THE EFFECT OF FOREIGN TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ON ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE INFORMAL ECONOMY: THE CASE OF G20 COUNTRIES

Abstract

Studies on the determinants of energy consumption have been increasing in recent years. This study analyzes the effect of informal economy and selected macroeconomic variables on energy consumption for G-20 countries. Estimated by the Two-Stage System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) using dynamic panel data for the G-20 countries, including Turkey, from 2005 to 2017. The effects of the informal economy, imports, exports and economic growth on energy consumption are examined. As a result of the analysis, the effect of the informal economy on energy consumption has a negative and statistically significant effect. Therefore, the increase in the informal economy reduces energy consumption. The effects of imports, exports and economic growth on energy use are positive and statistically significant. An increase in these variables increases energy use. The findings of the study indicate that the informal economy levels of the G-20 countries are at desired levels and they should target lower informal economy levels.

Keywords

• Energy Consumption
• Informal Economy
• Economic Growth
• Imports
• Exports

KAYIT DIŞI EKONOMİ ÖZELİNDE DIŞ TİCARET VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜMENİN ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: G20 ÜLKELERİ ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

Enerji tüketiminin belirleyicileri üzerine son yıllarda yapılan çalışmalar artmaktadır. Bu çalışma kayıt dışı ekonomi ve seçilmiş makroekonomik değişkenlerin enerji tüketimi üzerindeki etkisini G-20 ülkeleri için analiz etmektedir. 2005’ten 2017'ye kadar Türkiye’nin de aralarında bulunduğu G-20 ülkeleri için dinamik panel veriler kullanılarak İki Aşamalı Sistem Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Yöntemi (GMM) aracılığıyla tahmin edilmiştir. Kayıt dışı ekonomi, ithalat, ihracat ve ekonomik büyümenin enerji tüketimi üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Yapılan analiz sonucunda, kayıt dışı ekonominin enerji tüketimi üzerindeki etkisi negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkiye sahiptir. Dolayısıyla kayıt dışı ekonominin artması enerji tüketimini azaltmaktadır. İthalat, ihracat ve ekonomik büyümenin enerji kullanımı üzerindeki etkisi pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır. Bu değişkenlerde meydana gelen bir artış enerji kullanımını artırmaktadır. Çalışma özelinde elde edilen bulgular, G-20 ülkelerinin kayıt dışı ekonomi seviyelerinin istenilen seviyelerde olduğunu ve daha düşük kayıt dışı ekonomi seviyelerini hedeflemeleri gerektiğini belirtmektedir.

Keywords

• Enerji Tüketimi
• Kayıt Dışı Ekonomi
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• İthalat
• İhracat

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