Ekonomi Politika Belirsizliği İthalat Üzerinde Etkili midir? Panel Veri Analizinden Kanıtlar

Abstract

Ekonomide belirsizlik, dış ticaret ve döviz kuru gibi makro ekonomik değişkenler üzerinde etkili olabilmektedir. Küreselleşmenin ilerlemesi ve ekonomilerin karşılıklı bağımlılığının artmasıyla birlikte uluslararası ticaret, ekonomide yaşanan belirsizlik ortamından güçlü bir şekilde etkilenmektedir. Literatürde ekonomi politika belirsizliğinin dış ticaret üzerindeki etkilerine ilişkin tam olarak bir görüş birliği bulunmamakla birlikte, yapılan çalışmalar sonucunda ortaya çıkan genel görüş, belirsizliğin ticaret akımlarını baskıladığı yönündedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı ekonomi politika belirsizliğinin 18 ülkenin ithalatı üzerindeki etkisini, 1997-2019 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak panel veri teknikleri ile analiz etmektir. Analizde ele alınan ülke grubu verilere erişim sıkıntısı olmaması göz önünde bulundurularak seçilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar incelenen dönemde ele alınan tüm ülkelerde ekonomi politika belirsizliğinin ithalatı negatif yönde etkilediğini göstermektedir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Ekonomi Politika Belirsizliği, İthalat, Panel Veri Analizi JEL Sınıflandırması: C33, D81, F14

Keywords

• Ekonomi Politika Belirsizliği
• İthalat
• Panel Veri Analizi

Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Import? Evidence from Panel Data Analysis

Abstract

Uncertainty in the economy can have an impact on macroeconomic variables such as foreign trade and exchange rates. With the advancement of globalization and the increasing interdependence of economies, international trade is strongly affected by the uncertainty in the economy. Although there is no consensus in the literature regarding the effects of economic policy uncertainty on foreign trade, the general view emerged as a result of studies is that uncertainty suppresses trade flows. The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of economic policy uncertainty on the imports of 18 countries by using panel data techniques using annual data for the period 1997-2019. The country group discussed in the analysis was chosen considering the lack of access to data. The results show that economic policy uncertainty affects imports negatively in all countries examined in the period under review. Key Words: Economic Policy Uncertainty, Import, Panel Data Analysis JEL Classification: C33, D81, F14

Keywords

• Economic Policy Uncertainty
• Import
• Panel Data Analysis

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