TÜRKİYE VE AZERBAYCAN’DA TİCARİ AÇIKLIK, BANKA KREDİLERİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: DİNAMİK DENGELERİN AMPİRİK ANALİZİ

Year 2025, Issue: 49, 75 - 88, 29.10.2025

Atilla Ünlü

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1629581

Abstract

Türkiye Cumhuriyeti’nin tarihsel ve kültürel bağlarının en güçlü olduğu ülkelerden biri Azerbaycan Cumhuriyeti’dir. İki ülke arasındaki ilişkiler 2000’li yıllara kadar sınırlı bir düzeyde seyretmiş, ancak bu tarihten sonra Türk dış politikasındaki değişimle birlikte kayda değer bir ivme kazanmıştır. Bu kapsamda iki ülke arasındaki ekonomik derinleşmenin dinamiklerini belirlemek amacıyla hazırlanan bu çalışmada, 1992-2023 yılları arasında Türkiye ve Azerbaycan’da bankaların özel sektöre sağladığı krediler ile ticari açıklığın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Çalışmada, değişkenlerin durağanlık düzeyini belirlemek için ADF birim kök testi, seriler arasındaki eş bütünleşme ilişkisini incelemek için ARDL sınır testi, değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini analiz etmek için Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi ve son olarak parametre katsayı tahmin analizi yapılmıştır. Analiz bulguları, Türkiye’de bankaların özel sektöre sağladığı krediler ile ticari açıklığın ekonomik büyüme üzerinde çift yönlü bir nedenselik ilişkisine sahip olduğunu, Azerbaycan’da ise bu ilişkinin daha sınırlı kaldığı yönündedir. Katsayı tahmin analizinde ise, Türkiye’de hem krediler hem de ticari açıklık ekonomik büyüme üzerinde pozitif bir etki oluşturduğu, Azerbaycan’da ise özellikle ticari açıklığın ekonomik büyüme üzerinde güçlü ve belirleyici bir etkiye sahip olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

Ekonomik Büyüme , Krediler , Ticari Açıklık , Nedensellik.

TRADE OPENNESS, BANK LOANS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TÜRKİYE AND AZERBAIJAN: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF DYNAMIC EQUILIBRIA

Abstract

One of the countries with which the Republic of Türkiye shares the strongest historical and cultural ties is the Republic of Azerbaijan. While relations between the two nations remained relatively limited until the 2000s, they gained significant momentum thereafter, driven by shifts in Turkish foreign policy. Against this backdrop, the present study investigates the dynamics of economic deepening between the two countries by examining the impact of bank loans to the private sector and trade openness on economic growth over the period 1992–2023. Methodologically, the analysis applies the ADF unit root test to assess the stationarity properties of the variables, the ARDL bounds test to explore long-run cointegration relationships, the Toda–Yamamoto causality test to identify causal linkages, and coefficient estimation to evaluate parameter effects. The empirical findings suggest that in Türkiye, bank lending to the private sector and trade openness are both bidirectionally linked with economic growth, whereas in Azerbaijan the relationship is more limited. Furthermore, coefficient estimates indicate that while both credit expansion and trade openness positively influence growth in Türkiye, it is trade openness in particular that exerts a strong and decisive effect on economic growth in Azerbaijan.

Keywords

Economic Growth , Credits , Trade Openness , Causality.

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