MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT: THE CASE OF POLAND

Year 2019, Issue: 22, 93 - 106, 01.01.2019

Pelin Öge Güney

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.404607

Cited By: 3

Abstract

Yatırım
kararlarının analizi, yatırımlardaki dalgalanmaların ekonomik performans
üzerindeki etkileri nedeniyle önemli makro ekonomik konulardan biridir.
Belirsizliğin yatırım kararları üzerinde etkisi varsa, yatırım modellerinin bu
etkiyi dikkate almaları gerektiği ileri sürülmektedir. Bu nedenle, son
zamanlarda belirsizliğin yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisi teorik ve ampirik
literatürde analiz edilmektedir. Gelişmekte olan ülkeler, gelişmiş ülkelere göre
daha fazla belirsizlik ile karşı karşıya olmalarına rağmen, belirsizlik ve
yatırım ilişkisi üzerine mevcut literatürün çoğu gelişmiş ülkeleri ele
almaktadır. Bu çalışmada gelişmekte olan bir ülke olan Polonya’da makro
ekonomik belirsizliklerin özel yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisini analiz ettik.
Belirsizliği ölçmek için genelleştirilmiş otoregresif koşullu değişen varyans
(GARCH) modeli kurduk. Sonra eşbütünleşim analizi için sınır testi yaklaşımını
uyguladık. Değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişki bulunduğundan, dinamik
ilişkiyi görmek için hata düzeltme modeli kullandık. Sonuçlarımız, Polonya’da
reel döviz kuru, enflasyon ve büyüme belirsizliklerinin özel yatırımları
negatif yönde etkilediğini göstermektedir. Böylece, Polonya’da makro ekonomik
istikrarın yatırımları devamlılığı için gerekli bir koşul olduğu sonucuna
vardık.

Keywords

Özel Yatırımlar, Enflasyon Belirsizliği, Döviz Kuru Belirsizliği, Sınır Testi

MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT: THE CASE OF POLAND

Abstract

Analysis of investment decisions is an
important macroeconomic subject due to the role of fluctuations in investments
on the economic performance. It is argued that investment models need to take
this effect into account if uncertainty has an impact on investment. Therefore,
the effects of uncertainty on investments have recently been analyzed in the
theoretical and empirical literature. While developing economies face more
uncertainty than industrial countries do, most empirical studies consider the uncertainty-investment
relationship for developed counties. In this paper, we analyzed the effect of the
macro economic uncertainties on private investment in a developing county: Poland.
We constructed a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity
(GARCH) model to measure uncertainties. Then, we employed the bound testing
procedure to cointegration analysis. Since our findings indicate a long-term
relationship of the variables, we adopt an error correction model to capture
the dynamic relationship. Our estimates imply that the real exchange rate,
inflation and growth uncertainties effect private investments negatively in
Poland. Therefore, we can conclude that macroeconomic
stabilization is a necessary condition for the continuity of investments in
Poland.

Keywords

Private Investment, Inflation Uncertainty, Exchange Rate Uncertainty, Bound Testing

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