Türkiye’de Çevresel Kuznets Hipotezi Geçerli Mi? Fourier Bootstrap ARDL Testinden Kanıtlar

Year 2022, Issue: 48, 171 - 183, 29.08.2022

Tunahan Hacıimamoğlu

https://doi.org/10.52642/susbed.1102773

Abstract

Son yıllarda iklim değişikliği ve çevre kirliliği konuları gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülke ayrımı yapılmaksızın tüm ülkelerin öncelikli politika gündemi haline gelmiştir. Çünkü günümüzde artan nüfus ve ekonomik faaliyetler doğal kaynakların kontrolsüz kullanımına ve çevresel tahribata yol açarak sürdürülebilir kalkınma sürecini olumsuz etkilemekte, hatta telafisi mümkün olmayan çevre sorunlarına neden olmaktadır. Bu bağlamda çalışmanın amacı 1970-2017 dönemi için çevresel Kuznets eğrisi (ÇKE) hipotezinin Türkiye için geçerli olup olmadığını Narayan ve Narayan (2010)’ın yaklaşımı çerçevesinde Fourier ARDL (FARDL) test yöntemi ile incelemektir. FARDL test sonuçlarından çevre kirliliği, gelir, küreselleşme ve dışa açıklık arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç itibarıyla çalışmada FARDL yöntemi ile elde edilen uzun ve kısa dönem gelir esneklik katsayıları karşılaştırılmış ve Narayan ve Narayan (2010)’ın yaklaşımı çerçevesinde Türkiye’de ÇKE hipotezinin geçerli olduğu doğrulanmıştır. ÇKE hipotezinin geçerli olduğunun tespit edilmesi Türkiye’de sürdürülebilir kalkınma politikalarının uzun dönemde başarılı olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma, Ekonomik Büyüme, Çevresel Kuznets Hipotezi, Çevre Kirliliği, Fourier ARDL.

Supporting Institution

Çalışma herhangi bir kurum tarafından desteklenmemektedir.

