The Impact of Financial Development and Technological Innovations on Carbon Emissions in Türkiye: Evidence from the RALS-EG Test Approach

Abstract

This study examines the impact of economic growth, financial development, and technological innovation on carbon emissions in Turkey from 1984 to 2021. The analysis employs the RALS-ADF and ADF unit root tests, the RALS-EG and Bayer-Hanck cointegration tests, the FMOLS estimation method, and the Fourier-based Granger causality test. The empirical findings reveal that economic growth is the strongest driver of carbon emissions, while financial development has a mitigating effect on carbon emissions. Technological innovation, however, leads to a limited increase in emissions. Moreover, the causality analysis reveals bidirectional relationships between economic growth and emissions, as well as between financial development and emissions. In contrast, an asymmetric causality is found between emissions and technology. Overall, the results suggest that Turkey should design low-carbon growth strategies, strengthen its financial system to support green investments, and reorient technology policies toward renewable energy and environmentally friendly practices.

Keywords

• Carbon Emissions
• Technological Innovations
• RALS-EG

Türkiye'de Finansal Gelişme ve Teknolojik Yeniliklerin Karbon Emisyonu Üzerindeki Etkisi: RALS Yaklaşımından Elde Edilen Kanıtlar

Öz

Bu çalışma, 1984–2021 dönemi için Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme, finansal gelişme ve teknolojik yeniliklerin karbon emisyonları üzerindeki etkilerini incelemektedir. Analizde RALS-ADF ve ADF birim kök testleri, RALS-EG ve Bayer-Hanck eşbütünleşme testleri, FMOLS tahmin yöntemi ve Fourier tabanlı Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Ampirik bulgular, ekonomik büyümenin karbon emisyonlarını en güçlü biçimde artırdığını, finansal gelişmenin emisyonları azaltıcı yönde etkili olduğunu, teknolojik yeniliklerin ise sınırlı düzeyde emisyon artışına yol açtığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca, nedensellik analizleri ekonomik büyüme ile emisyonlar ve finansal gelişme ile emisyonlar arasında çift yönlü ilişkiler olduğunu, emisyonlar ile teknoloji arasında ise asimetrik bir nedensellik bulunduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Sonuçlar, Türkiye’nin düşük karbonlu büyüme stratejileri geliştirmesi, finansal sistemin yeşil yatırımları desteklemesi ve teknoloji politikalarının yenilenebilir enerji ve çevre dostu uygulamalara yönlendirilmesi gerektiğine işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Karbon Emisyonu
• Teknolojik Yenilikler
• RALS-EG

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