Küresel değer zincirlerinin tarım sektörüne etkisi: Türkiye üzerine bir değerlendirme

Öz

Amaç: Çalışmanın temel amacı Türkiye’de tarım sektörünün küresel değer zincirlerine (KDZ’lere) entegrasyonunun tarım üretimi nasıl etkilediğini analiz etmektir. Tasarım/Metodoloji/Yaklaşım: Çalışmanın temel amacı kapsamında OECD-TiVA (2023) ve WD-WDI (2025) veri tabanlarından yararlanılarak, girdi-çıktı modelleri ve ekonometrik yöntemler kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada öncellikle, KDZ katılım endeksi, KDZ konum endeksi, Net Katma Değer Kazancı ve İthalat Ara Girdi Bağımlılığı hesaplanmıştır. Don sonra ARDL, F-ARDL ve FMOLS tahmincileri yarımıyla KDZ’lerin tarımsal üretim üzerindeki etkileri tahmin edilmiştir. Bulgular: Analiz sonuçlarından elde edilen bulgulara göre, 1995-2020 döneminde tarım sektöründe KDZ katılım endeksi artış göstermiştir. Bu da tarım sektörünün küresel üretim ve piyasalar ile entegre olduğunu göstermektedir. Ancak 1995-2020 döneminde tarım sektöründe KDZ konum endeksi ise negatif ve sürekli küçülmüştür. Bu da tarım sektörünün daha çok geri bağlantılar yoluyla KDZ’lere entegre olduğunu göstermektedir. 1995-2020 döneminde tarım sektöründe net katma değer kazancı 1’den küçüktür. Aynı şekilde bu da tarım sektöründe geri bağıntıların ileri bağlantılardan daha yüksek olduğunu göstermektedir. Girdi-çıktı tablolardan elde dilen bulgular da bu durumu doğrulamaktadır. Çünkü bulgular, 1995-2020 döneminde tarım sektöründe ithal ara girdi bağımlılığının sürekli artığını göstermektedir. Son olarak, ARDL, FMOLS ve Fourier-ARDL tahmincilerinden elde edilen bulgulara göre, 1995-2020 döneminde ihracatın yurtiçi katma değeri tarımsal üretimi artırırken, ihracatın yabancı katma değeri ise tarımsal üretimi olumsuz etkilemektedir. Özgünlük/Değer: Günümüz modern dünya ekonomisinde, üretim küresel bir hal almış ve sektörel üretim küresel üretim ağlarına gittikçe entegre olmuştur. Ancak literatür değerlendirildiğinde, özellikle tarım sektörü için çalışmaların sınırlı olduğu görülmüştür. Bu nedenle, Türkiye tarım sektörü için yapılmış olana bu çalışmanın literatüre katkı sağlayacağı düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tarım sektörü
• ARDL
• Küresel Değer Zincirleri (KDZ’ler)

The effect of global value chains on the agriculture sector: An evaluation for Türkiye

Öz

Purpose: The main purpose of this paper is to scrutinize the integration of Türkiye’s agriculture sector into global value chains (GVCs). Design/Methodology/Approach: Drawing on data from the OECD-TiVA (2023) and WB-WDI (2025) databases, the paper employs input–output models and econometric techniques. Firstly, the paper calculated the GVC participation index, the GVC position index, net value‐added gains, and import dependency. Then, using ARDL, Fourier-ARDL, and FMOLS estimators, the effects of GVCs integration on agricultural production were estimated. Findings: According to the analysis results, the GVC participation index in the agricultural sector rose between 1995 and 2020, indicating that the sector has become integrated with global production networks and markets. However, over the 1995–2020 period, the GVCs position index for the agricultural sector remained negative and continued to decline steadily. This suggests that the sector has integrated into global value chains primarily through backward linkages. Between 1995 and 2020, the net value-added gain in the agricultural sector remained below 1. Similarly, this indicates that backward linkages in the sector were stronger than forward linkages. The findings derived from the input–output tables also confirm this situation, as they indicate that import dependency on intermediate inputs in the agricultural sector steadily increased between 1995 and 2020. Finally, according to the results obtained from the ARDL, FMOLS, and Fourier-ARDL estimators, during the 1995–2020 period, domestic value added in exports positively contributed to agricultural production, while foreign value added in exports hurt it. Originality/Value: In today’s modern global economy, production has become increasingly internationalized, and sectoral production has been progressively integrated into global production networks. However, a review of the literature reveals that studies focusing specifically on the agricultural sector remain limited. Therefore, this paper is expected to contribute to the literature by addressing the case of Türkiye’s agricultural sector.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Agriculture sector
• ARDL
• Global Value Chains (GVCs)

