Seismic hazard assessment in active tectonic basins using a AHP-LR model: The case of Tokat (North Anatolian Fault Zone, Türkiye)

Abstract

Tokat Province, situated along the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), represents an active tectonic region that has historically been subjected to destructive earthquakes. In this study, the seismic hazard potential of Tokat Province was spatially modeled by integrating the expert-based Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the data-driven Logistic Regression (LR) methods. Eleven distinct conditioning parameters, including lithology, distance to faults, soil liquefaction, Vs30, slope, and settlement development, were utilized in the analysis. To mitigate overfitting in the LR model, the number of parameters was statistically reduced to seven key factors. The model training was executed using data derived from the very high risk zones identified by the AHP method. The analysis yielded an Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.952 for the LR model, indicating excellent predictive performance. While the AHP model classified 30.5% of the province as "Very Low Risk," the LR model expanded the risk zones, specifically categorizing the Erbaa, Niksar, and Tokat basins within the high risk class. Field observations conducted across the province confirmed that the identified surface ruptures correspond precisely with the high-risk predictions of the LR model. The resulting hybrid model provides a reliable framework for regional disaster management and urban planning strategies.

Keywords

• Seismic Hazard
• Analytic Hierarchy Process
• Logistic Regression
• Hybrid Model
• Tokat.

Ethical Statement

Ethics Committee Approval: Ethics Committee Approval is not required for this study.

Thanks

Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank Boğaziçi University Kandilli Observatory for providing the earthquake data used in this study for Tokat Province.

Aktif tektonik havzalarda AHP-LR modeli kullanılarak sismik tehlike değerlendirmesi: Tokat örneği (Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu, Türkiye)

Abstract

The province of Tokat, situated along the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), is an active tectonic region that has been subject to destructive earthquakes throughout history. In this study, the seismic hazard potential of Tokat Province has been spatially modelled by integrating the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), based on expert opinion, and data-driven Logistic Regression (LR) methods. The study utilized 11 different parameters, including lithology, fault distance, soil liquefaction, Vs30, slope, and settlement development. To prevent overfitting in the LR model, the number of parameters was statistically reduced to seven key factors. The model was trained using data from areas identified as very high hazard via the AHP. The analysis revealed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) for the LR model was calculated as 0.952, a value that demonstrates the model’s predictive success. Whilst the AHP model classified 30.5% of the province as very low risk, the LR model expanded the hazardous areas, classifying the Erbaa, Niksar and Tokat basins in particular as High Risk. Surface fractures identified during field observations across the province fully correspond with the LR model’s high-risk predictions. The resulting model provides a reliable basis for regional disaster management and urban planning strategies.

Keywords

• Sismik Tehlike
• Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci
• Lojistik Regresyon
• Hibrit Model
• Tokat.

Ethical Statement

Etik Kurul Onayı: Bu çalışma için Etik Kurul Onayı gerekmemektedir.

Thanks

Teşekkür Yazarlar, bu çalışmada Tokat ili için kullanılan deprem verilerini sağlayan Boğaziçi Üniversitesi Kandilli Gözlemevi'ne teşekkür ederler.

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