Tamamlanmamış Devrimler: Arap Baharı'nın Sudan ve Cezayir'deki Uzun Gölgesi

Year 2025, Volume: 12 Issue: 2, 1 - 26, 25.12.2025

Metin Özkan , Ettah M. Horma

https://doi.org/10.26513/tocd.1763136

Abstract

Unfinished Revolutions: The Long Shadow of the Arab Spring in Sudan and Algeria

Abstract

This article examines the enduring impact of the Arab Spring on Sudan and Algeria, focusing on the dynamics that have rendered their revolutionary trajectories “unfinished.” Building on the theoretical frameworks of civil-military relations, authoritarian resilience, and counterrevolution, the study situates both cases within the broader post-2011 political landscape of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The analysis highlights how structural legacies of post-colonial state formation, entrenched military influence, and regional geopolitical rivalries shaped the course of these uprisings. In Sudan, the fall of Omar al-Bashir in 2019 initiated a fragile civilian–military partnership, ultimately derailed by the 2021 coup, which reignited authoritarian consolidation. In Algeria, the Hirak movement forced the resignation of Abdelaziz Bouteflika but confronted a military establishment determined to preserve its dominance. Comparative insights reveal that in both contexts, militaries acted as decisive arbiters, constraining democratic transitions through tutelary roles and institutional autonomy. External actors also reinforced authoritarian resilience by supporting counterrevolutionary forces. The article concludes that the Sudanese and Algerian cases illustrate the limits of popular mobilization in dismantling entrenched praetorian systems, underscoring the need to reassess democratization theories in light of persistent authoritarian structures in the MENA region.

Keywords

Arab Spring , Counterrevolution , Middle East , Democratization , Authoritarian Resilience

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