References

• Acar, S., & Aşıcı, A. A. (2017). Nature and Economic Growth in Turkey: What Does Ecological Footprint Imply?. Middle East Development Journal, 9(1), 101-115.
• Ahmed, Z., Asghar, M. M., Malik, M. N., & Nawaz, K. (2020). Moving Towards a Sustainable Environment: The Dynamic Linkage Between Natural Resources, Human Capital, Urbanization, Economic Growth, and Ecological Footprint in China. Resources Policy, 67, 101677, 1-11.
• Ahmed, Z., Wang, Z., Mahmood, F., Hafeez, M., & Ali, N. (2019). Does Globalization Increase the Ecological Footprint? Empirical Evidence from Malaysia. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(18), 18565-18582.
• Al-Mulali, U., Weng-Wai, C., Sheau-Ting, L., & Mohammed, A. H. (2015). Investigating the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Hypothesis by Utilizing the Ecological Footprint as an Indicator of Environmental Degradation. Ecological Indicators, 48, 315-323.
• Becker, R., Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2006). A stationarity test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381-409.
• Bekhet, H. A., & Othman, N. S. (2018). The Role of Renewable Energy to Validate Dynamic Interaction between CO2 Emissions and GDP toward Sustainable Development in Malaysia. Energy Economics, 72, 47-61.
• British Petroleum (BP). (2021). Statistical Review of World Energy. https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html, [Erişim Tarihi: 22.12.2021].
• Brown, S. P., & McDonough, I. K. (2016). Using the Environmental Kuznets Curve to Evaluate Energy Policy: Some Practical Considerations. Energy Policy, 98, 453-458.
• Bulut, U. (2021). Environmental Sustainability in Turkey: An Environmental Kuznets Curve Estimation for Ecological Footprint. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 28(3), 227-237.
• Cole, M. A. (2004). Trade, the Pollution Haven Hypothesis and the Environmental Kuznets Curve: Examining the Linkages. Ecological Economics, 48(1), 71-81.
• Cropper, M., & Griffiths, C. (1994). The Interaction of Population Growth and Environmental Quality. The American Economic Review, 84(2), 250-254.
• Destek, M. A., & Sarkodie, S. A. (2019). Investigation of Environmental Kuznets Curve for Ecological Footprint: The Role of Energy and Financial Development. Science of the Total Environment, 650, 2483-2489.
• Destek, M. A., Ulucak, R., & Dogan, E. (2018). Analyzing the Environmental Kuznets Curve for the EU Countries: The Role of Ecological Footprint. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25(29), 29387-29396.
• Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American statistical association, 74(366a), 427-431.
• Dogan, E., Taspinar, N., & Gokmenoglu, K. K. (2019). Determinants of Ecological Footprint in MINT Countries. Energy & Environment, 30(6), 1065-1086.
• Dogan, E., Ulucak, R., Kocak, E., & Isik, C. (2020). The Use of Ecological Footprint in Estimating the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for BRICST by Considering Cross-Section Dependence and Heterogeneity. Science of the Total Environment, 723, 138063, 1-9.
• Dong, K., Sun, R., & Dong, X. (2018). CO2 Emissions, Natural Gas and Renewables, Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence from China. Science of the Total Environment, 640, 293-302.
• Gallant, A. R., & Souza, G. (1991). On the Asymptotic Normality of Fourier Flexible Form Estimates. Journal of Econometrics, 50(3), 329-353.
• Global Footprint Network (GFN). (2021). Ecological Footprint. https://www.footprintnetwork.org/, [Erişim Tarihi: 10.11.2021].
• Godil, D. I., Sharif, A., Rafique, S., & Jermsittiparsert, K. (2020). The Asymmetric Effect of Tourism, Financial Development, and Globalization on Ecological Footprint in Turkey. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(32), 40109-40120.
• Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1991). Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement. NBER Working Papers Series, 1-39.
• Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1995). Economic Growth and The Environment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2), 353-377.
• Hashmi, R., & Alam, K. (2019). Dynamic Relationship among Environmental Regulation, Innovation, CO2 Emissions, Population, and Economic Growth in OECD Countries: A Panel Investigation. Journal of Cleaner Production, 231, 1100-1109.
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2014). Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/IPCC, [Erişim Tarihi: 17.11.2021].
• Kihombo, S., Ahmed, Z., Chen, S., Adebayo, T. S., & Kirikkaleli, D. (2021). Linking Financial Development, Economic Growth, and Ecological Footprint: What is the Role of Technological Innovation?. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(43), 61235-61245.
• KOF Swiss Economic Institute. (2021). KOF Globalisation Index. https://kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts-and-indicators/indicators/kof-globalisation-index.html, [Erişim Tarihi: 10.11.2021].
• Koyuncu, T., Beşer, M. K., & Alola, A. A. (2021). Environmental Sustainability Statement of Economic Regimes With Energy Intensity and Urbanization in Turkey: A Threshold Regression Approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(31), 42533-42546.
• Köksal, C., Işik, M., & Katircioğlu, S. (2020). The Role of Shadow Economies in Ecological Footprint Quality: Empirical Evidence from Turkey. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(12), 13457-13466.
