An Analysis of the Income Convergence for the G20 Countries by Panel Unit Roort Tests

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 6, 91 - 106, 31.12.2013

Muhammed Tıraşoğlu

Öz

The convergence hypothesis, an extraction of the basic neoclassical growth theory put forward by Solow in 1956, has become one of the subjects which are of most interest macroeconomic literature since the 1980s. In this study, the convergence hypothesis are examined by panel unit root tests using per capita real income for the so called period 1969-2011 for G20 countries. According to the results, the real per capita income for the so called period under review is found not to be in convergence with the average per capita income level of the G20 countries. In addition, real per capita income level of average per capita income countries in the G20 countries was compared to that of European Union and the United States and it is concluded that it is not in convergence with either of these.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Convergence, Income Convergence, G20 Countries, Panel Unit Root

G20 Ülkeleri İçin Gelir Yakınsama Analizinin Panel Birim Kök Testleri İle İncelenmesi

Öz

Solow tarafından 1956’da ortaya konan Neoklasik Büyüme Teorisinin temel çıkarımı olan yakınsama hipotezi, makro iktisat yazınında 1980’lerden itibaren en fazla ilgiyi gören konulardan bir tanesi haline gelmiştir. Bu çalışmada G20 ülkeleri için 1969-2011 dönemine ait kişi başına reel gelir kullanılarak yakınsama hipotezi panel birim kök testleri ile incelenmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre incelenen dönem için G20 ülkelerinin reel kişi başına gelirlerinin G20 ülkelerinin ortalama kişi başına gelir düzeyine yakınsamadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Çalışmada ayrıca, G20 ülkelerinin reel kişi başına gelirlerinin Avrupa Birliği ülkelerinin ortalama kişi başına gelir düzeyine ve Amerika’nın kişi başına gelir düzeyine yakınsayıp yakınsamadığı incelenmiş ve elde edilen sonuçlara göre bu iki gelir düzeyine de yakınsamadığı sonucuna varılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yakınsama, Gelir Yakınsaması, G20 ülkeleri, Panel Birim Kök

