BAYESIAN APPROACH IN MULTINOMIAL PROBIT MODEL: INVESTIGATION OF COOKING OIL CONSUMPTION IN TURKEY

Year 2017, Volume: 19 Issue: 2, 441 - 459, 27.12.2017

Çiler Sizege

Abstract

In this study, it was aimed to
determine the factors effecting oil consumption in Turkey utilizing the
TurkStat’s Household Budget Survey of 2009. Multinomial Probit model was fitted
to the data, and model parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood and bayesian
approaches. While the significance and signs of parameters estimated by both
approaches exhibited similarities, the magnitudes of parameter estimates are
observed differently.

Keywords

Households, Bayesian Approach, Multinomial Probit Model, Turkey

MULTİNOMİAL PROBİT MODELİNDE BAYES YAKLAŞIMI: TÜRKİYE’DE YAĞ TÜKETİM TERCİHİNİN İNCELENMESİ

Abstract

Çalışmada Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu’nun 2009 yılı Hanehalkı Bütçe Anketi
verilerinden yararlanılarak Türkiye’de yağ tüketim tercihlerini etkileyen
etmenlerin belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Dört yağ çeşidinin tercihine ilişkin
olarak oluşturulan multinomial probit modelin parametre tahminleri en çok
olabilirlik ve bayes yaklaşımları kullanılarak elde edilmiştir. Çalışmanın
sonucuna göre, tahmin edilen parametrelerin anlamlılıkları ve işaretleri
benzerlik göstermektedir. Bunun yanında, yöntemler arasındaki farklılıklardan
kaynaklı olarak parametre tahminlerinin büyüklüklerinde değişiklik
görülmektedir.

Keywords

Hanehalkı, Bayes Yaklaşımı, Multinomial Probit Model, Türkiye

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