Year 2020, Volume 28 , Issue 45, Pages 37 - 47 2020-07-30

Is PMI a Leading Indicator: Case of Turkey
PMI Öncü Bir Gösterge mi? Türkiye Örneği

Saffet AKDAĞ [1] , Ali DERAN [2] , Ömer İSKENDEROĞLU [3]


In this study, the causal relationships of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) with various financial factors are examined. As a result of the analysis, it is determined that the change in the Istanbul-Stock-Exchange-Industry Index (ISEIND) causes the change in the PMI and the changes in the PMI also causes the changes in the Industrial-Production Index (IPI) and the Capacity-Utilization-Rates (CUR). It is also determined that the causality towards to PMI from the ISEIND and causality towards IPI from PMI is valid in the medium- and long-run, whereas the causality towards PMI to CUR are valid for the all periods. According to these results, PMI can be considered as a leading indicator for the real sector. However, the same result does not apply to the financial sector.
Bu çalışmada Satınalma Yöneticileri Endeksi (PMI) ile çeşitli finansal faktörler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi araştırılmıştır. Analiz sonucunda BİST Sanayi Endeksindeki değişimin PMI’daki değişimin nedeni olduğu, PMI’daki değişimin ise Sanayi Üretim Endeksi (SÜE) ve Kapasite Kullanım Oranındaki (KKO) değişimin nedeni olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca BİST Sanayi Endeksinden PMI’ya doğru nedenselliğin orta ve uzun dönemli, benzer şekilde PMI’dan SÜE doğru nedenselliğinde yine orta ve uzun dönemli olduğu, ancak PMI’dan KKO’na doğru nedenselliğin ise tüm dönemlerde geçerli olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlara göre PMI’ın reel sektör için öncü bir gösterge olabileceği değerlendirilebilirken, finansal sektör için benzer bir durumun söz konusu olmadığı değerlendirilmektedir.
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Primary Language en
Subjects Social
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Orcid: 0000-0001-9576-6786
Author: Saffet AKDAĞ (Primary Author)
Institution: UYGULAMALI TEKNOLOJİ VE İŞLETMECİLİK YÜKSEKOKULU
Country: Turkey


Orcid: 0000-0001-5377-6740
Author: Ali DERAN
Institution: UYGULAMALI TEKNOLOJİ VE İŞLETMECİLİK YÜKSEKOKULU

Orcid: 0000-0002-3407-1259
Author: Ömer İSKENDEROĞLU
Institution: NİĞDE ÖMER HALİSDEMİR ÜNİVERSİTESİ, İKTİSADİ VE İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ

Dates

Publication Date : July 30, 2020

Bibtex @research article { sosyoekonomi613633, journal = {Sosyoekonomi}, issn = {1305-5577}, address = {}, publisher = {Sosyoekonomi Society}, year = {2020}, volume = {28}, pages = {37 - 47}, doi = {10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.03}, title = {Is PMI a Leading Indicator: Case of Turkey}, key = {cite}, author = {Akdağ, Saffet and Deran, Ali and İskenderoğlu, Ömer} }
APA Akdağ, S , Deran, A , İskenderoğlu, Ö . (2020). Is PMI a Leading Indicator: Case of Turkey . Sosyoekonomi , 28 (45) , 37-47 . DOI: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.03
MLA Akdağ, S , Deran, A , İskenderoğlu, Ö . "Is PMI a Leading Indicator: Case of Turkey" . Sosyoekonomi 28 (2020 ): 37-47 <https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/sosyoekonomi/issue/56258/613633>
Chicago Akdağ, S , Deran, A , İskenderoğlu, Ö . "Is PMI a Leading Indicator: Case of Turkey". Sosyoekonomi 28 (2020 ): 37-47
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Is PMI a Leading Indicator: Case of Turkey AU - Saffet Akdağ , Ali Deran , Ömer İskenderoğlu Y1 - 2020 PY - 2020 N1 - doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.03 DO - 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.03 T2 - Sosyoekonomi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 37 EP - 47 VL - 28 IS - 45 SN - 1305-5577- M3 - doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.03 UR - https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.03 Y2 - 2020 ER -
EndNote %0 Sosyoekonomi Is PMI a Leading Indicator: Case of Turkey %A Saffet Akdağ , Ali Deran , Ömer İskenderoğlu %T Is PMI a Leading Indicator: Case of Turkey %D 2020 %J Sosyoekonomi %P 1305-5577- %V 28 %N 45 %R doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.03 %U 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.03
ISNAD Akdağ, Saffet , Deran, Ali , İskenderoğlu, Ömer . "Is PMI a Leading Indicator: Case of Turkey". Sosyoekonomi 28 / 45 (July 2020): 37-47 . https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.03
AMA Akdağ S , Deran A , İskenderoğlu Ö . Is PMI a Leading Indicator: Case of Turkey. Sosyoekonomi. 2020; 28(45): 37-47.
Vancouver Akdağ S , Deran A , İskenderoğlu Ö . Is PMI a Leading Indicator: Case of Turkey. Sosyoekonomi. 2020; 28(45): 37-47.