Salgınların Hegemonik Geçişlere Etkisinin Ekonomi Politiği: 1918 İspanyol Gribi ve COVID-19 Karşılaştırması

Abstract

Dünya Sağlık Örgütü (DSÖ) Mayıs 2023 tarihli bildirisinde COVID-19 salgınının kamu sağlığını tehdit eden uluslararası olağanüstü hal durumunun sona erdiğini ilan etmiştir. İspanyol Gribi olarak da bilinen İnfluenza 1918 salgınının üzerinden bir asır geçmesiyle COVID-19 salgınının patlak vermiş olması ve Dünya Sistemleri Teorisi’nin hegemonik döngülere 100-150 yıllık bir süreç öngörmesi, bu çalışmanın çıkış noktalarını oluşturmuştur. Kuramsal çerçevesini Dünya Sistemleri Teorisi’nin oluşturduğu çalışma, dış ticaret dengeleri ve finans verileri üzerinden İspanyol Gribi sırasında Birleşik Krallık-ABD, COVID-19 sırasında ise ABD-Çin hegemonik rekabetinin politik ekonomisini incelemektedir. Ayrıca, yükselen hegemonun vatandaşlarına bahsettiği refah ve çıkar unsurlarından yola çıkılarak kişi başına GSYH verileri çalışmanın inceleme alanına dahil edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, 1918 Gribi sürecinde Birleşik Krallık ile ABD arasında; COVID-19 sırasında ise ABD ile Çin arasında seyreden karşılaştırmalı kişi başına GSYH, sanayi üretimi, dış ticaret ve finans verileri, pandemilerin hegemonik geçiş süreçlerini tetiklediğini ve hızlandırdığını ortaya koymuştur.

Keywords

• Hegemonik Geçişler
• Salgınlar
• İspanyol Gribi
• COVID-19
• Dünya Sistemleri Teorisi

The Political Economy of Pandemics’ Influence On Hegemonic Shifts: A Comparison of the Influenza of 1918 and COVID-19

Abstract

Following the World Health Organization (WHO)'s declaration of ending the public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) for the COVID-19 pandemic in May 2023, this study seizes the opportune moment to analyze it alongside its historical precedent, the Influenza of 1918, commonly known as the Spanish flu. Amid the ongoing US-China rivalry for global leadership, the COVID-19 pandemic broke out when a century had elapsed since the Influenza of 1918. This analysis aims to test the hegemonic cycles approach of the World Systems Theory and to contribute to the literature of international political economy. The hegemonic cycles approach of the World Systems Theory calls for an analysis of the figures of industrial production, international trade, and finance to judge the changes within the international economy as a hegemonic shift, which occurs at 100-150 years in a circular nature. This study furthermore adds up the figures of GDP per capita to the analysis to provide insight into the level of welfare offered by the ascending hegemons to their citizens vis-à-vis the descending ones. Thus, changes in GDP per capita, industrial production, foreign trade, and finances of the UK vs. the US during the Influenza of 1918, and the US vs. China during COVID-19 provide insights into the political economy of pandemics in terms of their impact on changing hegemonic orders. The findings reveal that both pandemics triggered a period of hegemonic shift that was preeminent on economic terms within the international order.

Keywords

• Hegemonic Shifts
• Pandemics
• Influenza of 1918
• COVID-19
• World Systems Theory

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