İklim değişikliğine bağlı olarak zeytinin (Olea europaea L.) Türkiye'de gelecekteki dağılımının modellenmesi ve uyum stratejileri üzerine bir inceleme

Abstract

Bu çalışma, MaxEnt modelleme aracı kullanılarak zeytinin (Olea europaea L.) dağılımında etkili olan biyoiklim değişkenlerini belirlemeyi ve yetiştiricilik için günümüzdeki potansiyel ile gelecekteki olası uygunluk modellerini oluşturmayı amaçlamaktadır. Günümüzdeki potansiyel habitat alanlarının belirlenebilmesi için yakın geçmişe (1970-2000) ilişkin biyoiklim değişkenleri kullanılmıştır. Gelecek tahminleri ise MRI-ESM2-0 modelinin SSP2-4.5 ve SSP5-8.5 emisyon senaryolarına dayalı olarak 2041-2060 ve 2081-2100 dönemlerine ait biyoiklim değişkenlerinden yararlanılarak yapılmıştır. Modelleme sonucunda, zeytinin dağılımına en fazla katkı sağlayan değişkenlerin Bio12 (yıllık yağış), Bio7 (yıllık sıcaklık değişim aralığı) ve Bio9 (en kurak 3 ayın ortalama sıcaklığı) olduğu belirlenmiştir. SSP2-4.5 ve SSP5-8.5 senaryolarından simüle edilen gelecek iklim modelleri, genel olarak günümüzle kıyaslandığında, uygun alanların gelecekte daha yüksek rakımlı alanlara ve kuzey yönüne doğru kayma olasılığı gösterebileceğini tahmin etmektedir. Ayrıca daha önce zeytin yetiştiriciliğine elverişsiz olan bazı alanların, gelecek dönemlerde daha uygun hale gelebileceğini öngörmektedir. Özellikle, ilerleyen yıllarda Karadeniz ve Marmara kıyılarının zeytin yetiştiriciliği için daha elverişli hale gelmesi beklenmektedir. İklim değişikliğinin zeytin üzerindeki zorlayıcı etkilerini hafifletmek ve sürdürülebilirliğini sağlamak amacıyla iklim değişikliğine uyum stratejilerinin geliştirilmesi ve uygulanması önemlidir. Bu doğrultuda, çalışmada sulama ve toprak yönetimi, çeşit seçimi, hastalık ve zararlılarla mücadele, hasat teknikleri, teknoloji kullanımı ve eğitim gibi faktörler ele alınmış ve uyum stratejileri açısından değerlendirilmiştir.

Keywords

• Zeytin
• İklim Değişikliği
• Uyum Stratejisi
• Tür Dağılım Modeli
• MaxEnt

Review on modeling and adaptation strategies of the future distribution of olives (Olea europaea L.) in Türkiye depending on climate change

Abstract

This study aims to determine the bioclimatic variables influencing the distribution of olive (Olea europaea L.) using the MaxEnt modeling tool and to create current potential and future suitability models for cultivation. Bioclimatic variables from the recent past (1970-2000) have been used to determine the current potential habitat areas. Future predictions have been made based on bioclimatic variables from the MRI-ESM2-0 model, using the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios for the periods 2041-2060 and 2081-2100. The modelling indicated that Bio12 (annual precipitation), Bio7 (annual temperature range), and Bio9 (mean temperature of the driest quarter) are the key bioclimatic variables influencing olive distribution. Future climate models simulated under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios suggest that, compared to the present, suitable areas are likely to shift toward higher altitudes and more northern latitudes in the future. Additionally, it is projected that regions previously unsuitable for olive cultivation may become more conducive in the future. In particular, it is expected that the Black Sea and Marmara coastlines will become more suitable for olive cultivation in the coming years. It is essential to develop and implement climate change adaptation strategies to mitigate the challenging impacts of climate change on olives and ensure their sustainability. In this context, the study addresses factors such as irrigation and soil management, biodiversity, pest and disease control, harvesting techniques, technology use, and education, and evaluates them in terms of adaptation strategies.

Keywords

• Olea europaea L
• Climate Change
• Adaptation Strategy
• Species Distribution Model
• MaxEnt

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