Kaynakça

1. Ahmed, S., Appendino, M., & Ruta, M. (2017), Global value chains and the exchange rate elasticity of exports. B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 17(1), 1-24. doi:10.1515/bejm-2015-0130.
2. Ali, M. I., Rahaman, M. A., Ali, M. J., & Rahman, M. F. (2025), The growth–environment nexus amid geopolitical risks: cointegration and machine learning algorithm approaches. Discover Sustainability, 6(78), 1-24. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-00872-z.
3. Antras, P. (2020), Conceptual aspects of global value chains. The World Bank Economic Review, 34(3), 551–574. doi:https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhaa006.
4. Awokuse, T., Lim, S., Santeramo, F., & Steinbach, S. (2024), Robust policy frameworks for strengthening the resilience and sustainability of agri-food global value chains. Food Policy(127), 1-9. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102714.
5. Aydoğuş, O. (2015), Girdi-Çıktı Modellerine Giriş. Ankara: Efil Yayınevi.
6. Balie, J., Del Prete, D., Magrini, E., Montalbano, P., & Nenci, S. (2019), Food and Agriculture Global Value Chains: New Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. A. Elhiraika, G. Ibrahim, & W. Davis (Dü) içinde, Governance for Structural Transformation in Africa (s. 251–276), Cham: Palgrave Macmillan. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-03964-6_8.
7. Balie, J., Prete, D. D., Magrini, E., Montalbano, P., & Nenci, S. (2019), Does Trade Policy Impact Food and Agriculture Global Value Chain Participation of Sub-Saharan African Countries? American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 101(3), 773-789. doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aay091.
8. Beck, A., Lim, S., & Taglioni, D. (2024), Understanding firm networks in global agricultural value chains. Food Policy(127), doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102689.