• Kuznets, S. (1955). Economic Growth and Income Inequality. The American Economic Review, 45(1), 1-28.
• Lemos, M. C., & Agrawal, A. (2006). Environmental Governance. Annual Review Environment and Resources, 31, 297-325.
• Lin, D., Hanscom, L., Martindill, J., Borucke, M., Cohen, L., Galli, A., ... & Wackernagel, M. (2016). Working Guidebook to the National Footprint Accounts: 2016 Edition. Oakland: Global Footprint Network.
• Ludlow, J., & Enders, W. (2000). Estimating Non-linear ARMA Models Using Fourier Coefficients. International Journal of Forecasting, 16(3), 333-347.
• McNown, R., Sam, C. Y., & Goh, S. K. (2018). Bootstrapping the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Test for Cointegration. Applied Economics, 50(13), 1509-1521.
• Murshed, M., Rahman, M., Alam, M. S., Ahmad, P., & Dagar, V. (2021). The Nexus between Environmental Regulations, Economic Growth, and Environmental Sustainability: Linking Environmental Patents to Ecological Footprint Reduction in South Asia. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(36), 49967-49988.
• Narayan, P. K., & Narayan, S. (2010). Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Developing Countries. Energy Policy, 38(1), 661-666.
• Öcal, O., Altınöz, B., & Aslan, A. (2020). The Effects of Economic Growth and Energy Consumption on Ecological Footprint and Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Turkey. Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(3), 667-681.
• Ozcan, B., Apergis, N., & Shahbaz, M. (2018). A Revisit of the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Turkey: New Evidence from Bootstrap Rolling Window Causality. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25(32), 32381-32394.
• Panayotou, T. (1993). Empirical Tests and Policy Analysis of Environmental Degradation at Different Stages of Economic Development. International Labour Organization.
• Panayotou, T. (1997). Demystifying the Environmental Kuznets Curve: Turning a Black Box into a Policy Tool. Environment and Development Economics, 2(4), 465-484.
• Peng, B., Li, Y., Elahi, E., & Wei, G. (2019). Dynamic Evolution of Ecological Carrying Capacity Based on the Ecological Footprint Theory: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province. Ecological Indicators, 99, 19-26.
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
• Phillips, P. C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
• Rees, W. E. (1992). Ecological Footprints and Appropriated Carrying Capacity. Environment and Urbanization, 4(2), 121-130.
• Sarkodie, S. A. (2021). Environmental Performance, Biocapacity, Carbon & Ecological Footprint of Nations: Drivers, Trends and Mitigation Options. Science of the Total Environment, 751, 141912, 1-10.
• Selden, T. M., & Song, D. (1994). Environmental Quality and Development: Is There a Kuznets Curve for Air Pollution Emissions?. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 27(2), 147-162.
• Shafik, N. (1994). Economic Development and Environmental Quality: An Econometric Analysis. Oxford Economic Papers, 757-773.
• Shafik, N., & Bandyopadhyay, S. (1992). Economic Growth and Environmental Quality: Time-Series and Cross-Country Evidence (Vol. 904). World Bank Publications, 1-50.
• Shahbaz, M., & Sinha, A. (2019). Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 Emissions: A Literature Survey. Journal of Economic Studies, 46(1), 106-168.
• Sharif, A., Baris-Tuzemen, O., Uzuner, G., Ozturk, I., & Sinha, A. (2020). Revisiting the Role of Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Consumption on Turkey’s Ecological Footprint: Evidence from Quantile ARDL Approach. Sustainable Cities and Society, 57, 102138, 1-12.
• Solarin, S. A. (2019). Convergence in CO2 Emissions, Carbon Footprint and Ecological Footprint: Evidence from OECD Countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(6), 6167-6181.
• Sun, Y., Duru, O. A., Razzaq, A., & Dinca, M. S. (2021). The Asymmetric Effect Eco-innovation and Tourism towards Carbon Neutrality Target in Turkey. Journal of Environmental Management, 299, 113653, 1-9.
• Uddin, G. A., Alam, K., & Gow, J. (2016). Does Ecological Footprint Impede Economic Growth? An Empirical Analysis Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis. Australian Economic Papers, 55(3), 301-316.
• Ulucak, R., & Bilgili, F. (2018). A Reinvestigation of EKC Model by Ecological Footprint Measurement for High, Middle and Low Income Countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 188, 144-157.
• Wachernagel, M., & Rees, W. (1996). Our Ecological Footprint: Reducing Human Impact on the Earth. New Society Publishers, 1-29.
• Wang, Y., Zhang, C., Lu, A., Li, L., He, Y., ToJo, J., & Zhu, X. (2017). A Disaggregated Analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve for Industrial CO2 Emissions in China. Applied Energy, 190, 172-180.
• World Bank (WB). (2021). World Development Indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org/ [Erişim Tarihi: 11.12.2021].
• Yilanci, V., Bozoklu, S., & Gorus, M. S. (2020). Are BRICS Countries Pollution Havens? Evidence from a Bootstrap ARDL Bounds Testing Approach with a Fourier Function. Sustainable Cities and Society, 55, 102035, 1-12.
• Yilanci, V., & Pata, U. K. (2020). Investigating the EKC Hypothesis for China: The Role of Economic Complexity on Ecological Footprint. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(26), 32683-32694.