The Effects of Climate Change on Food and Consumer Price Inflation in Türkiye: ARDL Bound Test Approach

Abstract

Climate change, through increasing extreme weather events and gradual global warming, negatively impacts agricultural productivity, production capacity, and energy costs. This situation threatens price stability and poses significant risks for monetary policy. In the literature, these effects are often described by concepts such as "heatflation" and "climateflation," with their impacts on food prices and consumer inflation being frequently discussed in recent years. The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of climate change on food and consumer inflation in Türkiye for the period 1990-2021, using the ARDL bounds testing approach and Toda-Yamamoto causality tests. The findings reveal that climate change exerts long-term inflationary pressures on both food and consumer inflation. Additionally, a bidirectional causality relationship between climate change and food and consumer inflation has been identified. These results highlight the importance of central banks expanding their policy tools to address climate risks and manage the upward pressures on price stability caused by climate change.

Keywords

• Climate Change
• Inflation
• ARDL

Türkiye’de İklim Değişikliğinin Gıda ve Tüketici Enflasyonu Üzerindeki Etkileri: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Öz

İklim değişikliği, artan aşırı hava olayları ve kademeli küresel ısınma yoluyla tarımsal verimlilik, üretim kapasitesi ve enerji maliyetleri üzerinde olumsuz etkiler yaratmaktadır. Bu durum, fiyat istikrarını tehdit ederek para politikası açısından önemli riskler doğurmaktadır. Literatürde “ısıflasyon” ve “iklimflasyon” gibi kavramlarla ifade edilen bu etkilerin, özellikle gıda fiyatları ve tüketici enflasyonu üzerindeki yansımaları son yıllarda sıklıkla tartışılmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de iklim değişikliğinin gıda ve tüketici enflasyonu üzerindeki etkilerini 1990-2021 dönemi için ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı ve Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testlerini kullanarak analiz etmektir. Bulgular, iklim değişikliğinin gıda ve tüketici enflasyonu üzerinde uzun dönemli enflasyonist baskılara yol açtığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca, iklim değişikliği ile gıda ve tüketici enflasyonu arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinin mevcut olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, merkez bankalarının politika araçlarını iklim değişikliği ile mücadeleye yönelik genişleterek, iklim risklerinin fiyat istikrarı üzerindeki yukarı yönlü baskısını yönetmesinin önemini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İklim Değişikliği
• Enflasyon
• ARDL

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