9. Bergougui, B. (2024), Investigating the relationships among green technologies, financial development and ecological footprint levels in Algeria: Evidence from a novel Fourier ARDL approach. Sustainable Cities and Society(112), 1-15. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2024.105621.
10. Bertsatos, G., Sakellaris, P., & Tsionas, M. G. (2022), Extensions of the Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) bounds. Empirical Economics(62), 605-634. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-021-02041-3.
11. Bialowas, T., & Budzynska, A. (2022), The Importance of Global Value Chains in Developing Countries’ Agricultural Trade Development. Sustainability(12), 1-22. doi:https://doi.org/10.3390/su14031389.
12. Erkök, B. (2020), Türkiye Sanayisinin Küresel Değer Zincirine Entegrasyonu. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 75(2), 637 – 666. doi:10.33630/ausbf.571631.
13. Dağıstan, N. (2017), Küresel Değer Zincirlerinin Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaret ve Üretim Yapısına Etkileri. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi(ICMEB17 Özel Sayı), 824-835. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ijmeb/issue/54601/744524.
14. Dolan , C. S., & Tewari , M. (2001), From what we wear to what we eat: Upgrading in global value chains. IDS Bulletin, 32(3), 94 - 104. doi:10.1111/j.1759-5436.2001.mp32003010.x.
15. Gereffi, G. (2014), Global value chains in a post-Washington Consensus world. Review of International Political Economy(21), 9-37. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2012.756414.
16. Gharbi, I., Rahman, M. H., Muryani, M., Esquivias, M. A., & Ridwan, M. (2025), Exploring the influence of financial development, renewable energy, and tourism on environmental sustainability in Tunisia. Discover Sustainability, 6(127), 1-23. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-00896-5.
17. Giuliani, E., Pietrobelli, C., & Rabellotti, R. (2005), Upgrading in Global Value Chains: Lessons from Latin American Clusters. World Development, 33(4), 549-573. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2005.01.002.
18. Greenville, J., Kawasaki, K., & Beaujeu, R. (2017), How policies shape global food and agriculture value chains. OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers, No. 100. Paris: OECD Publishing. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/aaf0763a-en.
19. Gyasi, G., Frimpong, J. M., & Mireku, K. (2024), Economic growth through global value chains; new insight from exchange rate effects on the African economy. Cogent Economics & Finance, 12(1), 1-16. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2024.2318974.
20. Han, H., & Lee, S. (2025), Global value chains and disasters. Economic Systems Research, 1-21. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2025.2490641.
21. Hiroyuki, T., & Pham, S. (2019), Domestic value creation in the involvement in global value chains in Asian economies: Role of supporting industries. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 9(10), 1184 - 1191. doi:10.18488/journal.aefr.2019.910.1184.1199.
22. Hussein, O. A., & Abdullahi, A. M. (2025), Assessing the impact of agricultural production and institutional quality on environmental degradation in Somalia. Discover Food, 6(53), 1-13. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s44187-025-00310-z.
23. Jangam, B. P., & Badri , N. R. (2021), Do global value chains enhance or slog economic growth? Applied Economics, 53(36), 4148-4165. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2021.1897076.
24. Jiang, X., & Liu, Y. (2015), Global value chain, trade and carbon: Case of information and communication technology manufacturing sector. Energy for Sustainable Development(25), 1-7. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2014.12.001.
25. Jithin , P., & Ashraf, S. (2023), Global value chain participation and CO2 emissions: Does economic growth matter? New evidence from dynamic panel threshold regression. Energy Economics(128), 1-11. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107154.
26. Kersan-Skabic, I. (2017), Trade in Value Added (TiVA) in EU New Member States (EU NMS), Croatian Economic Survey, 19(2), 105-133. doi:10.15179/ces.19.2.4.
27. Kim, D., Steinbach, S., & Zurita, C. (2024), Deep trade agreements and agri-food global value chain integration. Food Policy(127), 1-14. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102686.
28. Kim, K. (2024), Non-tariff Measures on the Production Network: Analysis on the Forward and Backward Participation in Global Value Chains. International Economic Journal, 38(1), 1-20. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2023.2298952.
29. Kim, K., & Biyik, O. (2025), A Rise in Global Value Chains Participation: Stimulus for the New Goods? International Economic Journal, 39(1), 120-146. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2024.2430568.
30. Koopman, R., Powers, W., Wang, Z., & Wei, S.-J. (2010), Give Credit Where Credit Is Due: Tracing Value Added In Global Production Chains. NBER Working Paper Series (Working Paper 16426), Cambridge,, USA: National Bureau of Economic Research. Retrieved from http://www.nber.org/papers/w16426.
31. Koopman, R., Wang, Z., & Wei, S.-J. (2012), Tracing Value-Added And Double Counting In Gross Exports. NBER Working Paper Series (Working Paper 18579), USA: National Bureau of Economic Research. Retrieved from http://www.nber.org/papers/w18579.
32. Kordalska, A., & Olczyk, M. (2023), Upgrading low value-added activities in global value chains: a functional specialisation approach. Economic Systems Research, 35(2), 265-291. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2022.2047011.
33. Laghari, F., Ahmed, F., Ansari, B., & Ferreira, P. J. (2025), Agricultural Land, Sustainable Food and Crop Productivity: An Empirical Analysis on Environmental Sustainability as a Moderator from the Economy of China. Sustainability(17), 1-40. doi:https://doi.org/10.3390/su17051980.
34. Lebdioui, A. (2022), The political economy of moving up in global value chains: how Malaysia added value to its natural resources through industrial policy. Review of International Political Economy, 29(3), 870-903. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2020.1844271.
35. Liu, S., Durani, F., Syed, Q. R., Haseeb, M., Shamim, J., & Li, Z. (2022), Exploring the Dynamic Relationship Between Energy Efficiency, Trade, Economic Growth, and CO2 Emissions: Evidence From Novel Emissions: Evidence From Novel. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10, 1-10. doi:10.3389/fenvs.2022.945091.
36. Los, B., Timmer, M. P., & de Vries, G. J. (2015), How Global Are Global Value Chains? A New Approach To Measure International Fragmentation. Journal of Regional Science, 5(1), 66-92. doi:10.1111/jors.12121.