Kaynakça

• Arısoy, İbrahim, Yamak, Rahmi (2009), “Türkiye’de Bölgesel Yakınsama Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım”, 10. Ekonometri ve İstatistik sempozyumu, Atatürk Üniversitesi, Erzurum.
• Ateş, Şanlı (1996), “Ekonomik Büyümeye Yaklaşımlar ve Yakınsama Sorunu”, Çukurova Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler fakülte Dergisi, Cilt: 6, Sayı:1, s.1-16.
• Bai, Jushan, Ng, Serena (2004), “A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration”, Econometrica, Vol:72, No:4, pp. 1127-1177.
• Barro, Robert J. (1991), “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol:106, No:2, pp.407-443.
• Barro, Robert J., Sala-i Martin, Xavier (1992), “Convergence”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol:100, No:2, pp.223-251.
• Bernard, Andrew B., Durlauf, Steven N. (1996), “Interpreting Test of the Convergence Hypothesis”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol: 71, pp. 161-173.
• Breitung, Jörg (2000), “The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data” advances in Econometrics, Vol:15: Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamics Panels, Ed. B.H. Baltagi, Amsterdam, JAI Press, pp.161-178.
• Darne, Oliver, Biebolt, Claude (2005), “Non-Stationarity Tests in Macroeconomics Time Series”, New trends in macroeconomics, Ed. Claude Diebolt, Catherine Kyrtsou, Berlin, Springer Berlin Heidelberg.
• Dawson, John W., Sen, Amit (2007) “New Evidence on the Convergence of International Income From A Group of 29 Countries”, Empirical Economics, Vol:33, No:2, pp. 199-230.
• De Long, Bradford J. (1998), “Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: A Comment”, the american Economic Review, Vol:78, No:5, pp.1138-1154.
• Dowrick, S., Nguyen, D. (1989), “OECD Comperative Economic Growth 1950-1985: Catch-Up and Convergence”, the american Economic Review, Vol:79, No:5, pp. 1010-1030.
• Evans, Paul, Karras, Georgios (1996) “Do Economies Convergence? Evidence from a Panel of U.S. States”, the Review of Economics and statistics, Vol:78, No:3, pp.384-388.
• Hadri, Kaddour (2000), “Testing for Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panel Data”, Econometrics Journal, Vol:3, pp.148-161.
• Haris, Richard D.F., Tzavalis, Elias (1999), “Inference for Unit Roots in Dynamic Panels Where the Time Dimension is Fixed”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol:91, pp.201-226.
• Im, Kyung So, Pesaran, M. Hashem, Shin, Yongcheol (2003), “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol:115, pp.53-74.
• Islam, Nazrul (2003) “What Have We Learnt From The Convergence Debate?”, Journal of Economic surveys, Vol. 17, No. 3, , pp. 309-362.
• Jan, Sajjad Ahmad, Chaudhary, A.R. (2011), “Testing the Conditional Convergence Hypothesis for Pakistan”, Pak. J. Commer. soc. sci., Vol:5, No:1, pp.117-128.
• King, Robert G., Rebelo, SergioT. (1983), “Transitional Dynamics and Economic Growth in the Neoclassical Model”, the american Economic Review, Vol:83, No:4, pp.908-931.
• Levin, Andrew, Lin, Chien-Fu, Chu, Chia-Shang James (2002), “Unit Roots Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol:108, pp.1-24.
• Li, Qing, Papell, David (1999), “Convergence of International Output Time Series Evidence for 16 OECD Countries”, ınternational Review of Economics and finance, Vol:8, pp.267-280.
• Maddala, G.S., Wu, S. (1999), “A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and New Simple Test”, oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, Vol:61, pp.631-652.
• Mankiw, N. Gregory, Romer, David, Weil, David N. (1992) “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol:107, No:2, pp.407-437.
• Moon, Hyungsik Roger, Perron Benoit (2004), “Testing for a Unit Root in Panels with Dynamic Factors” Journal of Econometrics, Vol:122, pp.81-126.
• Murthy, N. R. Vasudeva, Ukpolo, Victor (1999), “A Test of Conditional Convergence Hypothesis: Econometric Evidence from African Countries”, Economics Letter, Vol:65, No:2, pp.249-253.
• Nahar, S., Inder, B. (2002), “Testing Convergence in Economic Growth for OECD Countries”, applied Economics, Vol:34, pp.2011-2022.
• Orhan, Osman Z., Erdoğan, Seyfettin (2010), genel Ekonomi, Umuttepe Yayınları, İkinci Baskı, Kocaeli.
• Pesaran, M. Hashem (2007), “A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence”, Journal of applied Econometrics, Vol:22, pp.265-312.
• Philips, Peter C.B., Sul, Donggyu (2003), “Dynamic Panel Estimation and Homogeneity Testing under Cross Section Dependence”, the Econometrics Journal, Vol:6, pp.217-259.
• Rassekh, Farhad (1998) “The Convergence Hypothesis: History, Theory, and Evidence”, open Economies Review, Vol: 9, No: 1, pp.85-105.
• Rey, Sergio J., Montouri, Brett D. (1998), “US Regional Income Convergence: A Spatial Econometric Perspective”, Regional studies, Vol:33, No:2, pp.143-156.
• Romer, Paul M. (1986), “Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth”, the Journal of Political Economy, Vol:94, No:5, pp.1002-1037.
• Romer, David (2006), advanced macroeconomics, McGraw-Hill Irwin, Third Edition, New York- ABD.
• Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X. (1996), “The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis”, the Economic Journal, Vol:106, pp.1019-1036.
• Saraçoğlu, Bedriye, Doğan, Nikhet (2005), “Avrupa Birliği Ülkeleri ve Aday Ülkelerin Yakınsama Analizi”, vıı. ulusal Ekonometri ve İstatistik sempozyumu, İstanbul, s.1-9.
• Solow, Robert M. (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol: 70 No:1, pp. 65-94.
• Şimsek, Nevzat (2008), türkiye’nin Endüstri İçi Dış ticaretinin analizi, Beta Basım Yayım, İstanbul.
• Tatoğlu, Ferda Yerdelen (2012a), Panel veri Ekonometrisi - stata uygulamalı, Beta Basım Yayım, İstanbul.
• Tatoğlu, Ferda Yerdelen (2012b), İleri Panel veri analizi- stata uygulamalı, Beta Basım Yayım, İstanbul.
• Ünsal, Erdal M. (2007), makro İktisat, İmaj Yayıncılık, Yedinci Baksı, Ankara.