Bekle ve Tutun: Brejnev Sonrası Sovyetler Birliği’nin Orta Doğu Siyasetinin Belirleyici Dinamikleri

Ahmet Bülbül

doi:10.26513/tocd.1896005

TR EN

Bekle ve Tutun: Brejnev Sonrası Sovyetler Birliği’nin Orta Doğu Siyasetinin Belirleyici Dinamikleri

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 1980–1991 döneminde Sovyetler Birliği’nin Orta Doğu politikasındaki dönüşümü askerî-ekonomik yayılmacılıktan diplomatik savunmacılığa evrilen bir süreç olarak incelemektedir. Temel argüman, Brejnev sonrası Sovyet Orta Doğu politikasının ani bir kopuşla değil; maliyetleri azaltmayı, riskten kaçınmayı ve mevcut nüfuzu sınırlı araçlarla korumayı hedefleyen bir “bekleme ve tutunma” stratejisi etrafında yeniden şekillendiğidir. Bu çerçevede Andropov–Çernenko dönemi savunmacı bir geçiş evresi olarak ele alınırken, Gorbaçov döneminde “Yeni Düşünce” yaklaşımıyla ideolojik çerçevenin yeniden yorumlandığı ve dış politikanın daha pragmatik ve diplomasi merkezli bir yönelim kazandığı gösterilmektedir. Çalışma, tarihsel-analitik bir yöntemle, birincil kaynaklara dayanan ikincil literatür üzerinden Sovyet tercihlerini yapısal sınırlar içinde açıklamaktadır.

Keywords

Sovyetler Birliği, Orta Doğu, Gorbaçov, Yeni Düşünce, Rusya

Ethical Statement

Bu çalışma, arşiv belgeleri, yayımlanmış birincil ve ikincil kaynaklar ile açık erişimli dokümanlara dayanan tarihsel-analitik bir araştırmadır. Çalışma kapsamında insan katılımcılar, deneysel uygulamalar, anket, mülakat veya kişisel veri kullanımı söz konusu değildir. Bu nedenle etik kurul onayı gerekmemektedir. Yazar, araştırma ve yayın sürecinde bilimsel etik ilkelere, akademik dürüstlük kurallarına ve Türkiye Ortadoğu Çalışmaları Dergisi’nin yayın etiği ilkelerine uygun hareket edildiğini beyan eder.

Wait and Hold: The Determining Dynamics of Soviet Middle East Policy in the Post-Brezhnev Era

Abstract

This study examines the transformation of Soviet Middle East policy between 1980 and 1991 as a process evolving from military–economic expansionism to diplomatic defensiveness. The main argument is that post-Brezhnev Soviet policy in the Middle East did not undergo an abrupt rupture; rather, it was reshaped around a “wait-and-hold” strategy aimed at reducing costs, avoiding risks, and preserving existing influence through limited means. In this context, the Andropov–Chernenko period is considered a defensive transitional phase, while during the Gorbachev era, the “New Thinking” approach is shown to have reinterpreted the ideological framework and contributed to a more pragmatic and diplomacy-oriented foreign policy orientation. Methodologically, the study adopts a historical-analytical approach and explains Soviet policy preferences within structural constraints, drawing on secondary literature based on primary sources.

Keywords

Soviet Union, Middle East, Gorbachev, New Thinking, Russia

Ethical Statement

This study is a historical-analytical research based on archival documents, published primary and secondary sources, and open-access materials. The study does not involve human participants, experimental procedures, surveys, interviews, or the use of personal data. Therefore, ethics committee approval is not required. The author declares that the research and publication process was conducted in accordance with the principles of scientific ethics, academic integrity, and the publication ethics guidelines of the Journal of Turkish Middle East Studies.

References

Aspaturian, V. (1990). Gorbachev’s “new political thinking” and foreign policy. In J. Valenta & F. Cibulka (Ed.), Gorbachev’s new thinking and Third World conflicts (ss. 3–44). Transaction Publishers.
Aspaturian, V. (1990). Gorbachev’s “new political thinking” and foreign policy. In J. Valenta & F. Cibulka (Ed.), Gorbachev’s new thinking and Third World conflicts (ss. 3–44). Transaction Publishers.
Boardman, R. (2019). The Middle East in the new international order: Gorbachev, the Russian Federation, and the rediscovery of the United Nations. In D. H. Goldberg, P. Marantz, S. Page & S. Gotowicki (Ed.), The decline of the Soviet Union and the transformation of the Middle East (ss. 58-73). Routledge.
Boardman, R. (2019). The Middle East in the new international order: Gorbachev, the Russian Federation, and the rediscovery of the United Nations. In D. H. Goldberg, P. Marantz, S. Page & S. Gotowicki (Ed.), The decline of the Soviet Union and the transformation of the Middle East (ss. 58-73). Routledge.
Borshchevskaya, A. (2022). Putin’s war in Syria: Russian foreign policy and the price of America’s absence. Bloomsbury Academic.
Borshchevskaya, A. (2022). Putin’s war in Syria: Russian foreign policy and the price of America’s absence. Bloomsbury Academic.
Brown, A. (1996). The Gorbachev Factor. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Brown, A. (1996). The Gorbachev Factor. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Chubin, S. (1987). Soviet policy in the Middle East. In M. Bruzonsky, S. Murphy & S. F. Wells (Ed.), Security in the Middle East: Regional change and great power strategies (ss. 254–279). Westview Press.
Chubin, S. (1987). Soviet policy in the Middle East. In M. Bruzonsky, S. Murphy & S. F. Wells (Ed.), Security in the Middle East: Regional change and great power strategies (ss. 254–279). Westview Press.