37. Manasseh, C. O., Logan, C. S., Okanya, O. C., Ede, K. K., Onuselogu, O. C., Olelewe, C., & Nwakoby, I. C. (2025), Nexus between stock market and agricultural sector development in Nigeria and South Africa: Accounting for three-regime marginal-threshold effects. Scienti􀏧c African (27), 1-20. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02575.
38. Miller, R. E., & Blair, P. D. (2009), Input-Output Analysis Foundation and Extensions. United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press.
39. Montalbano, P., & Nenci, S. (2022), Does global value chain participation and positioning in the agriculture and food sectors affect economic performance? A global assessment. Food Policy(108), 1-12. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2022.102235
40. Montalbano, P., & Nenci, S. (2020), The effects of global value chain (GVC) participation on the economic growth of the agricultural and food sectors. Background paper for The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets (SOCO) 2020. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. doi:https://doi.org/10.4060/cb0714en.
41. Mushtaq, B., & Afzal, M. (2024), Global Value Chain Spillovers and Economic Growth of SAARC Countries under the BRI Perspective. Global Business Review, 1-23. doi:10.1177/09721509241295835.
42. Nana, I., & Tabe-Ojong, M. P. (2025), Global value chain participation and economic growth in Africa. Applied Economics, 1-21. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2025.2470439.
43. Nor, B. A., & Yusof, Y. (2025), Environmental degradation and food security in Somalia. Discover Sustainability, 6(75), 1-17. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-024-00771-9.
44. OECD-TiVA. (2023), OECD.Stat. Retrieved 1 6, 2025, from https://stats.oecd.org/.
45. Olasehinde-Williams, G., & Oshodi, A. F. (2024), Global value chains and export growth in South Africa: evidence from dynamic ARDL simulations. Transnational Corporations Review, 16(1), 48-60. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/19186444.2021.1959833.
46. Osabohien, R., Jaffar, A. H., Adeleke, O. K., & Karakara, A. A.-W. (2024), Global value chain participation, globalisation-Energy Nexus and sustainable development in ASEAN. Research in Globalization(9), 1-10. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2024.100253.
47. Osman, B. M., Shire, S. A., Ali, F. H., & Mohamed, A. A. (2025), Examining the drivers of environmental degradation in Somalia: the role of agriculture, economic and population growth. Discover Sustainability, 6(150), 1-13. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-024-00786-2.
48. Ouedraogo, A. K., & Takpara, M. M. (2025), Enhancing industrial performance in Africa: the role of global value chains participation. Applied Economics, 1-18. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2025.2473114.
49. Ozer, S. K., Taglioni, D., & Winkler, D. (2016), Turkey's participation and economic upgrading in global value chains. In M. M. Erdogdu , & B. Christiansen (Eds.), Handbook of Research on Comparative Economic Development Perspectives on Europe and the MENA Region (pp. 418 - 468), Business Science Reference.
50. Ozgur, O., Yilanci, V., & Kongkuah, M. (2022), Nuclear energy consumption and CO2 emissions in India: Evidence from Fourier ARDL bounds test approach. (54), 1657e1663. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.net.2021.11.001.
51. Pahl, S., & Timmer, M. P. (2020), Do Global Value Chains Enhance Economic Upgrading? A Long View. The Journal of Development Studies, 56(9), 1683-1705. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2019.1702159.
52. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001), Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics(16), 289-326. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616.
53. Sun, Y., Jin, K., Wang, D., Wu, Q., & Li, Z. (2023), Revisiting the natural resources-financial development nexus in China: The importance of economic policy uncertainty. Resources Policy(86), 1-10. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104182.
54. Tabe-Ojong, M. P., Nana, I., Zimmermann, A., & Jafari, Y. (2024), Trends and evolution of global value chains in food and agriculture: Implications for food security and nutrition. Food Policy(127), 1-14. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102679.
55. Taguchi, H. (2014), Dynamic Impacts of Global Value Chains Participation on Asian Developing Economies. Foreign Trade Review, 49(4), 313-326. doi:10.1177/0015732514543586.
56. Taguchi, H., & Nibayashi, K. (2021), The Turning Point of Global Value Chain's Position in Emerging East Asian Economies. Economics Bulletin, 43(3), 1826-1842.
57. Tinta, A. A., Sarpong, D. B., Ouedraogo, I. M., Hassan, R. A., Mensah-Bonsu, A., & Onumah, E. E. (2018), The effect of integration, global value chains and international trade on economic growth and food security in ECOWAS. Cogent Food & Agriculture(4), 1-15. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/23311932.2018.1465327.
58. Uzar, U., & Eyuboglu, K. (2025), The role of income inequality in shaping fishing ground footprint in Indonesia: Insights from the fourier augmented ARDL approach. Marine Policy(176), 1-11. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2025.106635.
59. WB-WDI. (2025), World Bank Group. Retrieved 6 3, 2024, from World Development Indicators: https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators.
60. Wicaksono, P., Hikmah, Y., & Ilmiawani, R. N. (2023), Productivity and Global Value Chains: A Tale from the Indonesian Automobile Sector. Economies(11), 1-12. doi:https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11100262.
61. Wigley, A. A., Mıhcı, S., & Ataç, K. (2018), Türkiye İmalat Sanayii Sektörlerinin Küresel Değer Zincirleri İçerisindeki Konumu ve Rekabet Gücü: 2000-2011. In N. Engin, E. Aslanoğlu, O. Erdoğan, B. C. Karahasan, & K. Tata (Eds.), Türkiye Ekonomisinde Kalkınma ve Dönüşüm (pp. 217-251), ankara: İmge Kitabevi.
62. Xing, G., Leng, A., Feng, Z., & Zhang, Y. (2022), Impacts of China’s Emergence on the World Economy: A Value Chain Perspective. Journal of Systems Science and Information, 10(6), 575 - 597. doi:10.21078/JSSI-2022-575-23.
63. Yang, X., Zhang, P., Zhao, Z., & Koondhar, M. A. (2024), How disaggregated natural resources rents affect financial development: From the perspective of sustainable development. Resources Policy(92), 1-11. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.104982.
64. Zhang, D., & Sun, Z. (2023), The Impact of Agricultural Global Value Chain Participation on Agricultural Total Factor Productivity. Agriculture(13), 1-20. doi:https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture13112151.
65. Zhou, B., Huang, Y., Gao, K., & Luo, C. (2024), How geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty impact coal, natural gas, and oil rent? Evidence from China. Resources Policy(88), 1-9. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104393.