Determining the Effect of Foreign Trade On Employment in Turkey with Spatial Panel Data Analysis / Türkiye'de Dış Ticaretin İstihdam Üzerinde Etkisinin Mekânsal Panel Veri Analizi İle Belirlenmesi

Abstract

In this study, which examines the relationship between foreign trade and employment, which is directly proportional to economic growth, the aim is to investigate the effect of import and export on employment by including neighborhood relations. In the study, while the number of insured 4a, 4b and 4c in Turkey's 81 provinces is considered as employment variable, annual import, export and population values are also considered as independent variables and the period of 2009-2020 is examined. Using the spatial econometrics application, which also includes the effect of neighborhood relations, remarkable results were obtained in the study, which was examined under three headings: spatial Durbin, spatial autoregressive and spatial error model. Models were estimated using the Maximum Likelihood (ML) method. In the study, Moran's I index was calculated to examine the convergence in employment rates between provinces. According to the model results, it was determined that there is a significant inverse relationship between exports and employment. Population variable, on the other hand, was found to have a significant relationship in the same direction with employment. A significant effect of the import variable could not be determined. When the variables of neighboring provinces were examined, it was concluded that the variables of import and employment were significant.

Keywords

• spatial analysis
• maximum likelihood
• employment
• Foreign Trade

Determining the Effect of Foreign Trade On Employment in Turkey with Spatial Panel Data Analysis / Türkiye'de Dış Ticaretin İstihdam Üzerinde Etkisinin Mekânsal Panel Veri Analizi İle Belirlenmesi

Abstract

Ekonomik büyüme ile doğru orantılı olan dış ticaret ve istihdam ilişkisinin incelendiği bu çalışmada, amaç istihdam üzerinde ithalat ve ihracat etkisini komşuluk ilişkilerinin dâhil edilerek araştırılmasıdır. Çalışmada, Türkiye 81 iline ait 4a, 4b ve 4c sigortalı sayısı istihdam değişkeni olarak ele alınırken yıllık ithalat, ihracat ve nüfus değerleri bağımsız değişken olarak kullanılmış ve 2009-2020 dönemi incelenmiştir. Komşuluk ilişkilerinin de etkisini dâhil eden mekânsal ekonometri uygulaması kullanılarak mekânsal Durbin, mekânsal gecikmeli ve mekânsal hata modeli olmak üzere üç başlık altında analizler yapılmıştır. Modeller Maksimum Olabilirlik (ML) yöntemi kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışmada iller arasındaki istihdam oranlarındaki yakınsamayı incelemek için Moran’s I endeksi hesaplanmıştır. Mekânsal model sonuçlarına göre ihracatın istihdam ile ters yönde anlamlı bir ilişkisinin olduğu belirlenirken nüfus değişkeninin istihdam ile aynı yönde anlamlı bir ilişkiye sahip olduğu görülmüştür. İthalat değişkeninin istihdam üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi tespit edilememiştir. Komşu illerin değişkenleri incelendiğinde ithalat ve istihdam değişkenlerinin anlamlı olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Keywords

• Mekânsal Analiz
• Maksimum Olabilirlik
• Dış Ticaret
• İstihdam

References

1. Aksöz Yılmaz, H. (2021). Panel Data Model Analysis on the Relationship Between Export and Employment: The Case of OECD Countries. Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 8(2), 115-139.
2. Anselin, L. (1988). Spatial Econometrics Methods and Models. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
3. Anselin, L. (2001). Spatial Econometrics. Baltagi. B. H. (Eds.), a Companion to Theoretical Econometrics. Oxford: Blackwell Scientific Publications.
4. Anselin, L. (2003). Spatial Externalities, Spatial Multipliers and Spatial Econometrics. International Regional Science Review, 26(2), 153–166.
5. Anselin, L. and Bera, A. K. (1998). Spatial Dependence in Linear Regression Models with an Introduction to Spatial Econometrics, Handbook of Applied Economic Statistics, 237-289.
6. Anselin, L. and Hudak, S. (1992). Spatial Econometrics in Practice: A Review of Software Options. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 22(3), 509-536.
7. Anselin, L. and Rey, S. J. (2010). Advances in Spatial Science, Perspectives on Spatial Data Analysis, Springer-Verlag.
8. Anselin, L., Le Gallo, J. and Jayet, H. (2008). Spatial Panel Econometrics. Matyas. L. and Sevestre. P. (Eds.), the Econometrics of Panel Data. Fundamentals and Recent Developments in Theory and Practice, (pp: 901-969), Kluwer, Dordrecht.

