Küresel değer zincirlerinin tarım sektörüne etkisi: Türkiye üzerine bir değerlendirme

Abstract

Amaç: Çalışmanın temel amacı Türkiye’de tarım sektörünün küresel değer zincirlerine (KDZ’lere) entegrasyonunun tarım üretimi nasıl etkilediğini analiz etmektir. Tasarım/Metodoloji/Yaklaşım: Çalışmanın temel amacı kapsamında OECD-TiVA (2023) ve WD-WDI (2025) veri tabanlarından yararlanılarak, girdi-çıktı modelleri ve ekonometrik yöntemler kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada öncellikle, KDZ katılım endeksi, KDZ konum endeksi, Net Katma Değer Kazancı ve İthalat Ara Girdi Bağımlılığı hesaplanmıştır. Don sonra ARDL, F-ARDL ve FMOLS tahmincileri yarımıyla KDZ’lerin tarımsal üretim üzerindeki etkileri tahmin edilmiştir. Bulgular: Analiz sonuçlarından elde edilen bulgulara göre, 1995-2020 döneminde tarım sektöründe KDZ katılım endeksi artış göstermiştir. Bu da tarım sektörünün küresel üretim ve piyasalar ile entegre olduğunu göstermektedir. Ancak 1995-2020 döneminde tarım sektöründe KDZ konum endeksi ise negatif ve sürekli küçülmüştür. Bu da tarım sektörünün daha çok geri bağlantılar yoluyla KDZ’lere entegre olduğunu göstermektedir. 1995-2020 döneminde tarım sektöründe net katma değer kazancı 1’den küçüktür. Aynı şekilde bu da tarım sektöründe geri bağıntıların ileri bağlantılardan daha yüksek olduğunu göstermektedir. Girdi-çıktı tablolardan elde dilen bulgular da bu durumu doğrulamaktadır. Çünkü bulgular, 1995-2020 döneminde tarım sektöründe ithal ara girdi bağımlılığının sürekli artığını göstermektedir. Son olarak, ARDL, FMOLS ve Fourier-ARDL tahmincilerinden elde edilen bulgulara göre, 1995-2020 döneminde ihracatın yurtiçi katma değeri tarımsal üretimi artırırken, ihracatın yabancı katma değeri ise tarımsal üretimi olumsuz etkilemektedir. Özgünlük/Değer: Günümüz modern dünya ekonomisinde, üretim küresel bir hal almış ve sektörel üretim küresel üretim ağlarına gittikçe entegre olmuştur. Ancak literatür değerlendirildiğinde, özellikle tarım sektörü için çalışmaların sınırlı olduğu görülmüştür. Bu nedenle, Türkiye tarım sektörü için yapılmış olana bu çalışmanın literatüre katkı sağlayacağı düşünülmektedir.

Keywords

• Tarım sektörü
• ARDL
• Küresel Değer Zincirleri (KDZ’ler)

The effect of global value chains on the agriculture sector: An evaluation for Türkiye

Abstract

Purpose: The main purpose of this paper is to scrutinize the integration of Türkiye’s agriculture sector into global value chains (GVCs). Design/Methodology/Approach: Drawing on data from the OECD-TiVA (2023) and WB-WDI (2025) databases, the paper employs input–output models and econometric techniques. Firstly, the paper calculated the GVC participation index, the GVC position index, net value‐added gains, and import dependency. Then, using ARDL, Fourier-ARDL, and FMOLS estimators, the effects of GVCs integration on agricultural production were estimated. Findings: According to the analysis results, the GVC participation index in the agricultural sector rose between 1995 and 2020, indicating that the sector has become integrated with global production networks and markets. However, over the 1995–2020 period, the GVCs position index for the agricultural sector remained negative and continued to decline steadily. This suggests that the sector has integrated into global value chains primarily through backward linkages. Between 1995 and 2020, the net value-added gain in the agricultural sector remained below 1. Similarly, this indicates that backward linkages in the sector were stronger than forward linkages. The findings derived from the input–output tables also confirm this situation, as they indicate that import dependency on intermediate inputs in the agricultural sector steadily increased between 1995 and 2020. Finally, according to the results obtained from the ARDL, FMOLS, and Fourier-ARDL estimators, during the 1995–2020 period, domestic value added in exports positively contributed to agricultural production, while foreign value added in exports hurt it. Originality/Value: In today’s modern global economy, production has become increasingly internationalized, and sectoral production has been progressively integrated into global production networks. However, a review of the literature reveals that studies focusing specifically on the agricultural sector remain limited. Therefore, this paper is expected to contribute to the literature by addressing the case of Türkiye’s agricultural sector.

Keywords

• Agriculture sector
• ARDL
• Global Value Chains (GVCs)

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