Dawisha, K. (1982). The USSR in the Middle East: Superpower in eclipse? Foreign Affairs, 61(2), 438–452.
Dawisha, K. (1982). The USSR in the Middle East: Superpower in eclipse? Foreign Affairs, 61(2), 438–452.
El-Hussini, M. M. (1987). Soviet-Egyptian relations, 1945–85. St. Martin’s Press.
El-Hussini, M. M. (1987). Soviet-Egyptian relations, 1945–85. St. Martin’s Press.
Freedman, R. O. (1991a). Moscow and the Middle East: Soviet policy since the invasion of Afghanistan. Cambridge University Press.
Freedman, R. O. (1991a). Moscow and the Middle East: Soviet policy since the invasion of Afghanistan. Cambridge University Press.
Freedman, R. O. (1991b). The Soviet Union and Syria: A case study of Soviet policy. In M. Efrat & J. Bercovitch (Ed.), Superpowers and client states in the Middle East (ss. 33-58). Routledge.
Freedman, R. O. (1991b). The Soviet Union and Syria: A case study of Soviet policy. In M. Efrat & J. Bercovitch (Ed.), Superpowers and client states in the Middle East (ss. 33-58). Routledge.
Freedman, R. O. (2019). Soviet foreign policy toward the United States and Israel in the Gorbachev era: Jewish emigration and Middle East politics. In D. H. Goldberg, P. Marantz, S. Page & S. Gotowicki (Ed.), The decline of the Soviet Union and the transformation of the Middle East (ss. 53–95). Routledge.
Freedman, R. O. (2019). Soviet foreign policy toward the United States and Israel in the Gorbachev era: Jewish emigration and Middle East politics. In D. H. Goldberg, P. Marantz, S. Page & S. Gotowicki (Ed.), The decline of the Soviet Union and the transformation of the Middle East (ss. 53–95). Routledge.
Golan, G. (1988). The Soviet Union and national liberation movements in the Third World. Unwin & Hyman.
Golan, G. (1988). The Soviet Union and national liberation movements in the Third World. Unwin & Hyman.
Golan, G. (1990). Soviet policies in the Middle East: From World War II to Gorbachev (Vol. 2). CUP Archive.
Golan, G. (1990). Soviet policies in the Middle East: From World War II to Gorbachev (Vol. 2). CUP Archive.
Karsh, E. (1991). Soviet policy towards Syria since 1970. St. Martin’s Press.
Karsh, E. (1991). Soviet policy towards Syria since 1970. St. Martin’s Press.
Kennedy-Pipe, C. (1998). Russia and the world, 1917–1991. Arnold.
Kennedy-Pipe, C. (1998). Russia and the world, 1917–1991. Arnold.
Keohane, R. O. (1984). After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Keohane, R. O. (1984). After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Kreutz, A. (2004). Russia and the Arabian Peninsula. Journal of Military and Strategic Studies, 7(2), 1–58.
Kreutz, A. (2004). Russia and the Arabian Peninsula. Journal of Military and Strategic Studies, 7(2), 1–58.
Kreutz, A. (2007). Russia in the Middle East: Friend or foe? Praeger Security International.
Kreutz, A. (2007). Russia in the Middle East: Friend or foe? Praeger Security International.
Middleton, D. (1982, November 17). Iraq says its treaty with the Soviets hasn’t worked. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/1982/11/17/world/iraq-says-its-treaty-with-soviet-hasn-t-worked.html
Middleton, D. (1982, November 17). Iraq says its treaty with the Soviets hasn’t worked. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/1982/11/17/world/iraq-says-its-treaty-with-soviet-hasn-t-worked.html
Moltz, J. C., & Ross, D. B. (2016). The Soviet Union and the Iran–Iraq War, 1980–88. In G. W. Breslauer (Ed.), Soviet strategy in the Middle East (ss. 123–150). Routledge.
Moltz, J. C., & Ross, D. B. (2016). The Soviet Union and the Iran–Iraq War, 1980–88. In G. W. Breslauer (Ed.), Soviet strategy in the Middle East (ss. 123–150). Routledge.
Morgenthau, H. J. (1948). Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
Morgenthau, H. J. (1948). Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
Nizameddin, T. (1999). Russia and the Middle East: Towards a new foreign policy. St. Martin’s Press.
Nizameddin, T. (1999). Russia and the Middle East: Towards a new foreign policy. St. Martin’s Press.
Page, S. (2019). New political thinking and Soviet policy toward regional conflict in the Middle East: The Gulf wars. In D. H. Goldberg, P. Marantz, S. Page & S. Gotowicki (Ed.), The decline of the Soviet Union and the transformation of the Middle East (ss. 19–33). Routledge.