9. Arbia, G. (2006). Spatial Econometrics-Statistical Foundations and Applications to Regional Convergence. Berlin: Springer Science & Business Media.
10. Baltagi. B. H. and Li D. (2006). Prediction in the Panel Data Model with Spatial Correlation, L. Florax R. J. G. M. and Rey S. J. (Eds.), Advances in Spatial Econometrics: Methodology, Tools and Applications, (pp: 283-295). Springer, Berlin.
11. Bera, A. K. and Yoon, M. J. (1993). Specification Testing with Locally Misspecified Alternatives. Econometric Theory, 9(4), 649-658.
12. Breusch, T. S. (1987). Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Random Effects Models, Journal of Econometrics, 36(3), 383-389.
13. Burridge, B. and Gordon, I. (1987). Unemployment in the British Metropolitan Labour Areas, Oxford Economic Papers, 33(2), 274-297.
14. Çütçü, İ. and Cenger, H. (2017). The Relationship between Foreign Trade and Unemployment in Turkey: Time Series Analysis with Structural Break, III. International Entrepreneurship, Employment and Career Congress. 12-15 October, Muğla.
15. Edwards, L. (2004). A Firm Level Analysis of Trade, Technology and Employment in South Africa, Journal of International Development, 16, 45–61.
16. Elhorst, J. P. (2013). Spatial Panel Models. Handbook of Regional Science. Heidelberg: Springer.
17. Elhorst, J. P. (2014). Linear Spatial Dependence Models for Cross-Section Data. Spatial Econometrics from Cross-Sectional Data to Spatial Panels, (pp:5-37), Heidelberg: Springer.
18. Erlat, G. (2000). Measuring the Impact of Trade Flows on Employment in the Turkish Manufacturing Industry, Applied Economics, 32(9), 1169-1180.
19. Erol, I.S. (2013). Active Employment Policies for Youth: Examples of Japan, Korea, China and Turkey. Turkish Heavy Industry and Service Sector Public Employers Union Labor Law and Economics Journal, 6(24),15-43.
20. Ersungur, Ş. M., Özdemir, D. and Tığtepe, E. (2021). The Effect of Foreign Trade on Employment: Panel Data Analysis on OECD Countries. Atatürk University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 35(4), 1335-1358.
21. Fu, X. and Balasubramanyam, V. N. (2005). Exports, Foreign Direct Investment and Employment: The Case of China, World Economy, 28(4), 607-625.
22. Gokcen, A. M. (2019). Employment Policy in Turkey. Istanbul University Faculty of Economics Journal, 33, (1-4).
23. Gözgör, G. and Pişkin, A. (2011). Unemployment and Foreign Trade: Generalized Moments Method for Regions in Turkey-Dynamic Panel Data Approach. Business and Economics Research Journal, 2(3), 121-138.
24. Greenaway, D., Hine. R. C. and Wright. P. (1998). An Empirical Assessment of the Impact Trade on Employment in the United Kingdom, European Journal of Political Economy, 15, 485-500.
25. Greenway, D., Robert, C. H. and Wright, P. (1999). An Empirical Assessment of the Impact of Trade on Employment in the United Kingdom. European Journal of Political Economy, 15(3), 485–500.
26. Güçlü, M. (2017). Regional Unemployment Disparities in Turkey, Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 20, 94–108.
27. Gül, E. and Kamacı, A. (2012). Effects of Foreign Trade on Growth: A Panel Data Analysis. International Journal of Alanya Business Faculty. 4 (3), 81-91.
28. Gülmez, Z. (2019). The Effect of Foreign Trade on Economic Growth and Employment (Master's Thesis), Karamanoglu Mehmetbey University. Social Sciences Institute.
29. Jenkins, R. (2004). Vietnam in the Global Economy: Trade, Employment and Poverty, Journal of International Development, Wiley, 16(1), 13-28.
