ANGSTRÖM-PRESCOTT MODELİNİN POLİNOM İLE GELİŞTİRİLMESİ VE DİYARBAKIR GÜNEŞ IŞINIMI VERİLERİNE UYGULANMASI

Öz

Dünyanın en önemli enerji kaynağı güneş enerjisi, çeşitli alanlarda farklı konular altında araştırılmaktadır. Özellikle, fosil yakıt kaynaklarının azalmasından beri güneş enerjisinin değeri ve önemi daha da artmıştır. Güneş enerjisi ile ilgili ilk araştırmalar 20. yüzyılın ilk çeyreğinde başlamış ve bu tür çalışmaların ilki güneş ışınımının güneşlenme süresine karşı tahmin edildiği çalışmadır. Bu makalenin hedefi, güneş ışınımının tahmini konusunda yeni bir yöntem niteliğindeki polinom çözümleme (analiz) yolunu sunmak ve uygulamaktır. Bununla birlikte, polinom çözümlemesi güneş ışınımını tahmin etmekte yetersiz kalacağından, Polinom ile doğrusal (lineer) bir model özelliğine sahip Angström-Prescott yaklaşımı önerilmiştir. PoLin (POlinom-LINeer) modelinin temel ilkesi, salınımı (periyodiklik) veriden ayırmak ve daha sonra Angström-Prescott modelini arınmış veriye uygulamaktır. Türkiye'nin Güneydoğu Anadolu bölgesi şehirlerinden Diyarbakır kapsamında sunulan yaklaşımın sonuçları ANFIS, HarLin ve Angström-Prescott modelleri ile karşılaştırılarak gerekli tavsiyeler sunulmuştur. PoLin modelinin çıktıları meşhur (klasik) Angström Prescott, HarLin ve ANFIS modellerinden daha başarılı bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ANFIS,Angström-Prescott; Güneş ışınımı; Güneşlenme süresi; HarLin; Polinom

Hybrid Model for Solar Irradiation Estimation Using Polynomial and Angström-Prescott Equation

Öz

The world’s most important energy source, solar energy, is being investigated in a variety of areas under different fields. Especially since the decline of fossil fuel resources, the importance of the solar energy has increased even more. Initial researches on solar energy started in the first quarter of the 20^th century and solar irradiation was estimated versus sunshine duration. This study suggests similar procedure to harmonic analysis application to solar irradiation and sunshine duration data. Basis of the methodology is combined application of the POlynomial and classical LINear regression analysis. Therefore, it is referred to PoLin model as a hybrid model. It isolates first the periodicity from the daily values, and then linear regression analysis is applied first to order stationary data. PoLin results are compared with the classical Angström-Prescott, HarLin, and ANFIS models. In the application, solar irradiation site is considered from solar energy potential location in Turkey, namely, at Diyarbakır. Estimations by PoLin model appears more successful than ANFIS, HarLin and Angström-Prescott approaches.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ANFIS,Angström-Prescott,HarLin; Polinom,Solar irradiation,Sunshine duration

Kaynakça

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