Page, S. (2019). New political thinking and Soviet policy toward regional conflict in the Middle East: The Gulf wars. In D. H. Goldberg, P. Marantz, S. Page & S. Gotowicki (Ed.), The decline of the Soviet Union and the transformation of the Middle East (ss. 19–33). Routledge.
Pankin, B. (1996). The last hundred days of the Soviet Union. I.B. Tauris.
Pankin, B. (1996). The last hundred days of the Soviet Union. I.B. Tauris.
Perović, J. (Ed.). (2017). Cold War Energy: A Transnational History of Soviet Oil and Gas. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan.
Perović, J. (Ed.). (2017). Cold War Energy: A Transnational History of Soviet Oil and Gas. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan.
Primakov, Y. (2009). Russia and the Arabs: Behind the scenes in the Middle East from the Cold War to the present. Basic Books.
Primakov, Y. (2009). Russia and the Arabs: Behind the scenes in the Middle East from the Cold War to the present. Basic Books.
Rakov, D. (2024). Israel and Russia. In J. Peters & R. G. Pinfold (Ed.), Routledge handbook on Israel’s foreign relations (ss. 180–192). Routledge.
Rakov, D. (2024). Israel and Russia. In J. Peters & R. G. Pinfold (Ed.), Routledge handbook on Israel’s foreign relations (ss. 180–192). Routledge.
Ross, D. B. (2016). Soviet Behaviour toward the Lebanon War, 1982–84. In G. W. Breslauer (Ed.), Soviet strategy in the Middle East (ss. 99–121). Routledge.
Ross, D. B. (2016). Soviet Behaviour toward the Lebanon War, 1982–84. In G. W. Breslauer (Ed.), Soviet strategy in the Middle East (ss. 99–121). Routledge.
Ruggie, J. G. (1992). Multilateralism: The Anatomy of an Institution. International Organization, 46(3), 561–598.
Ruggie, J. G. (1992). Multilateralism: The Anatomy of an Institution. International Organization, 46(3), 561–598.
Saivetz, C. R. (2019). Gorbachev’s Middle East policy: The Arab dimension. In D. H. Goldberg, P. Marantz, S. Page & S. Gotowicki (Ed.), The decline of the Soviet Union and the transformation of the Middle East (ss.7–27). Routledge.
Saivetz, C. R. (2019). Gorbachev’s Middle East policy: The Arab dimension. In D. H. Goldberg, P. Marantz, S. Page & S. Gotowicki (Ed.), The decline of the Soviet Union and the transformation of the Middle East (ss.7–27). Routledge.
Smolansky, O. M., & Smolansky, B. M. (1991). The USSR and Iraq: The Soviet quest for influence. Durham: Duke University Press.
Smolansky, O. M., & Smolansky, B. M. (1991). The USSR and Iraq: The Soviet quest for influence. Durham: Duke University Press.
Sowdon, J. J. (1987). Soviet foreign policy in the Middle East: Internal and external determinants (Yayımlanmamış yüksek lisans tezi). Naval Postgraduate School. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA184701.pdf
Sowdon, J. J. (1987). Soviet foreign policy in the Middle East: Internal and external determinants (Yayımlanmamış yüksek lisans tezi). Naval Postgraduate School. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA184701.pdf
Şafak, A. E. (2024). The Soviets and Arab Republics’ alliance amid Cold War dynamics. Avrasya Etüdleri, 30(63), 85–108.
Şafak, A. E. (2024). The Soviets and Arab Republics’ alliance amid Cold War dynamics. Avrasya Etüdleri, 30(63), 85–108.
Tolts, M. (2020). A half century of Jewish emigration from the former Soviet Union. In M. Denisenko, S. Strozza& M. Light (Ed.), Migration from the newly independent states: 25 years after thecollapse of the USSR (ss. 323–344). Springer.
Tolts, M. (2020). A half century of Jewish emigration from the former Soviet Union. In M. Denisenko, S. Strozza& M. Light (Ed.), Migration from the newly independent states: 25 years after thecollapse of the USSR (ss. 323–344). Springer.
Valenta, J., & Cibulka, F. (1990). Introduction. In J. Valenta & F. Cibulka (Ed.), Gorbachev’s new thinking and Third World conflicts (ss. vii–xxiii). Transaction Publishers.
Valenta, J., & Cibulka, F. (1990). Introduction. In J. Valenta & F. Cibulka (Ed.), Gorbachev’s new thinking and Third World conflicts (ss. vii–xxiii). Transaction Publishers.
Vasiliev, A. (2018). Russia’s Middle East policy: From Lenin to Putin. Routledge.
Vasiliev, A. (2018). Russia’s Middle East policy: From Lenin to Putin. Routledge.
Yodfat, A. (1983). The Soviet Union and the Arabian Peninsula (RLE Iran D). Croom Helm.
Yodfat, A. (1983). The Soviet Union and the Arabian Peninsula (RLE Iran D). Croom Helm.
Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.

