TÜRKİYE’DE KREDİ KARTLARININ TOPLAM ÖZEL NİHAİ TÜKETİM HARCAMALARINA ETKİSİ: BİR ÇOKLU REGRESYON ANALİZİ

Year 2007, Issue: 18, 25 - 47, 01.08.2007

Mikail Altan İbrahim Emre Göktürk

Abstract

Türkiye’de son on beşyılda toplam özel nihai tüketim harcamalarıher yıl ortalama %67,2 artarken, kredi kartıile yapılan tüketim harcamalarıortalama %104,3 artmıştır. Çalışmada; Türkiye’de kredi kartlarıile yapılan tüketim harcamalarının, diğer faktörler de dikkate alınarak, ekonomideki toplam özel nihai tüketim harcamalarınıne ölçüde etkilediği araştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla tüketim harcamalarınıetkileyen faktörlerden; harcanabilir gelir, piyasa faiz oranlarıve enflasyon oranlarına ilaveten kredi kartıile yapılan tüketim harcamalarıbağımsız değişken, toplam özel nihai tüketim harcamalarıbağımlıdeğişken alınarak çoklu regresyon analizi yapılmıştır. Analizde 15 yıllık seriler kullanılmıştır. Serilerin birinci farklarıalınarak yeni seriler elde edilmişve regresyon analizi zaman etkisinden arındırılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre toplam özel nihai tüketim harcamalarınıartıran faktörler sıralamasında ilk sırayıkredi kartlarının, ikinci sırayıharcanabilir gelirin aldığı, enflasyon ve faiz oranlarının önemli faktörler olmadığıtespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

Kredi kartı, Tüketim harcaması

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