30. Johnson, J. A. and Kneebone, R. D. (1991). Deriving Natural Rates of Unemployment for Sub-National Regions: The Case of Canadian Provinces, Applied Economics, 23 (8), 1305-1314.
31. Ko, K., Rangkakulnuwat, P., and Paweenawat, S. (2015). The Effect of International Trade on Labor Demand in ASEAN 5, Economics Bulletin, 35(2), 1034–104.
32. Kostov, P. (2010). Model Boosting for Spatial Weighting Matrix Selection in Spatial Lag Models, Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 37, 533–549.
33. LeSage, J. P. (1999). The Theory and Practice of Spatial Econometrics, Department of Economics University of Toledo, Ohio.
34. LeSage, J. P. (2008). An Introduction to Spatial Econometrics. Revue D'économie Industrielle [Online], 123.
35. Murphy, K. J. (1985). Geographic Differences in US. Unemployment Rates: A Variance Decomposition Approach, Economic Inquiry, 23(1), 135-158.
36. Ord, J. K. (1975). Estimation Methods for Models of Spatial Interaction, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 70, 120-126.
37. Partridge, M. D. and Rickman, D. S. (1995). Differences in State Unemployment Rates: The Role of Labor and Product Market Structural Shifts, Southern Economic Journal, 62(1), 89-106.
38. Rogerson, A. P. (2001). Statistical Methods for Geography. London: Sage Publications.
39. Şahin, A., Aktaş, E. and Tüzün Rad, S. (2021). Rural to Urgan Migration – Unemployment in Turkey: Todaro Paradox. Turkish Journal of Agricultural Economics, 27(1), 9-14.
40. Tandoğan, D. (2019). The Impact of Export on Employment: Panel Data Analysis for Regional Base in Turkey, Bingöl University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 9(18),799-814.
41. Taylor, J. (1996). Regional Problems and Policies: A European Perspective. Australasian Journal of Regional Studies, 2, 103-131.
42. Taylor, J. and Bradley, S. (1997). Unemployment in Europe: A Comparative Analysis of Regional Disparities in Germany, Italy and the UK, Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, 50(2), 221- 245.
43. Terzioğlu, M. K., Yücel, M. A., Demirkıran, S. and Acaroğlu, D. (2020). Spatial Effect of Urban-Innovation on Urbanization. İdealkent Journal of Urban Studies, 11 (30), 592-620.
44. TURKSTAT, (2021). Foreign Trade Indices. Access address: http://www.datatuik.gov.tr/ Newsletters=37484. TURKSTAT, (2022a). Foreign Trade Statistics Database. Access address: https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/ disticaretapp/menu.zul.
45. TURKSTAT, (2022b). Workforce Statistics Database. Access address: https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/ isgucuapp/isgucu.zul; https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn =72&locale=tr.
46. Viton, P. A. (2010). Notes on Spatial Econometric Models. City and Regional Planning, 870(3), 1-23.
47. Ward, M. D. and Gleditsch, K. S. (2008). An Introduction to Spatial Regression Models for the Social Sciences, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
48. Welsum, V. and Reif, X. (2006). The Share of Employment Potentially Affected by Offshoring-an Empirical Investigation, OECD Digital Economy Papers, 107, 1- 39.
49. www.sigortam.net (2023). www.sigortam.net. Access address: https://www.sigortam.net/4a-4b-4c-sigortali-nedir
50. Yeldan, Erinç (2010), “Global Crisis and Turkey: A Macroeconomic Assessment of the Effects of Fiscal Stimulus Measures on Employment and Labour Markets”, in Crisis and Turkey: Impact Analysis of Crisis Response Measures, International Labour Organization Publications, Ankara, 9-39.