Details

Primary Language

Turkish

Subjects

Regional Studies

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Ahmet Bülbül ^*
0000-0002-3761-8002
Türkiye

Early Pub Date

September 14, 2026

Publication Date

-

Submission Date

February 23, 2026

Acceptance Date

August 24, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Number: Advanced Online Publication

DOI

https://doi.org/10.26513/tocd.1896005

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA97NB35ND

APA

Bülbül, A. (2026). Bekle ve Tutun: Brejnev Sonrası Sovyetler Birliği’nin Orta Doğu Siyasetinin Belirleyici Dinamikleri. Türkiye Ortadoğu Çalışmaları Dergisi, Advanced Online Publication. https://doi.org/10.26513/tocd.1896005

AMA

1.Bülbül A. Bekle ve Tutun: Brejnev Sonrası Sovyetler Birliği’nin Orta Doğu Siyasetinin Belirleyici Dinamikleri. TJMES. 2026;(Advanced Online Publication). doi:10.26513/tocd.1896005

Chicago

Bülbül, Ahmet. 2026. “Bekle Ve Tutun: Brejnev Sonrası Sovyetler Birliği’nin Orta Doğu Siyasetinin Belirleyici Dinamikleri”. Türkiye Ortadoğu Çalışmaları Dergisi, no. Advanced Online Publication. https://doi.org/10.26513/tocd.1896005.

EndNote

Bülbül A (September 1, 2026) Bekle ve Tutun: Brejnev Sonrası Sovyetler Birliği’nin Orta Doğu Siyasetinin Belirleyici Dinamikleri. Türkiye Ortadoğu Çalışmaları Dergisi Advanced Online Publication

IEEE

[1]A. Bülbül, “Bekle ve Tutun: Brejnev Sonrası Sovyetler Birliği’nin Orta Doğu Siyasetinin Belirleyici Dinamikleri”, TJMES, no. Advanced Online Publication, Sept. 2026, doi: 10.26513/tocd.1896005.

ISNAD

Bülbül, Ahmet. “Bekle Ve Tutun: Brejnev Sonrası Sovyetler Birliği’nin Orta Doğu Siyasetinin Belirleyici Dinamikleri”. Türkiye Ortadoğu Çalışmaları Dergisi. Advanced Online Publication (September 1, 2026). https://doi.org/10.26513/tocd.1896005.

JAMA

1.Bülbül A. Bekle ve Tutun: Brejnev Sonrası Sovyetler Birliği’nin Orta Doğu Siyasetinin Belirleyici Dinamikleri. TJMES. 2026. doi:10.26513/tocd.1896005.

MLA

Bülbül, Ahmet. “Bekle Ve Tutun: Brejnev Sonrası Sovyetler Birliği’nin Orta Doğu Siyasetinin Belirleyici Dinamikleri”. Türkiye Ortadoğu Çalışmaları Dergisi, no. Advanced Online Publication, Sept. 2026, doi:10.26513/tocd.1896005.

Vancouver

1.Ahmet Bülbül. Bekle ve Tutun: Brejnev Sonrası Sovyetler Birliği’nin Orta Doğu Siyasetinin Belirleyici Dinamikleri. TJMES. 2026 Sep. 1;(Advanced Online Publication). doi:10.26513/tocd.1896005

The published articles in TJMES are licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License

Bekle ve Tutun: Brejnev Sonrası Sovyetler Birliği’nin Orta Doğu Siyasetinin Belirleyici Dinamikleri

Abstract

Keywords

Ethical Statement

Wait and Hold: The Determining Dynamics of Soviet Middle East Policy in the Post-Brezhnev Era

Abstract

Keywords

Ethical Statement

References

Details

Primary Language

Subjects

Journal Section

Authors

Early Pub Date

Publication Date

Submission Date

Acceptance Date

Published in Issue

DOI

IZ

Cite