Potential Effects of Central Bank Digital Currency in Turkey: An Assessment with SWOT Analysis

Year 2022, Issue: 48, 142 - 158, 29.08.2022

Zeynep Küçükkıralı Kerim Eser Afşar

https://doi.org/10.52642/susbed.1099641

Cited By: 1

Abstract

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey announced in its press release dated September 15, 2021 that it has established a “Digital Turkish Lira Cooperation Platform” with Tübitak, Aselsan and Havelsan. In this study, the potential effects of the central bank digital currency (CBDC), which is still in the design phase, on the Turkish economy are evaluated with SWOT Analysis. The aim of the study is to identify the strengths/weaknesses of the Digital Turkish Lira in the context of data on the Turkish economy, and to discuss possible opportunities and threats to CBDC. According to the findings of the study, the “optimal” Digital Turkish Lira, in which the financial sector is included in its design, will positively affect the efficiency and security of the financial system. The weakness of the technical infrastructure and the "inadequate" transformation of the financial system, especially the TCMB, are factors that may hinder the general acceptance of the CBDC. Institutional reforms implemented with the CBDC issuance can increase the effectiveness of the monetary policy and with the expansion of financial inclusion, the TCMB can gain a competitive advantage over “private payment systems”. We advocate that the “negative attitude” of the banking sector towards the CBDC and the concerns about digital data privacy that may occur in the society are serious threats to the Digital Turkish Lira. Depending on the CBDC design and the position of the banking sector, strengths can turn into weaknesses, opportunities turn into threats. For this reason, we suggest that CBDC design works be carried out jointly with the banking sector as a policy proposal.

Keywords

Central Bank Digital Currency, SWOT Analysis, Central Banking, Financial Inclusion

Türkiye’de Merkez Bankası Dijital Parasının Potansiyel Etkileri: SWOT Analiziyle Bir Değerlendirme

Abstract

Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası 15 Eylül 2021 tarihli basın duyurusunda Tübitak, Aselsan ve Havelsan ile birlikte “Dijital Türk Lirası İşbirliği Platformu” oluşturduğunu ilan etmiştir. Bu çalışmada henüz tasarım aşamasında olan merkez bankası dijital parasının (CBDC) Türkiye ekonomisi üzerindeki potansiyel etkileri SWOT Analizi ile değerlendirilmiştir. Çalışmanın amacı Dijital Türk lirasının, Türkiye ekonomisiyle ilgili veriler bağlamında güçlü/zayıf yönlerini tespit etmek, CBDC’ye yönelik olası fırsat ve tehditleri tartışmaktır. Çalışmanın bulgularına göre finansal kesimin tasarımına dahil olduğu “optimum” Dijital Türk Lirası, finansal sistemin verimliliğini ve güvenliğini pozitif etkileyecektir. Teknik altyapının zayıflığı ve TCMB başta olmak üzere finansal sistemin “yetersiz” dönüşümü, CBDC’nin genel kabul görmesini engelleyebilecek faktörlerdir. CBDC ihracıyla birlikte hayata geçirilen kurumsal reformlar, para politikasının etkinliğini arttırabilir ve finansal kapsayıcılığın genişlemesiyle TCMB, “özel ödeme sistemleri” karşısında rekabet üstünlüğü kazanabilir. Bankacılık sektörünün CBDC karşısındaki “olumsuz tutumunun” ve toplum nezdinde oluşabilecek dijital veri mahremiyetiyle ilgili kaygıların Dijital Türk Lirasına yönelik ciddi tehditler olduğunu savunuyoruz. CBDC tasarımına ve bankacılık kesiminin konumuna bağlı olarak güçlü yönler zayıf yönlere, fırsatlar tehditlere dönüşebilir. Bu nedenle CBDC tasarım çalışmalarının bankacılık kesimiyle ortak yürütülmesini bir politika önerisi olarak öne sürüyoruz.

Keywords

Merkez Bankası Dijital Parası, SWOT Analizi, Merkez Bankacılığı, Finansal Kapsayıcılık

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