with Syrian migration. We estimate that 1% rise in migrant population raises both inflation and production by more than 1%. We find statistically insignificant coefficients for unemployment. In addition, impact of forced migration displays regional differences. Regions with clustered industrial production are affected positively by the influx of Syrian migrants. Despite positive impact on industry clusters, findings indicate some deterioration of macroeconomic indicators of rural sectors.
Bu çalışmanın amacı Suriye’den Türkiye’ye gerçekleşen zorunlu göçün Türkiye ekonomisinin makroekonomik değişkenleri üzerindeki etkilerini ölçümlemek ve değerlendirmektir. Zorunlu göç sonucu etkilenmesi beklenen temel makroekonomik göstergelerin zorunlu göç öncesinde ve zorunlu göç sonrasında değişimi, farkların farkı yöntemi kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Zorunlu göçün hem enflasyonu hem de üretimi, istatistiksel olarak anlamlı şekilde, artırdığı gözlenmektedir. Özellikle, konut fiyatlarındaki artış kayda değer görülmektedir. Tahminlerimize göre, zorunlu göç eden nüfusta %1’lik bir artış, enflasyon ve üretimi %1’den daha fazla artırmaktadır. İşsizlik değişkenine ilişkin katsayının istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir sonuç göstermediği görülmüştür. Ayrıca, elde edilen sonuçlar, zorunlu göçün etkilerinin bölgesel bazda farklılıklar gösterdiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Sanayi üretiminin ve ekonomik kümelenmenin yoğun olduğu bölgelerin göçten olumlu etkilendiği, buna karşın kırsal kesimde göç sonucunda makroekonomik göstergelerin kötüleştiği gözlenmektedir.
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Birincil Dil en
Konular Sosyal
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Orcid: 0000-0002-4252-6276
Yazar: Burcak Müge VURAL (Sorumlu Yazar)
Kurum: Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İşletme Fakültesi
Ülke: Turkey


Tarihler

Yayımlanma Tarihi : 25 Ocak 2020

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { sosyoekonomi458603, journal = {Sosyoekonomi}, issn = {1305-5577}, address = {}, publisher = {Sosyoekonomi Derneği}, year = {2020}, volume = {28}, pages = {49 - 64}, doi = {10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.03}, title = {Impact of Syrian Forced Migration on Turkish Economy}, key = {cite}, author = {VURAL, Burcak Müge} }
APA VURAL, B . (2020). Impact of Syrian Forced Migration on Turkish Economy. Sosyoekonomi , 28 (43) , 49-64 . DOI: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.03
MLA VURAL, B . "Impact of Syrian Forced Migration on Turkish Economy". Sosyoekonomi 28 (2020 ): 49-64 <https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/sosyoekonomi/issue/52077/458603>
Chicago VURAL, B . "Impact of Syrian Forced Migration on Turkish Economy". Sosyoekonomi 28 (2020 ): 49-64
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Impact of Syrian Forced Migration on Turkish Economy AU - Burcak Müge VURAL Y1 - 2020 PY - 2020 N1 - doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.03 DO - 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.03 T2 - Sosyoekonomi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 49 EP - 64 VL - 28 IS - 43 SN - 1305-5577- M3 - doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.03 UR - https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.03 Y2 - 2019 ER -
EndNote %0 Sosyoekonomi Impact of Syrian Forced Migration on Turkish Economy %A Burcak Müge VURAL %T Impact of Syrian Forced Migration on Turkish Economy %D 2020 %J Sosyoekonomi %P 1305-5577- %V 28 %N 43 %R doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.03 %U 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.03
ISNAD VURAL, Burcak Müge . "Impact of Syrian Forced Migration on Turkish Economy". Sosyoekonomi 28 / 43 (Ocak 2020): 49-64 . https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.03
AMA VURAL B . Impact of Syrian Forced Migration on Turkish Economy. Sosyoekonomi. 2020; 28(43): 49-64.
Vancouver VURAL B . Impact of Syrian Forced Migration on Turkish Economy. Sosyoekonomi. 2020; 28(43): 64-49.